Europe a soft target for terrorists
My colleagues at the Middle East Institute asked me for this Friday and published it today, along with finer pieces by Charles Lister on Palmyra/ISIS, Paul Salem on Mosul/Iraq and Allen Keiswetter on Trump/Saudi Arabia:
The Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq and Syria, but expanding affiliates in Libya and other parts of Africa, and striking soft targets in France, Belgium, Turkey and elsewhere. As most of its revenue comes from extortion in territory it controls and its recruits from a record of successful advances, loss of territory likely puts the jihadists in a tight spot. Momentum matters.
Hitting soft targets is cheap, requires few people and is relatively easy to plan and execute. Europe is readily accessible from the Middle East and houses lots of poorly integrated and marginalized Sunni Muslims. Prisons there, and elsewhere, appear to incubate terrorists; witness the brothers who participated in last week’s Brussels attacks. Europe, where internal borders have been weakened without a concomitant strengthening of external borders, can expect more attempts by terrorist groups to kill and maim ordinary civilians as well as security forces.
The United States is not immune, but has advantages: two large oceans, toughened intelligence and law enforcement since 9/11, and a Muslim population thought to be better integrated than in Europe. Homegrown terrorists, many non-Muslim, have had more success here than foreigners. The charged political atmosphere of the presidential primary campaigns could, however, generate resentments and incentives for spectacular attacks. ISIS would surely not pass up a good opportunity to demonstrate its reach and strike against Americans and American interests.
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