Day: February 17, 2016
Russian “immunity”
Milana Pejic of the Belgrade daily Blic asked me yesterday about immunity for Russian troops stationed in Serbia, which President Putin has reportedly requested. I responded:
I’m not sure what “immunity” means. As the state sending soldiers, sailors or airmen to deploy in a foreign country, the US always requires that it retain jurisdiction over them. If they commit a crime, they get tried in the US, not in the state in which they are deployed, unless the US waives its right to exercise jurisdiction (which it occasionally does). There is no “immunity” in the sense of protection from prosecution. This is all regulated in what is called a “status of forces agreement.” I really don’t know what the Russians do, though I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if they insist on something closer to immunity.
Quite apart from the question of criminal jurisdiction, I can’t think of any EU countries that host Russian bases on their territory. Are there any?* If Serbia is serious about EU membership, I wonder if it wants to continue to host the Russians at all. If not, there would be no point in providing immunity (or even sending state jurisdiction). An easy way out might be to refuse the Russian request.
I see Prime Minister Vucic is talking in the press about the importance of NATO to the protection of Serbs in northern Kosovo. Belgrade needs to weigh carefully whether its present policy of hedging between NATO/EU and Russia is really in the Serbian interest.
Some day fairly soon all Serbia’s neighbors will be NATO members. What sense would it make then for Serbia to host a Russian base? What impact will that have on relations with the neighbors? Moscow may call it a humanitarian center, but we know from the recent intentional Russian bombing of hospitals in Syria how serious Moscow is about humanitarian issues.
*PS: the answer to this question is no.
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Will the hostilities cease?
The only real question about the cessation of hostilities supposedly agreed in Munich last week is when it will collapse. It may never go into effect or it may last a week or two, but it will be surprising if it lasts much longer than that. The Russians have made it clear enough the cessation of hostilities doesn’t apply to its efforts against ISIS, which have never really targeted ISIS but are instead directed mainly against any forces opposing the Assad regime. Assad has likewise indicated that his forces will not cease fighting whoever opposes them.
The US and its Coalition allies, who are focusing for now on ISIS forces in eastern Syria, also intend to continue their air attacks. Turkey is shelling Kurdish and allied Arab forces trying to take control of the relatively small part Syria’s northern border that they don’t yet own. Saudi Arabia is talking about deploying ground forces to Syria, but only as part of a US-led Coalition effort that has not real possibility of materializing.
If Damascus allows humanitarian aid convoys into some of the areas it is besieging, that will only be for fear of the consequences if they don’t. If no relief reaches the besieged areas, Secretary of State Kerry will want to make another run at President Obama to urge stronger military action, at the very least provision of antiaircraft weapons to the opposition forces the US has trained. Preventing this eventuality could be a good enough reason for Assad to allow the aid shipments to move forward for a while. Assad’s air force is already decimated, but loss of its remaining helicopters would constrain its ability to terrorize civilian areas with indiscriminate barrel bombs.
President Obama still shows no appetite for getting more deeply involved in Syria. He remains exclusively focused on the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). None of his putative allies in the region share that single mindedness, though the Kurds are making a good show of it. Their real objective is to carve out part of Syria that they can claim to govern, and from which they can support Kurdish insurgents inside Turkey. The Turks are trying to prevent that. The moderate opposition, supported by the Gulf, is targeting Assad. Coalition warfare, which for the US is more the rule than the exception, is always difficult, but this Coalition is proving particularly unruly.
Russian air attacks have already devastated a large part of the area around Aleppo, where several hundred thousand people are at risk of being besieged. Idlib could be next. The costs of future reconstruction in Syria are already astronomical, with no sign of anyone willing or able to pay. The Russians and Iranians haven’t contributed even to the humanitarian relief effort. The Americans and the Gulf won’t be interested in reconstructing anything if Assad remains in power. The Europeans may want to provide some aid, if only to relieve the refugee pressure that is bearing down on them. The Syrian government is broke and will remain so–even if it regains control of its oil fields, they are now depleted and damaged.
So the war will continue sooner or later, despite the human and economic costs. And the post-war period will be no less challenging. Woe to Syria.
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Republicans and Democrats like Jordan
On Thursday, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa hosted a hearing on “Jordan: A Key US Partner.” Opening statements were delivered by the following members of the Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa: Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Chairwoman, Representative Ted Deutch, Ranking Member, Representative David Cicilline and Representative Lois Frankel. Witnesses included Gerald Feierstein, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, Department of State, Paige Alexander, Assistant Administrator, Bureau for the Middle East, USAID, and Fatema Sumar, Regional Deputy Vice President, Europe, Asia, the Pacific and Latin America, Department of Compact Operations, Millennium Challenge Corporation.
Ros-Lehtinen affirmed Jordan’s importance as an ally and King Abdullah’s status as reliable partner. Last year, the US signed an MoU with Jordan that recognized its key role in fighting ISIS and in welcoming refugees. Refugees are straining Jordan’s already limited resources. It is vital that we help Jordan shore up these resources, especially water and energy. Through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact, we have already invested $275 million in Public-Private Partnership (PPP) wastewater projects that are nearing completion. She and Deutch visited the Al-Samra wastewater treatment plant last year. There are other projects such as the Red-Dead Sea Conduit that could shore-up Jordan’s water resources and strengthen Jordanian-Israeli cooperation.
Another area for possible Israeli-Jordanian cooperation would be an agreement for Jordan to import Israeli gas. Jordan and Israel have shared interests and should work together. We must also support USAID and IRI in their efforts to strengthen civil society and governance. Jordan’s stability is essential for the region. She and Deutch recently introduced the United States-Jordan Defense Cooperation Act, which passed Congress and is on its way to Obama. It will expedite weapons sales to Jordan to help it fight ISIS and strengthen its borders.
Deutch thanked his colleagues for supporting the bipartisan legislation and explained that last year’s MoU increased annual US aid to Jordan from $600 million to $1 billion. This reflects our commitment and Jordan’s willingness to partner with us against ISIS. Jordan has taken in 635,000 registered refugees, but Jordanian officials believe the actual figure is much higher. Jordanian communities have welcomed them but they have strained water and energy resources. USAID programs have brought fresh water and sanitation services to 1/3 of Jordan. The expansion of the Al-Samra wastewater treatment plant will increase access to water for over 3 million Jordanians.
Schooling is key to prevent a lost generation of Syrian refugee children. Secretary of State Kerry recently announced $267 million in education spending for Jordan. More refugees will seek safety in Jordan as the conflict in Southern Syria worsens; they will be difficult to vet at the border but Deutch hopes Jordan will let those who don’t pose a threat in.
King Abdullah understands the need to both defeat ISIS and find a political solution to the conflict. As long as Assad remains in power, we won’t be able to stem the flow of refugees or defeat ISIS. Helpful actions that Jordan can take include improving refugees’ ability to work and cooperating with Israel on the Red-Dead project. Deutch thanked Jordan for its efforts to calm tensions on the Temple Mount last fall, but was alarmed by news that some Jordanian MPs had threatened to topple the government if the deal to import Israeli gas goes through.
Cicilline also expressed appreciation for Jordan’s counter-ISIS efforts and noted that he had visited the Za’atari Refugee Camp last month. Frankel noted that she had visited Jordan last month on a personal trip and had admired the beauty of the country and its people. She thanked Jordan for welcoming refugees but noted that refugees whom she met with expressed how difficult it was for them that they were unable to work and supplement their meager allowances. She wanted to know if anything was being done about this and what the US was doing to boost Jordan’s economy, including by supporting tourism. She also questioned whether our aid programs in Syria were still
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