Mr. Vučić returns to Washington

Serbian Prime Minister Vučić, who visited DC in June and spoke at Johns Hopkins/SAIS, is back for a call on Vice President Biden. That meeting was postponed last time around due to the death of Biden’s son Beau.

I’m a bit surprised this visit is happening so soon. Biden is in the midst of publicly agonizing over whether to run for President next year as he mourns the loss of his son. He has a lot of things to do and might well have put off this visit until later in the year.

That the visit is occurring now is likely a tribute to the importance Washington attaches to Serbia as well as American interest in finishing up the transition of the Balkans from Communist backwater to European showcase. Serbia itself is an important part of the process, and it can also help to resolve issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as in Kosovo, the two main remaining trouble spots in what used to be Yugoslavia. Belgrade has much less to offer in Macedonia, the third weakest link in the chain that links the Balkans to Europe.

Vučić will face some unfinished business in Washington. The Prime Minister has made promises about bringing to justice those responsible for murdering two Albanian Americans, the Bytyqi brothers, in July 1999. Those promises have not yet been fulfilled. Biden I trust will raise that with him, as others did during the June visit. The Vice President may also urge restraint in responding to the formation of a Association of Albanian Municipalities in southern Serbia, the mirror image of the Association of Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo. What’s good for the goose, he may suggest, is good for the gander, provided the laws of the respective countries are observed.

Apart from the flow of Middle Eastern refugees through the Balkans, the issues haven’t changed much in the last three months: Vučić be seeking American support for Serbia’s EU ambitions, which he’ll get along with a dose of suggestions from Washington as to how to accelerate and improve Serbia’s prospects: reform of the judicial system, buying natural gas from Azerbaijan rather than Russia, aligning Serbia with EU Ukraine-related sanctions against Moscow, implementing the “normalization” agreements between Belgrade and Pristina.

The Prime Minister will also be appearing at the American Chamber of Commerce, where he will presumably pitch American investment in Serbia as well as Serbian exports. Commercial issues of this sort are decided in the U.S. by the private sector, not the government, which can’t do much more than jawbone American companies and try to facilitate their contacts with the Serbian government and private sector. An appearance at the Chamber helps grease the skids.

Vučić will also give a talk at Brookings, where I imagine Serbia’s relationship with Moscow will be a focus of attention, not least because his host is Russia expert Fiona Hill. While the Prime Minister often emphasizes that Serbia has made a definitive choice for the West and EU membership, Serbian President Nikolić and others associated with the government seem less convinced. The Prime Minister is likely to emphasize the importance of Balkan road, rail, aviation and energy infrastructure in ensuring the region is linked strongly to Europe and the West.

So this visit will be in part a reprise and in part an extension of the Prime Minister’s previous encounters in DC, which left a good impression. It’s a sign of how much has changed that the good news these days comes from the Balkans, and even from Serbia.