peacefare.net

Liz Sly is wrong

She is also one of the very best journalists covering Syria, so I’d better explain why I think her “No sign of Obama’s predicted ‘quagmire’ as Russia’s engagement in Syria escalates” in the Washington Post this morning is wrong.

The Russians are stuck in a quagmire because the Assad regime can no longer survive without them. If the war continues, Moscow will have to continue or even escalate its engagement further, in order to compensate for the deterioration of the Syrian armed forces. If the regime some day wins, or at least comes to dominate “useful Syria,” Moscow and Tehran will be responsible for reconstruction, the costs for which amount to hundreds of billions. Sure, the $10-11 billion or so per year that the war is costing Moscow is sustainable this year and next, but at some point it becomes a serious burden. And that is nothing compared to what will be required once the war is over.

Moscow (and Tehran) are heading for strategic defeat in Syria. What they have done to a large portion of the civilian population will not be forgotten. It is now difficult to picture any successor regime to Assad that would be friendly to Russian and Iranian interests. Sustaining Assad or one of his coterie in place will mean continuation of the war with extremists, whose recruitment is directly related to his abusive rule.

In the meanwhile, Syrians suffer from the excesses of the regime, the Russians, the Iranians, and the extremists. Pro-regime forces are using anti-personnel and incendiary weapons in civilian areas, where they target in particular rescue workers, an aid convoy, and hospitals. Moscow denies all this, but those denials are no more believable than its denial that one of its missiles shot down Malaysia Air flight 17 over a rebel area of Ukraine.

Quagmire is apparent only in the rear-view mirror. The Americans denied they were in a quagmire in Vietnam, until they withdrew. The Soviets did likewise in Afghanistan. Assad, or a successor who will continue the regime, cannot be kept in place without massive assistance. That’s a quagmire, even if the effort is successful. Until the withdrawal, when things come apart sooner or later.