Dealing with Sisi

Those of us who believed that Egypt in 2011 and 2012 underwent an irreversible change were wrong. President Sisi has succeeded in restoring the military autocracy–albeit clothed in a business suit–and marginalizing once again the Muslim Brotherhood. The media are cowed, demonstrations are brutally repressed, civil society is walking the straight and narrow, courts have condemned hundreds to death after cursory show trials, Mubarak and his sons are acquitted, and counter-terrorism decrees are used to inhibit political dissent. Most Egyptians, tired of disorder and insecurity, have abandoned the streets and returned to earning their  meager livelihoods.

The one area of substantial reform is the economy. Sisi has cut food and fuel subsidies and raised taxes. This has gotten him a good report card from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), presumably laying the basis for an eventual multi-billioin dollar loan if need be. In the meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are picking up the tab, to the tune of tens of billions. Sisi has also initiated a major enlargement of the Suez Canal, said to be financed domestically, that is supposed to be completed in a year and more than double Canal revenue. Egyptians, not surprisingly, are enthusiastic about big public works projects.

Egyptian politics are another story. Sisi has postponed parliamentary elections to late March 2015. In the meanwhile he rules by decree. The parliamentary electoral law, drafted after the coup of July 2013 but before Sisi took over the presidency, provides for the overwhelming majority (80%) of parliamentary seats to be awarded to individual candidates rather than party lists. This is similar to the system in use during the Mubarak dictatorship. It is expected to limit party-based opposition and ensure election of relatively well-known and well-off government supporters and patronage bosses.

Two important things remain in limbo:

• about half of US military assistance;
• most of those arrested, both liberals and Islamists since the coup.

The two things are related. The still-suspended US military assistance for FY2014 is conditional on “taking steps to govern democratically.”  There is no presidential waiver provided from this requirement, but there are exemptions for existing contracts, specific security purposes (counterterrorism, border security, nonproliferation, and Sinai development programs) and items that do not require delivery in Egypt (that’s to make sure the US contractors get paid for things they produce but can’t deliver).

Some will claim that parliamentary elections, on top of the constitutional referendum and presidential election already held, should be sufficient to meet the democracy standard. Others, including me, think a much broader focus is necessary. The managers of the legislation suggested this:

steps taken by the newly elected Government to protect human rights and the rule of law, including the rights of women and religious minorities.