Uneasy Kosovo, and Macedonia

Kosova Sot, a Pristina daily, asked me some questions last week and published the answers today. My responses are below (1-18), but then Sunday they sent me an additional question, about Macedonia, which appears first here:

Q: In the meantime armed conflicts occurred in Kumanovo in Macedonia where there were policemen killed, civilians and gunmen. Do you think the situation in Macedonia will escalate? Did Macedonia failed to be a state for all citizens, because Albanians are the nation’s largest after the Macedonians in this country?

A: I think it is too early to speculate on the precise political origins and objectives of the group involved in this incident. But one thing is clear to me: those who challenge state structures in the Balkans today have no justification. The states potentially involved–not only Macedonia but also Kosovo, Serbia, Albania and Bosnia–will need to be prepared to protect themselves from those who intend to use violence to achieve political ends. I’ve got nothing but sympathy for the state security officials called upon to suppress rebellion, so long as they do so in strict observance of the rule of law.

Macedonia is having a hard time. All its citizens need to reflect on how it can begin to move forward on its Euro-Atlantic ambitions. Visible motion in the direction of joining NATO and the EU would do wonders for the country’s internal stability.

1. Kosovo is on the verge of a new challenge, the establishment of the Special Court, which will handle allegations of Dick Marty’s report. Was it an necessary court?

A: No. It was made necessary by the failure of Kosovo and Albania to pursue criminal investigations of people associated with the Kosovo Liberation Army.

2. Among the persons accused in the report of Dick Marty, is the name of the former KLA leader, former Prime Minister Hashim Thaçi. Would you be surprised if his name appears also in the list of defendants?

A: Who could be surprised after years of discussion of this possibility? But I saw no convincing evidence of his involvement in the allegations of the Marty report, and I’ve seen none since then either.

3. This Court will not address, however, war crimes, acts of corruption or political killings. Would it be good that such a Court, to deal with these cases, which remain unresolved?

A: I would like to see the Kosovo courts begin to deal with these issues, as the Serbian courts have begun to do. A sovereign state is obligated to investigate all crimes on its own territory.

4. What consequences can have Kosovo, if parliament fails to vote on constitutional changes that facilitate the establishment of this Court?

A: I suppose it would slow the process of EU integration, which is already far too slow, and displease the Americans.

5. Let us talk about other developments in Kosovo. The coalition of the two major parties, PDK and LDK, is facing increased social pressure of opposition, strikes and protests. Do you think such a government is going to last, knowing that even serious surveys show a record decline in satisfaction with the performance of institutions?

A: If the coalition holds together, the government will last, no matter how many protests and strikes there are.

6. Unofficially there may be about 100 thousand people who left Kosovo during last months, especially after the formation of the new government, that for PDK it was the third consecutive mandate. Are people losing their people?

A: Do you mean is Kosovo losing its people? Yes, I think people are voting with their feet, as we say. Kosovars are looking for jobs and finding at least some of them in Europe.

7. The opposition is protesting against, as they call them, state capture, which in fact is a reality known to all. What do you think, how the state can be de-captured, when those same politicians are being recycled in power?

A: The proper way to remove politicians from power is to win elections. The opposition hasn’t been able to do that. It has every right to protest peacefully, but I’m not sure that will help at the polls.

8. Politicians are the richest caste in Kosovo, while businesses can hardly survive if unrelated to power. Is Kosovo being turned into an oasis of corruption, clientelism, nepotism, as in fact foreign media portrayed us recently?

A: Kosovo seems to me more or less on a par with other countries in the region when it comes to corruption, clientelism and nepotism. It is a small country where everyone knows everyone else, which makes meritocracy difficult. The wealth of politicians troubles me. Someone needs to investigate where the money comes from.

9. The rule of law is in crisis, and nor EULEX is not performing its work. This mission is covered by corruption scandals, while “big fishes”, mentioned once, remain untouchable. Do you see a dose of courage in the Kosovo justice to enable the rule of law?

A: I really don’t think foreigners can penetrate the web of economic and political interests in Kosovo or any other country. I think it takes courageous judges and prosecutors who are native to the environment. I served many years as a diplomat in Italy. Without the courageous Italian anti-Mafia magistrates, there would have been no progress against organized crime there. The Americans helped with intelligence and witness protection, but Italian courage was vital.

10. Let’s talk a little about relations with Serbia. Arrangements are being implemented slowly, while the Association of Municipalities has not been formed yet. The North is unstable and parallel structures are not dismembered. Do you think that this dialogue, that is running for years now, is indeed successful, while Serbia does not intend to recognize Kosovo?

A: I do think the dialogue has made progress. Whereas once upon a time Kosovar Albanians were concerned that Serbs refused to participate in Kosovo institutions, now they seem more concerned that the Serbs influence them too much. But I also think Belgrade recognition and exchange of ambassadors with Kosovo is an indispensable future step. Serbia has already accepted the Kosovo constitutional order on the whole territory. It is a short step from that to acknowledging Kosovo’s sovereignty and establishing diplomatic relations with it. That will be hard for Serbia to do, for domestic political reasons, but I am convinced it will happen. Without it, Serbia has no chance of becoming an EU member.

11. Serbian List is causing problems in government, because it pursues the agenda of Belgrade. Is this also an additional problem for the Kosovo government?

A: Sure. All coalition governments have problems that arise from the distinct interests of the coalition partners. If Albanians want to see a different Serb party as a member of the coalition, they are going to have to encourage an alternative.

12. The EU is the mediator and guarantor of the agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, but Kosovo on the other hand, barely achieved the SAA this year. For how long the relationship between Kosovo and EU will be so complicated?

A: For a long time. It is difficult to meet EU technical requirements, and even when you do there are political criteria that need to be satisfied. The good news is you get most of the benefit by meeting the technical requirements.

13. Kosovo is the only country in the region that has not benefited from visa liberalization, leading to frustration among the population. In your opinion, should the EU be a little bit more generous with the Kosovars, who have a large Diaspora in Europe?

A: It is the large Kosovar diaspora in Europe that makes the EU hesitate about the visa waiver, but yes I do think it is time to proceed with this. Otherwise Kosovars find themselves able to travel easily only to Albania and Macedonia. That is not a good formula for getting people to recognize the advantages of EU membership.

14. Nearly 16 years after the war, the same political figures dominate Kosovo scene-Thaçi, Haradinaj, Mustafa, Kurti, Limaj, etc. Can a new option achieve success, or would we remain hostage to this generation of politicians?

A: You vote for them. That is why they are still around. There are lots of other options, both within the established parties and beyond them. But if Kosovars don’t choose those other options, they should blame no one but themselves.

15. Kosovo also has some problems with extremist groups, which are recruiting people and are sending them to the ISIS. Do you think that Kosovo is endangered by these radical currents?

A: Yes. Not only is Kosovo endangered, but its international standing is also endangered. My understanding is that the government is pursuing this issue with vigor. I certainly hope so.

16. Finally we heard the Prime Minister of Albania to return to nationalist rhetoric of national unity. How effective is such a course?

A: He and others wouldn’t use it if they didn’t think there were votes in it. But I don’t think Edi Rama is prepared to move his capital to Pristina, which is historically the capital of “greater” Albania, or give up NATO and eventual EU membership. Nor do I think Hashim Thaci is interested in moving to Tirana or sacrificing the prospects of NATO and EU membership.

17. How have changed American interests during these times in the Balkan region?

A: American interests in the Balkans were never strong, but now we’ve got so many problems elsewhere that we are happy to see the EU take responsibility for its own backyard.

18. And finally a question to Hillary Clinton’s candidacy for president. What are her chances and what could bring the first female president of the US, if elected?

A: Votes are what could bring the first female president of the United States. She will be a strong candidate, but it is difficult to predict the outcome of American elections. We don’t even know who her Republican challenger will be. Let’s not count the chickens before they hatch.