Michael Makovsky, CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA), sent me a fund-raising letter today. As a supporter of the Iran nuclear deal, I won’t be responding with money (I’ve sent that on to J-Street, which is lobbying in favor). But I would like to examine Michael’s arguments against the deal. Obama’s deal, he says,
Let’s examine these assertions one by one.
What people don’t say is often as important as what they do. Michael’s letter claims the deal is “a threat to Israel and a threat to America.” But he fails to argue how either Israel or America would be better off without the deal. He offers no alternative at all.
But the consequences of rejecting the deal are clear enough. Either Iran will
a) likewise reject the deal, continue to accumulate centrifuges and highly enriched uranium, and complete a plutonium-producing reactor, as they did for the ten years before the P5+1 opened the negotiation with Tehran, or
b) uphold its end of the bargain in exchange for European, Chinese and Russian lifting of sanctions, thus reducing American leverage and gaining resources for more trouble-making in the region, just as they will with the nuclear deal.
Yes, the US could try to impose “secondary” sanctions on the Europeans, Chinese and Russians who do business with Iran, but that will not be 100% effective and will not improve relations with countries whose cooperation we need on other issues (Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya–just to name a few).
Note that Iran, not the US, will determine which option is taken. That alone should make the advocates of a strong America hesitate about rejection of the deal.
Democratic members of both houses of Congress, who are JINSA’s principal lobbying objective, appear to be rejecting Makovsky’s arguments, including a majority of the Jewish members. The Administration is on track to gain enough votes to uphold the President’s veto of a legislative attempt to block implementation of the deal. The straw men won’t stand.
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