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Glad to be left out of a dubious category

I’m in Amman, talking to people about southern Syria. This is a counterpart to my visit to Gaziantep, near the Turkish border with Syria, in October to talk with people about the north, which is now suffering serious turmoil.

There are essentially three geographic components to southern Syria at the moment. Daraa and Quneitra governorates, Suweida to the east and Rif Damascus to the north. Daraa and Quneitra are largely under opposition control, though the Islamic State and Jabhat al Nusra sometimes fight with each other and with Free Syrian Army (FSA) brigades in Quneitra. Suweida, which is mostly Druze, is under regime control but tries to remain out of the fray. Important parts of Rif Damascus to the south and east of Damacus are opposition controlled but under siege by pro-regime forces, including Iranians and Hazara Afghan immigrants to Iran.

Daraa, in contrast to the north, is enjoying a period of relative stability. Sixty-five per cent is said to be under control of units (originally 56 of them!) that claim FSA association under the rubric of the Southern Front, which claims 35,000 fighters. “Control” is a relative term. The chief justice of the opposition-affiliated Deraa court was assassinated Tuesday. It wasn’t the first assassination in Daraa. There is some presence of regime forces in the center of Daraa and along the main north/south road. There is lots of bang bang, but they are not pressing hard to gain territory. Russian air attacks, though greatly feared, are relatively few. The population mostly belongs to the Hoorani tribe, making infiltration harder than in less homogeneous and more urbanized areas. Free Syrian Army supporters in Amman are holding back on any offensives, in particular against the regime stronghold in the center of Daraa town. Some think this is in exchange for a limit on Russian air strikes, which the Jordanians in particular want to avoid because they would chase more refugees across the border. The Coalition Military Operations Center in Amman holds a good deal of sway over the Southern Front, as it provides money and vital supplies.

The big problem for the Syrian opposition in the south continues to be barrel bombs, which still rain down on civilians despite Russian and Syrian denials. No ceasefire in the south can take hold as long as the FSA sees this happening.

Governance in Daraa is a hit and miss affair. The opposition provincial council recently redrew districts to include areas under regime control, but only one of six districts has managed to hold an election. The other members are chosen in indirect elections by more local councils, if I understood correctly. Civil defense is sometimes well-organized and schools are open in many areas, despite sometimes being targetted. Water and electricity are scarce. Police are virtually non-existent. The local councils are however important in delivery of humanitarian supplies, which flow amply across the border from Jordan. Some local people are returning from Jordan to Daraa, but that may be more a signal of the economic difficulties they face in Jordan rather than improved conditions in Syria.

The Israeli and Jordanian borders in the south are tightly monitored. The Jordanians have closed the more accessible border crossing points to refugees, though they remain open to FSA fighters. Twelve thousand refugees have accumulated in a no man’s land at a less accessible border crossing point. The Israelis are said to provide medical treatment to all comers at their border, regardless of affiliation. Some think this a successful “soft power” ploy; others think it is an intelligence gathering operation. It could be both. The procedures for delivering patients, sometimes with notes from Syrian doctors pinned to their clothes to indicate what treatments have already been attempted, are tight and conducted under sniper supervision only at night.

Farther north in Rif Damascus, the situation in East Ghouta remains miserable. Jaish al Islam is dominant among the opposition forces there, though Jabhat al Nusra is also present. Both are fighting the Islamic State. Local councils are present in more peaceful areas but fighters dominate closer to the front lines. Courts apply Sharia, as does the court in Deraa, but the worst “hudud” physical punishments are not utilized.

Jaish al Islam was represented at last week’s Riyadh meeting of the Syrian opposition, along with Ahrar al Sham and other Islamist groups. There is a palpable shift in sentiment in the opposition, including the Islamist groups, towards negotiation with the regime, even if they all continue to insist that Bashar al Assad must go. None think the fighting will stop if he doesn’t. Ahrar al Sham, loathed by some because it includes Jabhat al Nusra (Al Qaeda) participation, is seen by others as turning in a more civilized and perhaps even democratic direction. Some say it does not to commit massacres, unlike the Islamic State.

The Syrian army has been decimated by more than four years of war. It is said to be down to 100,000 from a troop strength of 320,000, though some believe its morale has risen significantly with the Russian air strikes. Hizbollah is now leading the fight against the opposition in many areas. Iran, the opposition believes, gives the orders. Bashar al Assad has been reduced to talking about regime control of “useful Syria,” by which he means Damascus, north to Homs and Hama, and west to Latakia and Tartus, more or less. The south is glad to be left out of that dubious category.