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Day: August 31, 2015

Anatomy of a possible “safe zone”

Posted in Eddie Grove - August 31, 2015 - 1 Comment

In late July, it was announced that the US would be allowed to use Incirlik airbase in Turkey to conduct airstrikes against ISIS.  This move came immediately after ISIS claimed responsibility for a bombing in Suruç, Turkey that killed 33 people.  It has been widely reported that the US/Turkey deal also included a provision for some sort of safe zone, or ISIS-free, zone along the Turkish-Syrian border.

US officials have denied that this zone would be a true safe zone or no-fly zone, but rather that the US and Turkey would collaborate to clear a zone from ISIS control and look to man it with moderate opposition fighters.  According to Foreign Policy, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said that the zone will not be an official no-fly zone but will have US air support.  President Erdoğan has stated that the zone could allow for 1.8 million Syrian refugees to be repatriated.

News sources are generally in agreement that the zone would extend west along the Syrian border from Jarablus on the Euphrates.  Some reports state that the zone will extend as far as Marea, while others state that it will extend as far as A’zaz.  The depth of the zone is less certain, but reports indicate that it will be 40-50 km deep. Assuming a depth of approximately 45 km, the zone would look like this if it extends to Marea:

Here is a larger zone extending to A’zaz:

The larger population centers, as well some towns and villages where fighting has recently taken place, are marked with pins.  Those marked in black are under ISIS control and those in green are under rebel control.  Zahraa, in red, is a Twelver Shiite, regime-controlled city, and Aleppo, in white, is under mixed rebel and regime control.  It is worth noting that the eastern portion of the zone is sparsely populated, but Manbij and Al-Bab are larger cities, with populations of ~100,000 and approximately ~60,000, respectively.  The Western part of the zone is more heavily cultivated and densely populated; whether the zone would contain the sizeable towns of A’zaz (population ~30,000) and Tel Rifat (population ~20,000) is an important question.

Below is a map of areas of control created by Dutch student Thomas van Linge and updated on August 18.  I have overlayed a portion of the map onto a Google Earth view of the zone:

If the zone extends to Marea it will encompass almost entirely ISIS-held territory (shown in gray).  Marea itself is under ISIS siege and is controlled by a mix of the FSA, the Islamic Front and Jaysh Al-Mujahideen.  A’zaz is controlled by a mix of the FSA and the Islamic Front and Tel Rifat is controlled by a mix of the FSA, Jaysh Al-Mujahideen, the Islamic Front, Faylaq Al-Sham (also known as the Sham Legion–a group of moderate Islamists who have had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, but are trying to distance themselves from it).

Andrea Taylor and Abigail Kukura have suggested that a coalition of rebels known as the Levant Front (or Jabhat al-Shamiyya) could be at least partially relied upon as a ground force to protect the zone.  The Levant Front is an alliance between the Islamic Front (which includes Ahrar Al-Sham), Jaysh Al-Mujahideen, and three other Islamist rebel groups.  Ahrar Al-Sham is a hardline Islamist group, that supports the creation of a Sunni Islamic theocracy in Syria.  It coordinates tactically with the Nusra Front, but also works with more moderate and secular rebel groups.  Ambassador Robert Ford and Ali El Yassir have argued that the US should open a dialogue with Ahrar Al Sham, because it is one of the most powerful rebel groups.  Given the composition of rebel groups in the western portion of the zone, the US will be forced to cooperate with Ahrar Al Sham, at least indirectly through Turkey.

The zone has been the scene of significant fighting in the past few weeks.  In the following maps, I have once again used Thomas van Linge’s map of areas of control, and marked the sites of recent clashes with red flames.  I excluded clashes in Aleppo proper.  I obtained information about these clashes primarily from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

There are four primary hotspots:

1. The area along the front lines between ISIS and the rebels, especially around Marea.
2. A cluster of villages and a gas factory near the Turkish border on the front lines between ISIS and the rebels.
3. Areas on the far edge of the zone where clashes have occurred between rebels and regime positions in the Twelver Shiite cities of Zahraa and Nubl.
4. Clashes between the regime and the rebels in the northern outskirts of Aleppo.

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