peacefare.net

A step down the slippery slope

Juan Cole is predicting long-term repercussions from the move of Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with US support into the 90-mile stretch just south of the Turkish border known as the “Manbij pocket” and heretofore under Islamic State (ISIS) rule. At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan is saying that most of the SDF force is Arab, allowing him to welcome the US-supported move. A lot depends on who is right.

Turkish and American interests potentially converge in the Manbij pocket, which has been the subject of Washington/Ankara discussions for months if not years. Ankara wants to ensure that the Kurds do not take over the area, which would give them contiguous territory all the way from Hasakah in Syria’s northeast to Afrin in the west. Washington wants to defeat ISIS in the Manbij pocket, as it is an important route for recruits and supplies. Attacking Manbij will also relieve pressure on Azaz, where ISIS is challenging relatively moderate opposition rebels defending a vital supply route of their own.

The big issue is not only about who will fight for the Manbij pocket but rather who will control it after the fact. The Americans say the Kurds are relatively few and will not stay, which is reassuring to the Turks. Instead, they will withdraw and presumably refocus again on Raqqa. That would be ideal, but it also cuts against the grain. Forces that take territory usually keep it, especially if they perceive strategic benefits from doing so. Only vigorous American insistence will convince the Kurds to give up what they no doubt see as vital to their prospects for a clearly defined Kurdish-ruled territory within an eventual post-war Syria.

That is precisely what Erdogan wants to prevent, as he views the Syrian Kurds as a wholly owned subsidiary of the Kurdish PKK rebellion inside Turkey. Having re-initiated the war against the PKK, the Turkish President will not be able to accept Syrian Kurdish gains that he views as directly threatening to his country. There is no sign he is willing to make his peace with the Syrian or Turkish Kurds, as seemed likely only a few years ago. He is determined to ride the wave of Turkish nationalism his crackdown on the Kurds has generated as far as it will take him. He aims to change the constitution and enhance the powers of the presidency.

The Americans have a great deal of say about who will control the Manbij pocket if and when ISIS is defeated there. They will need American air power to protect them. This will enable, or extend, a de facto no-fly zone in northern Syria. The SDF invasion of the Manbij pocket is a hesitant step down a slippery slope that President Obama has tried to avoid.