ISIS strained

The ISIS leadership may at last be beginning to feel the pinch of concerted international efforts against it, both militarily and through diplomatic channels. It seems that the group is facing increasing resistance in the territories it holds: last week it executed fifty Sunni tribesmen and women in a mass killing in al-Anbar province. Meanwhile the Iraqi government claims that 322 tribesmen have been executed in recent days in the north-west provinces of the country.

Losing the tacit support of the Iraqi Sunni tribes would be devastating to the Islamic State. They have been able to take and hold swathes of territory in Anbar province and around Mosul at least in part because of the enmity felt by Sunnis in the north toward the Shi’ite dominated government of Nouri al-Maliki, and the fury in response to their lands effectively  becoming occupied by a Shi’ite army comprising soldiers almost entirely from another part of the country. One expert speaking in Washington last week compared the Iraqi army mission in the north to a foreign occupation, noting the difference in religion, ethnicity, and even dialect between the soldiers and civilians.

The docility of the tribes has made administering and holding captured territory much easier for ISIS. It allows resources to be allocated to keeping the pressure on Baghdad, while continuing the siege on Kobani and making advances on Aleppo. If ISIS begins to face trouble in its ‘heartland’ it will find it much harder to maintain its momentum and keep lines of supply and reinforcement open.

In places that momentum is already being halted. It has suffered (and is continuing to suffer) a setback in Kobani, which has turned into a symbolic fight. The town is not strategically important in military terms, but by inflicting defeat after defeat on the ISIS war machine the Kurds (and their western allies) have shown the Middle East that Islamic State is neither invincible nor unstoppable. The jihadis’ determination to not lose the fight for Kobani has dictated the coalition’s strategy in the area: jihadi fighters are concentrating themselves in a tiny area where normally they are dispersed. This makes airstrikes much more devastating. It seems hard to believe that not taking Kobani would be a strategic disaster for ISIS in military terms. However, by continuing to concentrate their forces, ISIS has shown a ‘revealed preference’. It would rather suffer a pyrrhic victory than lose the territory but preserve its military strength.

The preference is understandable. Such a high profile loss will show both potential recruits and sympathizers that an Islamic State victory is not guaranteed. Perhaps more importantly, it will demonstrate to those living inside of the self-proclaimed Caliphate that ISIS might not be here to stay after all.

This comes back to the Sunni tribes. The timing of the Islamic State’s mass executions in Anbar, coinciding as it does with a loss of momentum, points to two possibilities. Either members of the Sunni tribes have realized that ISIS is on the back foot and have become more active in resisting, or the leadership of the Islamic State is afraid they might begin resisting and is attempting to cow any dissent. They have good reason to be afraid: back in 2006 the Sahwa (Awakening) movement pushed al-Qaeda out of Anbar. A second awakening could spell the end of the Islamic State as a viable force in Iraq. By executing tribesmen, ISIS may be risking pushing Sunnis further towards active resistance.

It is clear that cracks are now appearing on the inside of the Caliphate. Now is the time to exploit those cracks to the full. Close support for local forces, both those fighting the jihadis and those living in occupied territory, combined with ongoing military action by the coalition might turn the tide. Fighting the Islamic State can never just be about number of bombs dropped and militants killed. Local peoples must be helped, both to oust the extremists and to rebuild a stable state. Let us hope that moving past the midterms a decisive strategy will be implemented.