Month: April 2016
Peace Picks April 11-15
- Egypt’s Former Foreign Minister on Regional Statecraft and Domestic Reform | Tuesday, April 12th | 12:00-1:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host Nabil Fahmy, former foreign minister of Egypt, for a discussion about Egypt’s political and socioeconomic challenges and its role in regional politics and stability. Egypt’s government is under pressure to deliver economic development, good governance, and increased security in light of growing terrorist threats. These challenges come amid growing regional tensions- from the conflict in Syria to the war in Yemen. How can the state better meet its domestic objectives and how can Egypt play an effective role in brokering greater Middle East stability?
- The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Obama Doctrine | Tuesday, April 12th | 1:00-3:30 | Middle East Policy Council | Email info@mepc.org to RSVP | Our panel will address Jeffrey Goldberg‘s essay, “The Obama Doctrine,” and how it impacts U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Please RSVP promptly for limited space. Speakers include James F. Jeffrey, Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, Alireza Nader, Senior International Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation, and Fahad Nazer, Senior Political Analyst, JTG, Inc. and Non-Resident Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. The moderator will be Richard Schmierer, Former Ambassador to Oman and Chairman of the Board of Directors, Middle East Policy Council.
- The Fourth Annual Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture: The Politics of Memory in East Asia | Tuesday, April 12th | 4:00-6:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II last year brought another round of contentious memory politics in East Asia. Despite the seeming sameness of the debates, in fact the practices and norms of public memory have substantially altered since the end of the war, creating what speaker Carol Gluck calls a “global memory culture.” Changes in the law, politics, society, criteria of knowledge, and concepts of responsibility have transformed our understanding of what it means to do justice to the past. How then do these changes relate to the politics of memory in East Asia today? Carol Gluck, George Sansom Professor of History at Columbia University, will speak.
- Outlook for Security and Integration of Albania and the Western Balkans | Wednesday, April 13th | 9:30-11:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since the collapse of the communist regime more than two decades ago, Albania has undergone significant political, economic, and social reforms. Albania became a NATO member in 2009, a European Union (EU) candidate country in 2014, and signed a declaration of strategic partnership with the United States in 2015. Given the increasingly fragmented climate among EU member states over Europe’s capacity to overcome current challenges, the EU’s enlargement agenda has lost momentum. Meanwhile, instability in the Western Balkans has been fueled by unprecedented waves of refugees, and political and economic uncertainty to the South and East. As Prime Minister, H.E. Edi Rama plays a significant role in directing the path for Albania in EU accession negotiations and regional cooperation, particularly through the Berlin Process framework of annual summits in the Western Balkans. In his visit to Washington, DC, Prime Minister Rama will address Albania’s security priorities and goals for the NATO Warsaw Summit, and provide views on Albania’s reform progress.
- Supporting Tunisia’s Imperiled Transition | Thursday, April 14th | 8:30-12:15 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Tunisia remains the Arab Awakening’s last best hope. Its political transition is as remarkable as it is fragile—imperiled by both security challenges and significant socioeconomic obstacles. Join us for a discussion of how Tunisia and its international partners can forge a new and more constructive dynamic and reverse the country’s recent troubling trajectory. This event will launch a new Carnegie report entitled Between Peril and Promise: A New Framework for Partnership With Tunisia. Panels and panelists may be found here.
- Turkey, its neighborhood, and the international order | Thursday, April 14th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Increasingly, there are concerns about the direction of Turkey’s politics, economy, security, and foreign policy. Debate is growing about the Turkish economy’s vibrancy, and its commitment to democratic norms is being questioned. Moreover, against the backdrop of the chaos in the region, its ability to maintain peace and order is hindered. These difficulties coincide with a larger trend in which the global economy remains fragile, European integration is fracturing, and international governance seems under duress. The spill-over from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq has precipitated a refugee crisis of historic scale, testing the resolve, unity, and values of the West. Will these challenges prove pivotal in reshaping the international system? Will these trials ultimately compel the West to formulate an effective collective response? Will Turkey prove to be an asset or a liability for regional security and order? On April 14, the Turkey Project of the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings will host a discussion to assess Turkey’s strategic orientation amid the ever-changing international order. Panelists will include Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Bruce Jones, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan of the University of Maryland, and Francis Riccardone of the Atlantic Council. Cansen Başaran-Symes, president of the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSİAD) will make introductory remarks. Turkey Project Director and TÜSİAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirişci will moderate the discussion. After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience.
- From ISIS to Declining Oil Prices: Qubad Talabani on the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Challenges | Thursday, April 14th | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Opening remarks will be made by Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace. H.E. Qubad Talabani, Deputy Prime Minister, Kurdistan Regional Government, will speak. Henri J. Barkey, Director, Middle East Program, Wilson Center, will moderate. Please join us on April 14 for a discussion with Qubad Talabani, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq (KRG). Long an island of stability in a Middle East marked by conflict, the Kurdish region of Iraq now faces a perfect storm. Its finances have been severely affected by the dramatic decline in the price of oil, its main source of revenue. The KRG also faces a constitutional crisis because President Masoud Barzani’s term has ended without the Kurdish political parties finding a definitive way forward or agreement on succession. And the KRG’s Peshmerga military force is engaged with the United States and its allies in an extended offensive to rout the self-declared Islamic State extremist group and liberate the nearby city of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest. Amidst all of this, President Barzani also has indicated that the KRG will hold a referendum in 2016 on whether the region should seek independence from Iraq.
- A New Economic Growth Strategy for Pakistan: A Conversation with Pakistani Finance Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar | Thursday, April 14th | 2:30-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | When Pakistan’s current government took office in June 2013, the economy was under tremendous stress. Nearly three years later, estimates suggest that the economy could achieve 4.5 percent GDP growth in fiscal year 2015-16, which would be the highest rate in eight years. Inflation and interest rates have decreased, tax revenues have grown, and the fiscal deficit has shrunk. Additionally, foreign exchange reserves have crossed $20 billion for the first time in history. Meanwhile, the government recently had a successful 10th review from the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, however, the government confronts political, security, and energy challenges that have hindered a full economic recovery. At this event, His Excellency Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s finance minister, will unveil a new two-year strategy to place Pakistan’s economic growth on par with that of other emerging economies in South Asia. He will also speak about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Pakistan’s current security situation.
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Unworthy
I do talking head gigs for PressTV, Tehran’s official English-language service, every few weeks, thinking it is useful for Iranians to hear now and again an American perspective on the many issues that divide us. Most of PressTV‘s American commentators are unknowns who spout a pro-Tehran, anti-American line.
Yesterday’s broadcast included Mohammad Marandi, an articulate and distinguished professor at the University of Tehran. The program is for the most part self-explanatory. I recommend watching it: .
Towards the end Professor Marandi cites an interview by Al Jazeera with retired American General Michael Flynn. This interview is virtually unknown in the US, but plays an outsized role in Iran, where it is taken as crucial evidence that Washington knowingly and intentionally supported the Islamic State in 2012 and has continued to do so. I got little chance to respond on the air, and in any event the Flynn interview, sliced and diced by Russia Today, requires more than a brief comment on TV.
Flynn was head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) July 2012-August 2014. Al Jazeera starts the interview citing this apparently archived exchange from Fox News:
Michael Flynn (archive): I’ve been at war with Islam, or a, or a component of Islam, for the last decade.
Mehdi Hasan (VO): And bonded by a common enemy, can the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran finally work out their differences?
Michael Flynn (archive): I could go on and on all day about Iran and their behaviour, you know, and their lies, flat out lies, and then their spewing of constant hatred, no matter whenever they talk.
Funny thing: I never hear Tehran cite that opening line. Nor do they cite the parts of the interview in which Flynn blames “Islam” for extremist ideology.
He goes on to say that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake, but so too was the withdrawal:
Michael Flynn: [TALKING OVER Yeah, ]I, I mean, I hate to say it’s not my job but that – my job was to ensure that the accuracy of our intelligence that was being presented was as good as it could be, and I will tell you, it goes before 2012. I mean, when we were, when we were in Iraq and we still had decisions to be made before there was a decision to pull out of Iraq in 2011. I mean, it was very clear what we were, what we were going to face.
Flynn is obviously inarticulate, so it is not very clear what he means, but I imagine he is claiming that he anticipated the rise of extremists. Then comes this:
Mehdi Hasan: – “declared or undeclared Salafist” – it’s not secret any more, it was released under FOI. The quote is: “There is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist Principality in eastern Syria and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want in order to isolate the Syrian regime.” The US saw the ISIL caliphate coming and did nothing.
Michael Flynn: Yeah, I think that what we – where we missed the point. I mean, where we totally blew it, I think, was in the very beginning. I mean, we’re talking four years now into this effort in Syria. Most people won’t even remember, it’s only been a couple of years: The Free Syrian Army, that movement. I mean, where are they today? Al-Nusra. Where are they today, and what have … how much have they changed? When you don’t get in and help somebody, they’re gonna find other means to achieve their goals. And I think right now, what we have allowed is we’ve got –
I think what Flynn is saying here is that we were slow to support the moderates and should have done more early in the game, because failure to do so allowed extremism to develop. But that is not what Tehran wants to hear, so they cite this:
Mehdi Hasan: Let me – let me just to, before we move on, just to clarify once more, you are basically saying that even in government at the time, you knew those [Salafist extremist] groups were around. You saw this analysis –
Michael Flynn: [TALKING OVER] Sure.
Mehdi Hasan: – and you were arguing against it. But who wasn’t listening?
Michael Flynn: I think the administration.
Mehdi Hasan: So the administration turned a blind eye to your analysis –
Michael Flynn: I don’t know if they turned a blind eye. I think it was a decision. I think it was a wilful[sic].
Mehdi Hasan: A wilful decision to go – support an insurgency that had Salafist, al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood?
That’s where Tehran and Moscow like to stop, but Flynn actually went on:
Michael Flynn: [INTERRUPTING] Well, a wilful decision to do what they’re doing, which, which you have to really – you have to really ask the President, what is it that he actually is doing with the, with the policy that is in place, because it is very, very confusing? I’m sitting here today, Mehdi, and I don’t, I can’t tell you exactly what that is, and I’ve been at this for a long time.
So Flynn said there was a willful decision, but he did not say it was a willful decision to support Salafists, Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood. The interviewer asks that question and Flynn refuses to give an answer, saying he doesn’t understand what the Administration was doing and you’ll have to ask the President. Flynn is clearly an opponent of the Obama Administration and doing his best to suggest it is soft on terrorism, but it would have been foolish of him to suggest Washington supported it.
Of course even if Flynn had said what Tehran and Moscow allege, that would only be the view of only one retired general, one with distinctly anti-Muslim, anti-Iranian and anti-Obama views.
Let me be clear on my own view of what happened. The Islamic State of today has its origins in the Al Qaeda-affiliated Islamic State in Iraq (ISI), as Professor Marandi correctly said in the PressTV program. It gained traction in Iraq, especially in 2006/7, due in part to Iran’s ally in Syria, Bashar al Assad, who allowed extremists and supplies to funnel into Iraq from Syria. But by 2010, the Americans had decimated ISI.
It was the chaos in Syria that allowed today’s Islamic State to rise from the ashes. That chaos was due to Bashar al Assad’s military crackdown on the nonviolent rebellion that started in Syria in March 2011. Tehran has supported Assad’s crackdown with oil and money, military advisers and commanders, and Hizbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops. Few of those efforts, however, have been directed against the Islamic State. That’s why Assad undertook the recent offensive to chase the Islamic State from Palmyra: in order to burnish his credentials as a fighter against extremists, credentials needed at the ongoing UN peace negotiations.
The US, by contrast, has targeted its efforts against IS, both in Syria and in Iraq. US airstrikes as well as assistance to Iraqi forces is entirely focused on IS. The US has also insisted that the rebels in Syria focus their attention on IS, notoriously to the dismay of those who would like the US to provide more support for the fight against the Assad regime. The US may have been much less discriminating in 2012, as General Flynn suggests in the interview, but it is wrong to suggest that Washington ever supported the Islamic State or Al Qaeda. Tehran should drop that line, which as I said on PressTV is unworthy.
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Inclusive governance matters
Lebanon’s Assafir newspaper asked a few questions the other day. I answered:
Q: How do you explain the continuous US delay for the Mosul battle ?
A: I would find it easier to explain the Iraqi Government’s setting of unrealistic deadlines, which it does in an effort to prevent political criticism. The Americans are not in a hurry, because they know this will be a big and difficult job fraught with risk. They want it done right.
Q: Many see that Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria are interrelated battles. Why? And what do you think?
A: These are the two centers of gravity of the Islamic State. It can’t afford to lose either one, and if it does it will retreat to the other.
Q: How do you explain that the US is leading the military effort in western Iraq, and the Russians are doing the same in the preparation in eastern Syria?
A: I’m not really sure that is correct. US and Coalition aircraft and US-backed ground forces have been very active in eastern Syria. So far as I know, Russian intervention there is limited to relatively few bombing runs. Moscow’s main effort has been against moderate rebel forces in the west.
Q: How do you see the contradictions in the US war on terrorism when it comes to Syria and Iraq?
A: In Iraq the US is backing a government it thinks sincerely committed to fighting terrorism. In Syria, Washington is backing rebels it thinks are sincerely committed to fighting terrorism. I wouldn’t describe that as a contradiction.
The biggest issue in my mind is how territories taken back from the Islamic State will be governed. I think Haider al Abadi will try to govern in an inclusive way. I doubt Bashar al Assad will.
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Getting peace to the pointy end of the spear
The Foundation Center and and the Peace and Security Funders Group this morning offer a flashy new webpage and report, “The Peace and Security Funding Index: an Analysis of Global Foundation Grantmaking.” The report, not really an “index” in my way of thinking, is the first of an annual series. It’s a brave effort to assemble in one place the who, what and where of private grants related to peace and security worldwide.
The result is a molehill: $283 million from 288 foundations spread across nearly 2000 grants to 1200 organizations. Even assuming that the survey has missed almost as much grant money as it has tallied, the total is likely under 1% of the Foundation Center’s total of $25 billion in grants in 2013. Most conflict countries are poor and many poor countries are in conflict. So this is a remarkably small amount devoted to a problem that on the face of it would appear to merit much more.
This is not for lack of US participation. The top six peace and security grant makers are American: Open Society (Soros), Carnegie Corp., National Endowment for Democracy, Ford, Buffett and MacArthur. So too are 12 of the top 15. Only Swiss, Dutch and Canadian foundations make it into that upper crust.
The bulk of the money (64%) went to a category labelled “stability” that ranges pretty far from the pointy end of the spear to include things like climate security, national security, foreign policy and diplomacy. Not that I object: I teach many of those things and appreciate that a good deal of the material I rely on comes from some of these grants. Twenty per cent of the total was spent on research and evaluation. Three-quarters of the money went to institutions in the developed world (the Global North in the report, which isn’t intended literally). One-third went to global issues. Africa was the region most focused on.
The newly minted Sustainable Development Goals include no. 16: “promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels.” Peppered throughout the other goals are many other peace and security objectives. It seems to me private foundations might do well to ponder steering a bit more money and effort in that direction.
Of course one of the reasons they don’t is that they can’t. This may sound odd: conflict zones have become downright dangerous. That wasn’t always so true. There is an enormous difference between working for peace and security in Kosovo and Bosnia during the wars there and trying to do anything like that in Syria, Libya or Yemen today. Even Ukraine is far less permissive than the Balkans of 20 plus years ago.
An Iraqi engineer visited me today. A Muslawi who worked for more than a decade to build democratic local governance there, he is now an expatriate, chased from his hometown by the Islamic State. I imagine he is unlikely to return permanently to his country, or to encourage his soon-to-be American children to do so, whatever his current intentions may be.
So in addition to urging the private foundations to spend more overall on peace and security, I’d also like to urge them to spend more on figuring out how to get their resources closer to the conflict zones that really count today. Technology gives us capabilities to track and aggregate information gathered remotely. I am thinking of the work of Bellingcat and Caerus, as well as many others. Information is flowing very rapidly out of conflict zones. What we need to do now is turn that information into on-the-ground efforts that produce peace and security. Easier said than done, I know, but still worth saying and contemplating.
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Peace Picks April 4-8
- Is Europe Post-Secular? Religion and Politics in the European Union | Monday, April 4th | 12:00-1:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Recent terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels have put religion back on the European agenda. François Foret will discuss his book, Religion and Politics in the European Union: The Secular Canopy, which analyzes the place and influence of religion in European politics. He presents the first ever data collected on the religious beliefs of European decision makers and how they act on these beliefs. Discussing popular assumptions such as the resurgence of religion, aggressive European secularism, and religious lobbying, Foret offers objective data and frameworks to analyze major issues in the contemporary political debate.
- The European Refugee Surge: Transforming Challenges into Opportunities | Tuesday, April 5th | 9:00-10:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The humanitarian catastrophe that is now unfolding at the gates of Europe raises profound challenges as well as opportunities to European nations. In the long term, growth will depend on how effectively they integrate in the labor market. The panel will ask the question: Which policies can ensure that this challenge is transformed into a success story? The report presentation will be followed by a panel discussion between American and European experts who will shed light on best practices in migration policy and lessons learned on both sides of the Atlantic. The event is part of the Atlantic Council’s transatlantic EuroGrowth Initiative, focused on getting Europe back on the path to sustainable economic growth by convening top policymakers, business leaders, and academics who work to identify and apply best practices and policies on both sides of the Atlantic. Antonio Spilimbergo, Head of Mission to Turkey for the International Monetary Fund, will present a report. Other panelists include Moreno Bertoldi, Principal Advisor to EU Delegation to the US, and Laura Lane, UPS President of Global Affairs. Katerina Sokou, Kathimerini Greek Daily’s Washington DC Correspondent, will moderate.
- Global Military Spending and the Arms Trade: Trends and Implications | Tuesday, April 5th | 10:00-11:30 | The Forum on the Arms Trade Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Global military expenditure and the international arms trade are driven by changing economic circumstances, shifting priorities, emerging security threats, and regional and international instability. Examining the recent trends in the global arms market and in the budgets of government militaries allows us to identify potential hot-spots and future areas of concern. Each year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) releases data on current trends in military spending and international arms transfers. SIPRI’s Military Expenditure Database contains information on defense spending by almost all countries, and monitors broader trends that emerge over time. Likewise, SIPRI’s arms transfers database identifies top exporters and importers of conventional weapons. Drawn from open source documents, SIPRI’s databases provides analysis on the economic, political and security drivers that influence military spending around the world and offers insights into their implications for global peace, security and development. Please join us on April 5, 2016 to discuss the findings of SIPRI’s most recent data and the potential implications on U.S. national security and foreign policy. This event will present major findings and key trends in global military expenditures and international arms sales.This event is co-hosted by SIPRI, the Forum on the Arms Trade and the Stimson Center. Speakers includeAude Fleurant, Director, Arms and Military Expenditure Programme, SIPRI, Gordon Adams, Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center, and Aaron Mehta, Senior Pentagon Correspondent, Defense News. Rachel Stohl, Senior Associate, Stimson Center, will moderate.
- Latin America in International Politics: Challenging US Hegemony | Tuesday, April 5th | 4:00-6:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In recent years, the countries of Latin America have moved out from under the shadow of the United States to exercise their agency as active players in the international system. What changed? Why? And why did it take so long for that change to happen? A new book by former Latin American Program Director Joseph S. Tulchin, Latin America in International Politics: Challenging US Hegemony, explores the evolving role of Latin American states in world affairs from the early days of independence to the present. Please join us for a book discussion featuring Dr. Tulchin along with commentary from two distinguished diplomats. This includes Juan Gabriel Valdés, Chile Ambassador to the US, and Luigi Einaudi, Former Assistant Secretary General of the Organization of American States. Cynthia J. Arnson, Director of the Latin American Program at the Wilson Center, will moderate. A reception will follow.
- Saudi Arabia’s Regional Role and the Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations | Wednesday, April 6th | 2:30-4:00 | Project on Middle East Democracy | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Saudi Arabia has long been one of the United States’ closest allies in the Middle East, among the largest recipients of U.S. arms sales globally, and perceived as a crucial partner in the war on terrorism. Nonetheless, there have always been serious questions regarding the costs of the U.S.-Saudi military relationship, which have become more pronounced over the past year. The Saudi military intervention in Yemen has resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians, and recent executions in the Kingdom, including of nonviolent dissidents, have renewed longstanding concerns about the state of human rights in the Kingdom. In addition, concerns remain about Saudi support for extremist networks in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere, as well as the impact of Saudi militarism on divisions throughout the region. How has Saudi Arabia’s role in the region changed in recent years, and what has driven these changes? What relationships have various factions in Saudi Arabia had with extremist movements throughout the Middle East and North Africa? What impact does U.S. military support for Saudi Arabia have on the Kingdom’s role in the region, as well as on human rights concerns within the country? How have recent events, such as the ongoing conflict in Yemen, Saudi’s role in the Syrian conflict, and mass executions within Saudi Arabia, affected the U.S.-Saudi relationship? And what might we expect for the future of bilateral relations. This will be a conversation with Andrea Prasow, Deputy Washington Director, Human Rights Watch, Amb. Stephen Seche, Executive Vice President, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, and Stephen McInerney, Executive Director, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). It will be moderated by Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director for Research, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED).
- Is There Any Hope for Peace Talks in Afghanistan? If Not, Then What? | Wednesday, April 6th | 2:30-4:30 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In recent months, the Taliban has intensified its insurgency in Afghanistan. It now holds more territory than at any time since 2001. Civilian casualties reached record levels in 2015, and scores of Afghans are fleeing the country. In an effort to finally bring an end to Afghanistan’s 14-year war, Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and the United States have formed a Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QDC) to prepare the ground for peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Despite periods of progress, this effort has so far fallen short. What will it take to launch and conclude a successful peace process? And if it fails, what’s next for Afghanistan? This event will consider these questions and others, with particular focus on the thinking of the four QDC countries. Speakers include Vanda Felbab-Brown, Senior Fellow at Brookings, Raoof Hasan, Executive Director of the Regional Peace Institute in Pakistan, Barnett Rubin, Senior Fellow and Associate Director of the Center on International Cooperation for New York University, and Andrew Small, Trans-Atlantic Fellow of the Asia Program at German Marshall Fund.
- Distract, Deceive, Destroy: Putin at War in Syria | Tuesday, April 5th | 2:30-4:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Atlantic Council for the release of Distract Deceive Destroy—Putin at War in Syria. While President Putin announced the end of Russia’s military operations with much fanfare, the modest forces withdrawn thereafter suggest that by no means is Russia’s military role in Syria over. Using digital forensic research and open source investigation methods, a new Atlantic Council report presents the reality of Russia’s Syrian campaign: Russia launched air strikes on hospitals, water treatment plants, and mosques. Russia used cluster bombs. Russia almost exclusively targeted non-ISIS targets—Truths that Russia will not admit, but truths that must be understood when negotiating with Russia as a potential partner. Panelists may be found here.
- A Conversation with NATO Secretary General H.E. Jens Stoltenberg | Wednesday, April 6th | 4:00-5:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Alliance is facing a broad range of challenges of unprecedented complexity and increasing urgency. Confronted with a newly aggressive Russia to its east and an arc of instability across the Middle East and North Africa, NATO must take bold and innovative steps to respond to a fast-changing security landscape. Secretary General Stoltenberg will join the Atlantic Council to discuss NATO’s strategy to deal with the serious challenges along the Alliance’s flanks, and outline the Alliance’s priorities for its summit in Warsaw this summer. Jens Stoltenberg has been Secretary General of NATO since October 2014 after a distinguished career in Norwegian politics. As Prime Minister of Norway from 2000-2001 and then 2005-2013, Mr. Stoltenberg played an instrumental role in strengthening Norwegian armed forces and fostering stronger transatlantic unity on challenges close to Alliance territory. During his tenure in the Norwegian government, he also served as Minister of Finance, Minister of Industry and Energy, and State Secretary at the Ministry of the Environment. Throughout his career, Stoltenberg has held a number of international assignments, including Chair of the UN High-level Panel on System-wide Coherence, Chair of the High-level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing, and UN Special Envoy on Climate Change. Mr. Stoltenberg holds a postgraduate degree in Economics from the University of Oslo.
- Looting and Trafficking of Antiquities in the Middle East | Thursday, April 7th | 9:30-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | While the world watched in horror as ISIS destroyed the ancient city of Palmyra, the terrorist organization was simultaneously conducting a second—and nearly invisible—form of cultural destruction: looting antiquities from archaeological sites. These artifacts, along with material culture from similarly plundered sites throughout the rest of the Middle East, have been funneled through a complicated network and sold to collectors throughout the world, most of whom are unaware of their origins. Join us as four experts discuss the global illicit antiquities market and its impact on how the modern world views the true value of these ancient artifacts. Speakers include Tess Davis, Executive Director, Antiquities Coalition, Iris Gerlach, Head of the Sanaa Branch of the Oriental Department, German Archaeological Institute, Monica Hanna, Egyptian archaeologist (via Skype), and Alexander Nagel, Research Associate, Smithsonian Institution’s National Museum of Natural History.The moderator will be Henri J. Barkey, Director, Middle East Program, Wilson Center.
- Securing development in insecure places | Thursday, April 7th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The defining development challenge for the next 15 years will be whether rapid progress can be made in conflict-affected places. The historical record is mixed. Some countries, for example Cambodia, have put conflict behind, achieved rapid economic growth, and brought down poverty levels significantly, while others, such as Afghanistan, continue to have stubbornly high rates of poverty with little discernable progress over the last decade. On April 7, the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings will host a discussion on the links between security and development. Japan International Cooperation Agency President Shinichi Kitaoka will lead off with a keynote address on the interaction between security and development and what Japan has learned from its development cooperation in Mindanao, Syria, and South Sudan. He will then join a panel discussion moderated by Brookings Senior Fellow Homi Kharas. Panelists include Sharon Morris, State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, Bruce Jones, Project on International Order and Strategy Senior Fellow, and Joel Hellman, Dean at Georgetown University. Afterwards, questions will be taken from the audience.
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Rula Ghani thinks Afghanistan is progressing
On Thursday, the Atlantic Council hosted “The New Afghanistan: A Conversation with Rula Ghani,” Afghanistan’s First Lady. Fred Kempe, Atlantic Council CEO and President, offered welcoming remarks, and former Ambassador to Afghanistan James B. Cunningham introduced Ghani. 2015 was the first full year in office for the “unity” government. It has had to deal with renewed Taliban violence.
Ghani underlined how important listening is in her position. When her husband entered office, she had no specific plan except to serve the people of Afghanistan, especially vulnerable ones. Ghani wanted to reflect the actual current situation in Afghanistan, as she believes the media has portrayed a different picture from reality on the ground. Journalists are so pressed to break a news story first that they are imprecise in their fact checking.
Several myths have arisen about Afghanistan, according to Ghani. The first myth is that the Taliban are winning. Ghani pointed out the Taliban does not control enough territory for this to be declared. The second myth is that the United States lost the war. The US was not at war with the Afghan people and came to take out Bin Laden. They accomplished this goal, so the war was not a loss. The next myth is that the 2014 electoral process was fraudulent. The UN Commission carried out three recounts and was unable to discover fraud on an industrial scale. Ghani thinks that democracies should believe in the voice of the people, so the 2014 vote should not be doubted.
Another myth she addressed was that of the unity government’s failure. It takes time to create a new government, and some trust should be put into this current one. Building the unity government is a long-term effort. It takes time to replace violence with the rule of law.
Ghani addressed the notion that women are worse off now and are not taking part in the peace process. Women constantly come to see her and raise concerns about violence in Afghanistan. As a result, an emergency fund for victims of violence has been created. Congregations of religious scholars gather to discuss women’s equal treatment and their relationship with sharia law. Afghanistan also has passed new regulations regarding sexual harassment in the workplace. The police aim to recruit 5,000 women and have now passed the halfway mark. The country is working to integrate women into all aspects of society. Integration in the cities is a much easier process than in the rural provinces, though. Providing education in the provinces is proving a difficult task.
In the audience question and answer portion of the talk, Ghani cited past mistakes regarding foreign development and investment projects. The USAID Promote Program aims to help women. Ghani does not want this program to repeat past mistakes. This type of program needs follow-up after workshops that supposedly give women skills for the workplace. The program needs to ensure that their work is substantial, so women can apply the new skills in a real-life, practical way.
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