peacefare.net

Hold your breath

About half the readers of www.peacefare.net are non-American, so I feel some obligation to try to explain what is going on in the US presidential campaign to a foreign audience. Americans can tune out if they like, though some may want to verify whether what I have to say tracks with their own understanding.

We’ve long had only two dominant parties at the national level in the US: Republicans on the center right and Democrats on the center left. The Republicans have traditionally been for limited national government, strong emphasis on defense, law and order, and in favor of free trade and low taxes, especially on investors and wealthy individuals. They have generally opposed abortion and gay marriage, making them in American parlance “conservative” on social issues. The Democrats in recent years have advocated national government intervention to protect civil rights and reduce income inequality, somewhat less emphasis on defense and crime, free but fair trade, and somewhat higher taxes, especially on the well-heeled. They have been more open to abortion and gay marriage, making them “liberal” on social issues.

So far, this may all sound familiar, as it resembles the political spectra in many other countries. But there is a lot more to the story, especially this time around.

Race is the first factor upsetting the normal division between Democrats and Republicans. After more than seven years of a black president, relatively uneducated whites, once a Democratic constituency, are in rebellion. Anyplace but America, they would be called “working class,” but here we refer to them as (lower) middle class in order to avoid class struggle implications. They have good reason to be unhappy: their incomes have stagnated for more than 40 years while the gap with upper income people has widened dramatically. International trade and a more competitive domestic economy have forced many to change jobs, often garnering lower wages.

They blame this on the black president, black people in general, trade and immigrants, many of whom are Hispanic, even though immigration from Mexico is down and Obama has done little for free trade. Donald Trump has embraced this meme and promoted it, contrary to what the Republicans had intended in this election cycle. Their plan was to reach out to Hispanic and black voters, many of whom are conservative on social and economic issues. Trump has gone in the other direction, in particular by criticizing and opposing immigration. He has also reversed traditional Republican support of free trade, while continuing to be hawkish on defense and anti-tax, especially when it comes to the wealthy.

This is clearly not in the interest of Trump’s lower middle class white supporters, who stand to lose services and gain little from tax cuts for the rich, but they want what they call their country back, meaning back from black people and Hispanics. Trump has learned how to appeal to these white racist voters. His supporters think he will end the foreign trade as well as domestic labor market competition they find unwelcome. Blacks were fewer than 1% of the delegates at the Republican convention (they are more than 12% of the US population). Hispanics were around 5% (people with Hispanic roots of one sort or another make up more than 15% of the population). It is simply impossible to understand white lower middle class support for Trump without taking race and ethnicity into consideration.

Gender is another important factor, easier to fathom. Hillary Clinton will this week become the first woman in American history to be nominated for president by a major political party. She has an advantage among women, according to the polls. Trump appeals especially to men, including many who are not only racist and anti-immigrant but also misogynist. He has made no secret of his disdain for women in general and working women in particular. He deploys his (third) wife (two of them immigrants) and daughter as show girls who all but dance and sing his praises.

There are a lot of other things going on: criticism of Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State (especially with regard to Libya, despite a Congressional report clearing her of culpability) and abuse of her private email server, Russian support for Trump, his criticism of American allies and alliances, visceral reactions to terrorist attacks as well as anti-Muslim rhetoric and behavior. The Republican convention (and Trump’s acceptance speech) painted a grim picture of a deteriorating world and country under ferocious attack by Muslim militants and weakened by international trade. The Democratic convention will be far more upbeat, pointing to a growing economy, reduced unemployment, success in protecting the US from terror attacks mounted abroad and against the Islamic State in Syria and especially Iraq.

But the underlying issues are race and gender. Trump needs all the white male voters he can get, especially in the “rust belt” states of the Midwest. Clinton needs to slow their move in his direction while retaining her commanding leads with minorities and women. She certainly has my white male vote, but I’m a university professor and a resident of the District of Columbia, where Clinton will win upwards of 80 or perhaps 90% of the vote. The District is not the country, where Republican efforts to suppress minority turnout and Democratic efforts to promote it may be critical in deciding the outcome in several “swing” states.

America runs real elections, this time with a real choice. Hold your breath until it’s over.