When and where America really was great

Wherever I go abroad–on this trip to Podgorica, Belgrade and Sarajevo–the topic people most want to discuss is–you guessed it–Donald Trump. Across political sympathies, religions, genders and ages, people are fascinated and mostly disgusted by his appeal to Americans. The exception is a few of the more nationalist leaders in the Balkans, who are Trumpites because they admire his autocratic style and remember that he was a vigorous opponent of the NATO war against Yugoslavia.

Here is what I tell my Balkans interlocutors: Trump reflects a real and important slice of the American electorate. His greatest strength is among white, working class males, many of whom have not seen a rise in income for decades. They incline towards blaming others, which makes some of them xenophobic, misogynist and racist. Europeans in particular should understand this, as many European countries are suffering analogous rises of comparable nationalist political forces. Trump has discovered how to tap into nationalist sentiment, much the way the UK Independence Party, Marine LePen in France, and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban have done.

Hillary Clinton is a much better known figure worldwide, but especially in Europe and the Balkans. If elected, I expect her to continue what has become traditional American policy in the region: support for democratization and European Union accession for the seven successor states to former Yugoslavia (two of which have already succeeded) plus Albania and openness to NATO accession for those who want it. As on many (but not all) other issues, Clinton is likely to serve the moral equivalent of Barack Obama’s third term. After all, Obama has delegated the Balkans mostly to Vice President Biden, who was a strong supporter of Bill Clinton’s 1990s interventions in the Balkans and a close associate of Clinton thereafter when both were in the Senate.

The odds are heavily in Clinton’s favor, but no one can reliably predict the outcome of American elections, especially six months out. A relatively strong economy, revulsion at Trump’s more extreme and erratic stands, and dissent from his candidacy within the Republican elite (and to some extent in its base) favor Clinton. The American electorate is increasingly Hispanic, female, gay and aging, all categories that will vote disproportionately for Clinton. Some establishment Republicans have made it clear they will support her, though many more are now flocking to Trump, despite his obvious lack of conservative credentials on social issues. Independents, who decide most American elections, are leaning towards Clinton.

That said, stuff happens. A mass casualty terrorist attack or a sudden economic downturn would tilt the table towards Trump. So too will Clinton’s “negatives”: many Americans regard her as untrustworthy and excessively tied to Wall Street. The North Atlantic and Pacific coasts seem pretty solid for Clinton right now, but there is a lot of political turf in between. Billionaire New Yorker Trump is not a natural fit with the heartland, but he has surprised all observers during the primaries and may continue to do so, as he adjusts his positions to garner more mainstream support. His shifting stances do not seem to weaken his core support.

Election of Trump would really do serious damage on the foreign policy front. Even if he is unable or unwilling to follow through on his promises to get Mexico to pay to build a wall on the border, block Muslims from entering the US, withdraw from NATO and allow South Korea and Japan to build nuclear weapons, it will take months or even years for the course corrections to become clear. In the meanwhile, a great deal of damage will be done.

In the Balkans, uncertainty about American policy will allow all sorts of crackpot proposals to emerge in the next six months. I’ve already heard from some who claim that Trump will unrecognize Kosovo. No doubt others will emerge suggesting ethnic partition of Kosovo, Bosnia and Macedonia. But Donald Trump, who is married to a Slovenian, is nevertheless unlikely to pay even passing attention to the Balkans, which are way down the list of American priorities. Apart from rallying a few Serb voters in Ohio with an offhand remark or two, he is likely to focus much more fury on the mess in the Middle East, on the Chinese challenge and on his much-vaunted promise to make America great again.

He will ignore the very real accomplishments Washington delivered in ending the war in Bosnia, saving Kosovo Albanians from expulsion, and rescuing Macedonia by diplomatic means. America really was great in the Balkans during the unipolar 1990s.