Day: December 1, 2014

Dealing with Sisi

Posted in Uncategorized - December 1, 2014 - 1 Comment

Those of us who believed that Egypt in 2011 and 2012 underwent an irreversible change were wrong. President Sisi has succeeded in restoring the military autocracy–albeit clothed in a business suit–and marginalizing once again the Muslim Brotherhood. The media are cowed, demonstrations are brutally repressed, civil society is walking the straight and narrow, courts have condemned hundreds to death after cursory show trials, Mubarak and his sons are acquitted, and counter-terrorism decrees are used to inhibit political dissent. Most Egyptians, tired of disorder and insecurity, have abandoned the streets and returned to earning their  meager livelihoods.

The one area of substantial reform is the economy. Sisi has cut food and fuel subsidies and raised taxes. This has gotten him a good report card from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), presumably laying the basis for an eventual multi-billioin dollar loan if need be. In the meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are picking up the tab, to the tune of tens of billions. Sisi has also initiated a major enlargement of the Suez Canal, said to be financed domestically, that is supposed to be completed in a year and more than double Canal revenue. Egyptians, not surprisingly, are enthusiastic about big public works projects.

Egyptian politics are another story. Sisi has postponed parliamentary elections to late March 2015. In the meanwhile he rules by decree. The parliamentary electoral law, drafted after the coup of July 2013 but before Sisi took over the presidency, provides for the overwhelming majority (80%) of parliamentary seats to be awarded to individual candidates rather than party lists. This is similar to the system in use during the Mubarak dictatorship. It is expected to limit party-based opposition and ensure election of relatively well-known and well-off government supporters and patronage bosses.

Two important things remain in limbo:

  • about half of US military assistance;
  • most of those arrested, both liberals and Islamists since the coup.

The two things are related. The still-suspended US military assistance for FY2014 is conditional on “taking steps to govern democratically.”  There is no presidential waiver provided from this requirement, but there are exemptions for existing contracts, specific security purposes (counterterrorism, border security, nonproliferation, and Sinai development programs) and items that do not require delivery in Egypt (that’s to make sure the US contractors get paid for things they produce but can’t deliver).

Some will claim that parliamentary elections, on top of the constitutional referendum and presidential election already held, should be sufficient to meet the democracy standard. Others, including me, think a much broader focus is necessary. The managers of the legislation suggested this:

steps taken by the newly elected Government to protect human rights and the rule of law, including the rights of women and religious minorities.
 At the very least, there should be an end to excessive imprisonment of political opponents. They come in many flavors:  Al Jazeera and other journalists, Muslim Brotherhood cadres (including former President Morsi himself) and liberal dissidents, some of whom led the original 2011 revolution that unseated Mubarak. It is high time–I’d say way past time–that Sisi respond to the many requests Washington has made that he release at least some of these prisoners.
My personal concern is for Ahmed Maher, one of the April 6 Movement leaders condemned to three years imprisonment for failing to apply for a demonstration permit. But that is only because I know Ahmed, who admittedly does represent a long-term risk for any regime that fails to respect human rights. He has been unstinting in his allegiance to freedom of expression but has recently suspended his hunger strike pending a January 27 appeal. I am grateful that he is allowing the legal process to run its course.
In the meanwhile, the security situation in Egypt remains dicey, especially in northern Sinai and along the Israeli border. This is a real problem, not an imaginary one. It is also a problem that Washington should worry about. President Sisi needs to refocus his attention on the threat of truly violent Egyptian groups like Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, at least some of whose militants have pledged allegiance (bay’ah) to the Islamic State. If he fails to do so, there is really no point in transferring all that remaining military hardware.
PS: What I didn’t know earlier today when I posted this is that tomorrow is Ahmed’s birthday. I’ll save my happy birthday for a tweet tomorrow.
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