Month: February 2015
Couphobia
Fear of coups (couphobia?) has broken out in all too many places. Turkey’s President Erdogan is cracking down on the Gulen movement members for fear they are plotting against him. Russia’s President Putin has done the same with foreign funding of nongovernmental organizations. Egypt’s President Sisi fears the Muslim Brotherhood will do to him what he has done to their (former) President Morsi, who languishes in prison.
Even in Macedonia, an EU candidate country, the Prime Minister says the opposition was plotting to oust him. Then again, the United States is said to be orchestrating an anti-Victor Orbán coup d’état in EU member Hungary.
I can’t be sure all these claims are as baseless as that last one. Washington just doesn’t care enough about Hungary to engineer a coup there. My guess is that Sisi has plenty to worry about, as he has vastly overdone the repression, creating a growing reservoir of resentment that might fuel an effort to oust him one day, though Egyptians are so tired of disorder (and the army so satiated) that it is unlikely a coup there would be popular. Erdogan and Putin are likewise doing their best to fulfill their own prophecies by making life hard for their legitimate opponents, whose natural reaction will be to think about their options. A coup might be one of them.
Then there are the guys–and they are guys–who really should fear a coup. Syria’s President Asad has destroyed his country in order to prevent anyone else from challenging his hold on power. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un presumably thinks he protected himself, but who knows which uncle or cousin still alive might make the attempt?
Yemen’s President Hadi is facing a coup in everything but name. The Houthi rebels who have him trapped don’t want to displace him, partly for fear that would end military assistance against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula from the Americans the Houthis love to hate. Libya can’t have a coup because it is unclear who has power. It is having a civil war instead.
All the couphobiacs should remember Nouri al Maliki. He was so afraid of a coup that he appointed cronies to command his army and grabbed as much direct control over the other institutions of the state as he could. The result was collapse of the Iraqi Security Forces when faced with the Islamic State and his removal from power because even the Iranians and his own Dawa party turned against him. It doesn’t always work that way, but the example should serve to illustrate the perils of concentrating power too much.
The couphobiacs are unlikely to be chastened however. Once they start down the road of repression, it is hard to turn around or back out. They fear removal from power means they lose their lives as well. What Erdogan, Putin and Sisi need more than anything else is assurance that they can retire gracefully and live out their natural lives. Not everyone can afford to keep autocrats in power well into senility, as the Saudis do. But countries that want their autocrats to retire need to follow the Vatican’s lead and provide funding and protection (before they start committing war crimes and crimes against humanity). Come to think of it, that’s America’s solution too.
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Peace picks February 2-6
- Fighting ISIS: News from the Front Lines in Kurdistan | Tuesday February 3 | 10:00-11:30 | The Center for Transatlantic Relations, SAIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Center for Transatlantic Relations at SAIS is hosting a discussion with Aziz Reza, senior advisor to the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government. The talk will also feature Mousa Ahmed Agha, Deputy Head, Barzani Charity Foundation and will be moderated by Sasha Toperich, Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations SAIS
- Yemen – If this is a policy success, what does failure look like? | Tuesday February 3 | 12:30-1:45 | Georgetown University | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Last September, in announcing military operations against ISIS/ISIL, President Obama referred to Yemen as a US policy success, to the bafflement of many within and outside the country at the time. The jury was still out on our drone-dependent security/CT operations, the economy was in disarray and the political transition – a relative bright spot – was dimming. Recent events call the September judgment into even more question. What is really happening, and what does it mean for the US, the region, and the Yemenis? Georgetown University invites to a discussion with Ambassador Barbara K. Bodine, Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy and the Director of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
- Countering Violent Extremism: Improving Our Strategy for the Future | Wednesday February 4 | 14:00-15:00 | Brookings Institute| REGISTER TO ATTEND | The recent deadly attacks on the Charlie Hebdo offices and the Jewish market in Paris were sharp reminders of the continuing threat of violent extremism in the West. With similar attacks in Ottawa and Sydney, and a concerning number of Westerners moved to fight in Syria, preventing acts of violence by extremists has become a top priority. To help the United States and its allies move forward, the White House announced that it will host a Summit on Countering Violent Extremism on February 18. Bringing together a panel of experts on counterterrorism and radicalization, the conversation will raise questions about the efficacy of the current U.S. approach, successful practices of counterterrorism programs both domestically and abroad, and strategies for countering violent extremism going forward.
- Subcommittee Hearing: The Palestinian Authority’s International Criminal Court Gambit: A True Partner for Peace? | Wednesday February 4 | 2:00-5:00 | Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa | The House Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa is holding a hearing on the issue of the Palestinian Authority’s pursuit of membership in the International Criminal Court. Among the witnesses called to speak are Jonathan Schanzer, Vice President for Research, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Eugene Kontorovich, Professor of Law, Northwestern University School of Law, Danielle Pletka, Senior Vice President, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute and David Makovsky, Ziegler Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
- Why Corruption Threatens Global Security | Wednesday February 4th | 16:00-17:30 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND The world seems to be on fire—the spread of the Islamic State in Iraq; the endurance of Boko Haram in Nigeria; the East-West standoff in Ukraine. Is there a common thread tying these events together? Sarah Cheyes, who spent a decade living and working in Kandahar Afghanistan, and serves as special assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will demonstrate how governments that resemble criminal organizations drive their indignant constituents to extremes. Drawing on her personal experience in some of the most venal environments on earth, Chayes will present examples of what emerges where kleptocracy prevails: Afghans returning to the Taliban, Egyptians overthrowing the Mubarak government (but also rebuilding Al-Qaeda), and Nigerians embracing both radical evangelical Christianity and the Islamist terror group Boko Haram.
- Advancing U.S-Afghan Ties: A discussion with Senator Tom Cotton| February 5 |9:oo -9:45| USIP | REGISTER TO ATTEND |The election of a reformist national unity government in Afghanistan and the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement with the United States have restored bilateral relations that had badly deteriorated under President Karzai. The Afghan government, facing huge economic and security challenges, has requested significant and sustained assistance from the United States and the international community over the next decade. The United States has committed to provide civilian and military support up to the end of 2016. Several weeks before an anticipated visit by President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah, the question of future of U.S.-Afghan relations becomes more critical. USIP and the Alliance in Support of the Afghan People is pleased to host Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR), a U.S. Army veteran who served in both Afghanistan and Iraq and a newly elected member of the U.S. Senate, to provide his views on the shape of future U.S.-Afghan relations. Senator Cotton serves on the Armed Services Committee and the Select Committee on Intelligence.
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