Small beer, drink up

The British and German foreign ministers in a letter last week proposed a revision in European Union policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina. Instead of continuing to insist on constitutional reform to meet the requirements of a European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) decision known as Sejdic-Finci, they propose that Bosnian leaders commit in writing to future reform (including the required constitutional revision). In return, the European Commission would put into force the already negotiated Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA). Only after the reform proposals are implemented Bosnia would get candidacy for EU membership, which brings substantial resources.

This is a small beer version of a much bolder proposal that has been kicking around Europe and the Balkans:  give Bosnia quick candidacy status to get it into the accession process, which would then be expected to pry the needed reforms from the iron grip of the country’s nationalist politicians. Instead of that big bang approach, this proposal asks for a promise of reform before the SAA is implemented but postpones the difficult Sejdic-Finci issue, resolution of which had heretofore been a prerequisite to the SAA.

This defies the normal rules of parenting:  giving the kid a pass, and a reward, but asking for a promise of compliance and saying next time you’ll really have to do what I ask is not generally regarded as a path to success in shaping a responsible teen. The logic, if there is any, lies in giving Bosnian leaders a stake in moving along the path towards the EU. Something like that was done for Belgrade, rewarding it with candidacy status when it signed last year’s agreement with Pristina on reintegration of the Serb majority north with the rest of Kosovo.

The main argument in favor of this approach is that nothing else has worked. The Bosnians have stiffed the EU repeatedly. Maybe this will steer around their recalcitrance. British and German backing gives the idea some oomph. And it may be that throwing in the Sejdic-Finci reform with other issues will provide an opportunity for tradeoffs that hasn’t existed in the past.

The Americans have come out in support of the German-British initiative. They no doubt have doubts, but figure it is better to close ranks with the Europeans than leave any daylight between Washington and Berlin or Washington and London. And the writing of a reform package opens up the possibility of more profound constitutional reform. The Americans, who wrote the damnably complicated Dayton constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, know all too well that the problems that have rendered Bosnia a basket case lie in the interstices of its elaborate power-sharing and ethnic protection arrangements, which go far beyond the ethnic restrictions on members of the presidency.

A genuine effort to render the many layers of government in Bosnia more functional and effective would of course be welcome. The Germans and British no doubt are sincerely aiming for that objective. The question is whether the EU, with American support, can muster the incentives necessary to dislodge Bosnian leaders from their comfortable ethnic polarization. Sarajevo is still in the process of forming its new government, based on October elections that returned mostly ethnic nationalists back to power, with a scattering of more Europe-focused (relative) liberals. Last time around, it took 16 months to get the new government in place. Let’s hope the British/German letter will push that process as well as serious reform in the right direction.

It may be small beer, but it’s all that’s on offer. Best to drink  up.

PS: for a more critical and detailed look at the small beer and how it might be strengthened, see the Democratization Policy Council brief.