Building peace from the ground up
On Wednesday, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted Dr. Samir Altaqi to discuss the prospects of national reconciliation in Syria as well as the fight against ISIS. As general director of the Dubai-based Orient Research Center, Altaqi conducts research on locations throughout the Middle East. He has also founded two initiatives, the Arab-Kurds Dialogue in 2013 and the Save Syria Initiative in 2015.
Altaqi, based on reports conducted by his Center, posited that the situation on the ground in Syria has reached the point that it is more logical and practicable to set up a confederal system. The different regions have gravitated toward their neighbors and become more localized, not just in terms of security, but economically as well. Northern Syria is more integrated with the Turkish economy, while the land east of the Euphrates is increasingly turning towards Erbil.
While 76% of the Syrian economy formerly passed through Damascus, the capital has been displaced and now sees only 17%. We are witnessing the collapse of the system of loyalties that used to support the state, and autonomous regions are crystallizing and fusing socioeconomically. In Altaqi’s analysis, the ministry of finance, the central bank, and the electricity network are the sole remaining central structures. All other state institutions have devolved, and ‘state’ employees operate on a local basis.
What is therefore needed, Altaqi believes, is a national reconciliation pact, with incentives for all parties, under the cultural and historical banner of ‘Syria’ even if politically no more than a confederation. Even if Bashar al-Assad goes, Altaqi believes the conflict won’t come to an end. Reconciliation needs to be built from the parties on the ground, with horizontal Syrian-Syrian dialogue.
Necessary steps include determining which parties are classifiable as internationalist terrorists, and eliminating the local incubator for Jabhat al-Nusra and other al-Qaeda-leaning groups. Engagement, especially with the Syrian fighters in these groups, is essential for moderating extremists. The conflict needs to be frozen, instituting local ceasefires within a larger framework for a national ceasefire.
As for international involvement, Altaqi does think that a Vienna process of some sort is necessary, but there is no agreement between the US and Russia as yet. For the US in particular, he believes officials still entertain illusions about the conflict. These include the illusion that the conflict can be contained; that an alliance between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran is possible; and also that ISIS will not come to the US.
There is a lack of a Yalta-style master plan between international actors to solve the crisis. Each is pursuing its own agenda in Syria, using the pretext of fighting ISIS. Tensions among them are strong – Turkey is afraid of Russia and isn’t sure NATO will back it up if the tensions increase.
The US also needs to take Sunni Arab actors seriously on the ground. As it stands, Washington has no leverage over them, though both Turkey and Saudi Arabia do. Echoing a common view, Altaqi states that it is Sunni Arabs who can effectively confront and defeat ISIS, given the right resources and opportunities.
Trained as a cardiovascular surgeon, Altaqi formulates the crisis in a medical analogy: there has been a loss of immunity because in weak states of the region. An infection has thus entered this regional body, in the form of ISIS. No matter what antibiotic you use to combat it, it will not have the desired effect without rebuilding the immune system.
Thus, national reconciliation is essential first and foremost. It would stabilize Syria, free up resources, and create bodies who can then confront the ISIS threat. In Altaqi’s view, this is what must be done.
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