Day: January 25, 2016
Hangups: why and who
The Syria peace talks did not begin as projected in Geneva today, though they are likely to convene before the end of this week. Secretary of State Kerry is doing his damndest to make it happen. What are the hang ups? Is he wise to press so hard?
There are two big hangups: why talk and with whom. Or in diplomatese: the agenda and the shape of the table.
Why is the bigger issue. The Syrian opposition, backed by Washington, wants to talk about transition of power away from Bashar al Asad to a “governing body with full executive powers.” That 2012 formula has been repeated ad infinitum since, either explicitly or implicitly (by reference to the June 2012 United Nations communique in which it first appeared). The regime has made it clear it will not negotiate about transition in Geneva. Nor did it last time the UN tried for a political solution, two years ago. Bashar al Asad’s delegation will stick with an anti-terrorist pitch, backed by the Russians and Iranians. The military gains the regime has made against its opponents since Russia’s intervention in the fall mean it is feeling little pressure to yield.
While the Russians never tire of saying that they are not wedded to Bashar al Assad, everything they do suggests the opposite. There is good reason for this. Moscow has no hope of a welcome in Syria by a serious successor to the regime, so the Russians are sticking with what they’ve got.
Iran even more so. Tehran has risked Hizbollah, Iraqi Shia militias it supports and Revolutionary Guard forces in Syria, certainly losing thousands. Though Syrians in my experience are little inclined to sectarianism, the approximately three-quarters of the population that is at least nominally Sunni is not going to easily forget what Iran and its proxies have done to prop up a dictator. Nor will the Alawites and Shia who have backed the regime want to find out what the majority population is inclined to do in retaliation. So having Iran at the table, entirely justified by its role in the conflict, is no easy formula for a solution.
In addition, there are other “who” problems. The fragmentation of the Syrian opposition, often cited as a serious obstacle, is not such a big problem this time around. With Saudi sponsorship, the main opposition forces other than al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al Nusra and the Islamic State have chosen a High Negotiation Commission (HNC), headed by former regime Prime Minister Hijab, and a negotiating team. The main body of the opposition is, in fact, remarkably unified this time around, at least for the moment.
The problem is that there are forces claiming to be opposition that lie outside the HNC, which does not recognize them as such. They come in two flavors: Kurdish and so-called “internal” opposition, both heavily favored by Moscow.
The Kurds who count are affiliated with the Kurdish PYD militia who are fighting in northern Syria against the Islamic State with US support. Washington doesn’t want them excluded from the talks, even if they are affiliated with the Kurdish militia waging a rebellion inside Turkey. Moscow agrees, not least to give Turkey grief.
Moscow also backs elements of the “internal” opposition who aren’t regarded by the opposition forces represented in the HNC as real opposition. Russia is trying to force internal opposition figures into the HNC delegation, likely in exchange for allowing some of what Moscow regards as extremist groups also to join. From Moscow’s point of view, the more unmanageable and fractious the HNC presence in Geneva, the better. The last thing Moscow wants is for the Syrians to choose their own delegation, which would be heavily anti-Russian.
The HNC seems determined to reject Kurdish participation in its delegation, not least because the Kurds often clash with opposition brigades represented there and collaborate with the regime in territories the Kurds largely control. But of course that may mean separate Kurdish representation, which in some ways is precisely what the mostly Arab HNC should not want to see. Separate Kurdish representation in the talks could well favor Kurdish ambitions for a separate federal unit within Syria, like the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. The Syrian Kurds are calling theirs “Rojava.”
With all these complications, is Secretary Kerry wise to insist?
Richard Gowan argues that there are reasons to proceed, despite the odds: possible progress on humanitarian issues, keeping a peace process alive because it may eventually lead somewhere, and most of all the need Washington and Moscow are feeling to limit their recent competition and try for some cooperation in the aftermath of the Iran nuclear deal. Even a failure, in this view, has the virtue of trying.
My own inclination is towards skepticism, not least because failure at this point will likely mean another tw0-year hiatus. Secretary Kerry is a far greater risk-taker than most of his predecessors. He tried with Israel and Palestine far beyond the point at which others would have given up. The result is an impasse that may last a long time. He pressed forward with Iran on nuclear issues to good effect. Will his Syria effort look more like the former or the latter? More likely the former, with catastrophic consequences for millions of Syrians.
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Peace picks January 25-29
Government closing today, but still lots of good events later in the week:
- U.S.-Russia Cooperation in Syria | Wednesday, January 27th | 9:00-10:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | After a year that has seen increased turmoil in the Middle East, there is growing attention in the region from outside powers. A distinguished Russian delegation, led by Vitaliy Naumkin, will present their views on the geopolitical challenges in the region. In particular, they will discuss Russia’s role in resolving the Syrian crisis, and outline opportunities for collaboration with the United States. Vitaly Naumkin is the head of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Other speakers include Vassily A. Kuznetsov, head of the Centre for Political Systems and Cultures at Moscow State University, and Irina Zvyagelskaya, professor at Moscow State University.
- Local Responses to Libya’s Instability | Wednesday, January 27th | 2:30-4:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since its 2011 revolts and the overthrow of former ruler Muammar Qaddafi, Libya has experienced a series of weak governments, internal fighting factions, and extremist violence. In the attempts to resolve Libya’s complex political and security challenges, the voices of Libyan citizens often go unheard. Please join the Atlantic Council for a discussion with Jeffrey Vanness and Jakob Wichmann. Wichmann will present his findings from a nationwide survey conducted in Libya in August and September 2015, and Vanness will respond to the survey’s results from a US government perspective. The survey includes representative samples for Tripoli, Misrata, and Benghazi, allowing for a comparison of perceptions and demonstrating differences in attitudes in Libya. The survey, conducted through phone interviews with 2,507 Libyan respondents, was commissioned by the US Agency for International Development (USAID). Topics explored include political efficacy and engagement, preferences for the future constitution, gender issues, perceptions of local and national actors, evaluation of public services, perceptions of armed groups, and responses to insecurity. Jeffrey Vanness serves as Democracy and Governance Field Advisor with the Elections and Political Transitions Division of USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights and Governance. Jakob Wichmann is a consultant for Social Impact and a partner at JMW Consulting. Karim Mezran focuses on the politics of North Africa at the Atlantic Council, where he is the lead expert on Libya.
- Saudi Arabia’s Regional Role and the Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations | Wednesday, January 27th | 2:30-4:00 | Project on Middle East Democracy | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Saudi Arabia has long been one of the United States’ closest allies in the Middle East, among the largest recipients of U.S. arms sales globally, and perceived as a crucial partner in the war on terrorism. Nonetheless, there have always been serious questions regarding the costs of the U.S.-Saudi military relationship, which have become more pronounced over the past year. The Saudi military intervention in Yemen has resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians, and recent executions in the Kingdom, including of nonviolent dissidents, have renewed longstanding concerns about the state of human rights in the Kingdom. In addition, concerns remain about Saudi support for extremist networks in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere, as well as the impact of Saudi militarism on divisions throughout the region. How has Saudi Arabia’s role in the region changed in recent years, and what has driven these changes? What relationships have various factions in Saudi Arabia had with extremist movements throughout the Middle East and North Africa? What impact does U.S. military support for Saudi Arabia have on the Kingdom’s role in the region, as well as on human rights concerns within the country? How have recent events, such as the ongoing conflict in Yemen, Saudi’s role in the Syrian conflict, and mass executions within Saudi Arabia, affected the U.S.-Saudi relationship? And what might we expect for the future of bilateral relations? The panel includes Nadia Oweidat, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, Andrea Prasow, Deputy Washington Director of Human Rights Watch, and Stephen Seche, Executive Vice President of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
- The Impact of Low Oil Prices on the Middle East | Thursday, January 28th | 9:00-10:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center on Thursday, January 28 from 9:00 am – 10:30 am for a panel discussion on the impact of low oil prices in the Middle East. The collapse in crude oil prices since mid-2014 has shaken the foundation of global energy markets, with sweeping economic and political implications for the Middle East. Amidst falling oil revenues, governments from the Gulf to Iraq and beyond face fiscal crises, market upheaval, disruption of traditional ways of doing business, challenges to longstanding fuel subsidy programs, and slumping economic growth. In the midst of this volatile landscape, energy producers in the region face an uncertain future that will have ramifications in the years to come. The discussion will touch on the following questions and more: How are low prices impacting the economic health of and internal political dynamics in Saudi Arabia? What is the future of Saudi Aramco? How are other major producing countries across the GCC, Iraq, Iran, and North Africa adapting and faring in today’s price environment? Are fiscal constraints inducing major changes in government policies and/or driving macroeconomic and energy policy trends across the Middle East? To what degree are low oil prices driving geopolitical calculations in the region? Panelists include Denise Natali, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, Jean-Francois Seznec, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Global Energy Center, and Jamie Webster, Senior Director of HIS Energy Downstream Research. Annie Megdalia, Deputy Director of the Global Energy Center, will moderate.
- Women and Extremism: A Tale of Two Experiences | Thursday, January 28th | 3:30-4:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Women are often the victims of terrorism and extremism by states and international actors. At times, they are also the perpetuators of violence and terrorism. This discussion will focus on the intersection between women and extremism at a time of increasing volatility in the Middle East and around the world. Join us as we explore how women are recruited and used by terrorist organizations, and how women become trapped in cycles of violence and conflict. Our panel of experts will look at ways to address the problem and how to engage women and girls in conflict prevention and resolution. Speakers include Farah Pandisth, Adjunct Senior Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations, Timothy B. Curry, Deputy Director of Counterterrorism for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, Co-founder and Executive Director of the International Civil Society Action Network, Fatima Sadiqi, Fellow at the Wilson Center, and Tara Sonenshine, Distinguished Fellow at George Washington University. Join the conversationon Twitter by following @WPSProject.
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