DRC election

SAIS student Qifan Huang reports:

Last Wednesday, the SAIS African Studies Program hosted an event discussing the upcoming election in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with Georges Nzongola-Ntalaja, former President of the African Studies Association (ASA).

The DRC faces extreme difficulty in conducting an orderly and peaceful transition between regimes. Nzongola-Ntalaja attributed this difficulty to the weakness of political institutions, including the parliament and civil society. The fragile governance structure in Africa, coupled with its history of invasion, occupation, colonialism, are the root causes of the prevalence of money politics and political crimes, including crimes of war in Sudan, crimes against humanity in Chad, and a number of genocides. The DRC’s present failures must also be observed through these lenses, in both the national and international contexts since 1960.

On the national level, Nzongola-Ntalaja argued that an illegitimate, corrupt and weak regime is the primary reason for DRC’s current situation. The nation is not fundamentally different from Mobutu’s Zaire, with the same failed governance structure. Figures from the Mobutu regime can be found in all branches of the government. Their primary interest is not to serve the people, but themselves.

The progress Congo has made since the fall of Mobutu has not been reflected in the livelihood of ordinary Congolese citizens. Criminals were not punished. Assassinations of journalists and human rights activists with the collusion of the police are prevalent. Political office is seen as an avenue to personal enrichment.

As a result, the Kabila regime has no legitimacy, which is particularly reflected in the 2011 elections when the government manipulated the parliament to change the constitution and directed the security forces to unleash terror and violence against the President’s major opponent. Kabila has also taken desperate measures to win the 2016 election, including attempts to change the electoral law so that national census, which may take up to four years, must be conducted before any election. That attempt was only curbed after the Senate rejected the proposal due to widespread demonstrations by young students. Kabila claims that logistical barriers are the main reasons for him postponing the election, but Nzongola-Ntalaja pointed out that the obstacles are largely political, not technical: they can be solved if the government is committed. Kabila is just using them as excuses.

From the international perspective, Nzongola-Ntalaja pointed to the interference in internal DRC politics by Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi, as well as the acquiesce of the international actors, as reasons for Congo’s bad governance. He argued that Kabila is a “puppet,” a warlord without the vision, capability and organization to rule Congo. The country’s eastern provinces are in the hands of Rwanda: James Kabarebe, Kabila’s first Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, is now the Minister of Defense of Rwanda.

Because the 1996 “civil war” was, in essence, a war of aggression against the DRC by Rwanda, Uganda and other regional states supported by Western powers, Kabila was never recognized as someone representing the interest of the general Congolese public. In the years following the conclusion of the civil war, international attempts to ameliorate the situation in DRC, including the 11 plus 4 mechanism and the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework, failed, adding to the instability of the Kabila regime. Support for Kabila by the EU, the UN, among other international actors, including their recognition, at least partially, of the 2011 election, contributed to Kabila’s desire to stay in power.

Only the Congolese people can save themselves from Kabila, Nzongola-Ntalaja argued, praising the recent protests in Kinshasa and other regions of the country and wishing for a fair election in the second half of 2016.

In the Q&A session, Nzongola-Ntalaja discussed further the indulgence of the international community towards Rwandan President Kagame, due to the fear of Rwanda no longer engaging in peacekeeping and fighting terrorism. The strength of civil society in Eastern Congo, peacekeeping offensives against M23 and other rebel groups, and the role of Angola were also discussed.

To conclude, Nzongola-Ntalaja pointed to the dire need for the protesters to find good leadership who can mobilize the population and fight the regime, as well as mobilize regional and international backers, to curb Kabila’s ambitions. He has full confidence in the power of the people to elect a truly democratic president in the near future.