No matter how many black churches
Today is Labor Day in the U.S. We don’t commemorate it May 1 like the rest of the world. Why is pretty obscure, hidden in the mists of past American labor protests, though I’ve always thought it was to maintain the anti-Communist character of the mainstream American labor movement.
Labor Day for us marks the end of summer vacations (even if school has already begun in many places), a welcome day off, and the traditional start of election season, which this year ends November 8. The campaigns are already in full swing. The the probability of a Clinton win, which has been declining from a figure ridiculously close to 90%, seems to be leveling off around 70%. But two months in American politics is a long time. A lot can still happen.
The labor market is one of the key variables. Average monthly job growth has been pretty steady, if relatively slow compared to previous recoveries, since the beginning of the economic recovery two years into the Obama administration:
The cumulative impact is pretty dramatic: more than 15 million jobs added since early 2010, when things started looking up, and an unemployment rate today of 4.9%. This is a sterling record, even if marred by relatively slow economic growth and a decline in the percentage of people looking for jobs.
For electoral purposes, the main point is this: the pace of growth and job creation isn’t likely to change in the next two months, a factor that should favor a Clinton victory. The Federal Reserve is still considering a September rate increase, but a relatively weak job growth figure last month and the absence of inflation are likely to weigh against it.
The big risks to Clinton come from a Trump campaign that has mobilized two powerful forces against her: male white supremacy and distaste for her air of privilege. The former has roots in the economy, as white males have not benefited much from the Obama recovery. Some of them have been quick to blame blacks and Hispanics, who also haven’t benefited all that much from the Obama recovery. The biggest benefits have gone to high-income people.
The air of privilege is something even Clinton supporters deplore. She all too often behaves as if the rules don’t apply to her. This is most obvious in her unauthorized use of a private email server as Secretary of State, which put classified material at risk and removed official communications from eventual public scrutiny. No one has demonstrated any harm to American national security as a result, and most of the emails have now been recovered and will be part of the public record, but appearances count.
The three presidential debates (September 26, October 9, and October 19) will be important moments as the campaign crescendos. Avoiding flubs is important, but so too is projecting an image that Americans will accept as “presidential.” Trump is thought to have the disadvantage in that respect, but Clinton has an uphill climb too: this will be the first time Americans see a woman in a presidential debate during the electoral campaign. She certainly knows her stuff, on that there should be little concern. But can she communicate the empathy and amiability she is often viewed as lacking?
I grew up thinking America’s political parties would never be able to offer us a real choice, because they nominated people who were indistinguishable in political philosophy and direction. Ironically that is even true of Trump and Clinton, because Trump is not a true conservative and offers ideas like infrastructure spending and “extreme” vetting of immigrants that are either part of the Obama/Clinton platform or already in place as government policy and practice.
But Trump’s lack of original ideas makes him no more acceptable to me than George Wallace a generation ago. He represents an effort to claw back white privilege from a demographic transition to a majority minority country (the Census Bureau projects that to happen by 2043). Those who treasure the most fundamental principles of American democracy–all of us are created equal–will reject him no matter how many black churches he visits in the next two months.
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