The Yemen quagmire

Christina Ma, a SAIS student, reports:

The panelists of the MEI- and SAIS- sponsored “Yemen Quagmire,” held Friday, featured Charles Schmitz (Middle East Institute), Amat Alsoswa (former Yemeni Cabinet Member), Leslie Campbell (National Democratic Institute), and Andrew Plitt (USAID). Kate Seelye (Middle East Institute) moderated the discussion on the conflict in Yemen, the humanitarian crisis, and prospects for peace talks.

Schmitz underlined that the grievances generating the conflict are not just between the Houthis and the state, but more broadly between the Northerners and the central government. No political force on either side of the conflict has a coherent vision or ability to settle the war. Yemen may be in for a “long, slow grind.” Poverty is a huge issue; the groups that can pay their forces will be more likely to attract supporters.

Regarding international involvement, Schmitz said the Saudi air campaign has been a disaster. The blockade has also greatly affected the population. Insurgent forces are still capturing strategic cities and becoming involved with oil smuggling, despite efforts by the Coalition. The role of Islamist groups such as Al Qaeda could further complicate the conflict.

Alsoswa described the escalation of the conflict since “Operation Restoring Hope” began ten months ago in April 2015. She illustrated the gravity of the humanitarian crisis using recent UN statistics. For example, 82% of the population is estimated to seek aid, there is an absence of medical and other basic necessities, and 33% of people have not been able to receive any aid. Humanitarian actors on the ground (for example, MSF) have been limited in their ability to serve the population due to the insecure environment, in some cases, even being targets of violence. Many southerners have been fleeing to the north, especially Sana’a. In addition, there are threats from Islamist groups such as Daesh and Al-Qaeda seeking inroads, as well as the threat of spillover to nearby countries Saudi Arabia and Oman.

The first and most immediate challenge to peace is overcoming the humanitarian crisis, Alsoswa said. Poverty has been exacerbated, governance has collapsed, private economic activity has broken down due to the insecure environment and the blockade, and oil production has halted. In Sana’a, looting and destruction of cultural heritage sites is increasingly problematic.

Plitt described the Yemeni humanitarian crisis as one of the more dire that has flown under the radar. Many parts of the country were already food insecure before the war. After the conflict escalated, the south and west have entered emergency states and are one step away from famine. The economic outlook is grim. The government is facing a budget crisis—foreign reserves are nearly depleted. Government salaries and social service payments have not been dispersed. One relatively positive note is that around 70% of schools in areas less affected by the conflict have been able to remain open. A major impediment to peace is that even if a ceasefire is achieved, can it be enforced on the ground?

Campbell said that many of the political fault lines and competitions for power prior to the conflict remain the same. The Iranian and Saudi interference masks the pressures driving the conflict, but they should not be overlooked. Northerners have historically tried to win more autonomy, power-sharing, and resource sharing. The center opposes these demands. The South also has had secession movements and critically possesses the country’s oil resources.

Alluding to a “fatal flaw” in the 2013 National Dialogue, Campbell noted that the conference discussed many of the simpler issues but the bigger issues that underlay the conflict, such as federalism, were evaded. The President picked the southern delegates, who did not truly represent the interests of the South. While the outcome suited the agenda of the people in the center, groups vying for devolution, such as the Houthis, were dissatisfied with the outcome and furthermore perceived that the agreement would be imposed on them by the international community. Former President Saleh remains a troublemaker and spoiler.

Campbell recommends that dialogues and negotiations must be broader and keep the core issues are on the table. Otherwise, the groups have no incentive to negotiate and will continue fighting. Alsoswa adds that one cannot just rely on the parties of war to create peace. Third parties play an important role by enforcing peace on the ground.

In the Q&A, Campbell noted that Saleh is a skilled politician but escaped punishment. The international community has not yet found a way to deal with impunity. Schmitz suggested that the comparison of the Houthis to Hezbollah is inaccurate because Iran has less control over the Houthis, who presented an opportunity for Iran to play on the regional narrative of “oppressed Shiites.” But Iran does not direct their actions.

On the role of the US, the panelists noted that Washington has been reluctant to get involved because of its alliance with Riyadh, but recently has strengthened messages.  Saudi and US interests are not necessarily aligned. Refugees are a big issue because Yemenis cannot seek refuge in neighboring countries. Businesses could potentially play a critical role in post-conflict reconstruction by helping revive the economy.

The underlying issues related to economic, resource, and political inequality that are not being resolved. The economic and humanitarian situation in Yemen is dire. Overall, the outlook on Yemen remains grim.