Day: October 25, 2016
Professionalism
Diplomats traditionally dread release of their cables, which often convey private conversations with foreign government officials. Having left the State Department more than 18 years ago, I’ve lost that sensitivity.
That’s a good thing, as the leading Italian daily Corriere della Sera has gotten hold of some from US Embassy Rome (presumably through the Freedom of Information Act), where I was deputy chief of mission and frequent Charge’ d’affaires from 1990 to 1993. Those were turbulent years in Italy. Its magistrates were investigating corruption, especially among political party leaders. Their “Clean Hands” (Mani Pulite) effort was strikingly successful, shaking Italy’s Christian Democratic and Socialist parties to their foundations.
The Embassy of course had lots of contacts in those political parties, which had collaborated in preserving Italy’s Western orientation throughout the Cold War. But we also by that time were expanding our contacts in the former Communist Party and in the relatively new Northern League (Lega Nord). We were determined not to intervene in what was going on, but to follow it with care and elucidate the events for officials in Washington, who sometimes had exaggerated fears and excessive concerns.
The published account of our cables (ignore the headline) shows just that: an embassy doing a highly professional job in the midst of political turbulence. We talked to lots of different people but managed to stay out of the fray. Flying below the radar in Rome is not easy. Italians are inclined to think the Americans, in particular their ambassador, are behind everything important that happens in their world. They were also quick to think we would protect this or that accused politician. Those suspicions were disarmed: we neither generated Clean Hands nor shielded anyone from judicial investigation.
Such probity doesn’t make for big headlines. I’m told the story is attracting little attention in Rome. It will attract none in the US. Americans have already had a giant dose of diplomatic cables from Wikileaks. Interest has been limited to those that suggest scandal or malfeasance, especially by still active politicians.
Will the publication of these and other cables inhibit non-Americans from sharing their perspectives with our diplomats? I suppose it will make some people more cautious in what they say. But most politicians understand perfectly well that what they say to diplomats will be conveyed, in one form or another, to a foreign capital. Diplomats hear what people want them to hear. That’s why it is so important to listen to many voices and reach independent judgments about what to believe, or not. I may not want what I say to a diplomat published tomorrow, but I definitely want it noticed and reported.
One small note about diplomatic cables: they are all signed by whoever is in charge of the embassy, either the ambassador or a charge’ d’affaires. That does not mean he has read and signed each and every one before it is sent. A number of section chiefs in a big embassy like Rome will have the authority to sign off on a cable if it is judged not to merit top-level attention or if the head woman is unavailable for some reason. I frankly don’t remember which of the cables Corriere has quoted I or the ambassador signed, though much of the wording is familiar. I likely read all of them, if not before sending then afterwards. And I am proud of the professional tone and substance, whether I signed them or not!
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What the next president will face in the Middle East
On Monday the Middle East Institute hosted the launch of the November volume of The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. The event featured a panel of the Special Editors of the edition, Rand Beers, Richard A. Clarke, Emilian Papadopoulos, and Paul Salem, discussing the issue titled The Middle East and Regional Transition, Terrorism, and Countering Violent Extremism: What the Next President Will Face.
Clarke remarked that the next president will face a markedly different Middle East from eight years ago. The volume seeks to make specific recommendations for action as opposed to just a discussion of the issues. Two major and overlapping problems are determining how we see the issues:
- The number and role of failed states in the Middle East, of which there are now six or seven. These will continue to be a source of terrorism for some time.
- The role of ideologies, in particular how to address the violent jihadist ideology that is highly attractive to disaffected youth, not only in the Middle East but across all regions of the world.
Regarding the US role in Syria, Clarke recommends that we must not abandon the principle of ‘Assad must go’, as the US role in the Middle East will be permanently undermined if we do. The US must also take leadership in supporting the stabilization, economic stimulation and return of refugees in post-Islamic State Mosul and Raqqa, as simply removing IS from cities will not resolve any problems. Salem also suggested that the economic rebuilding of conflict zones in the Middle East is an opportunity to coordinate with China, which has demonstrated interest in building infrastructure and ensuring trade relationships in the region.
As former Deputy Homeland Security Advisor to the President, Beers focused on counter extremism measures. Since 2001 the focus has been on preventing the arrival of foreign nationals intending to commit terrorist acts in the US. But the trend has now shifted to radicalized Americans. Ninety-four people have been killed in the US by domestic terrorists since 2001, with 63 of those in the last year alone. The next administration must therefore focus on identifying individuals prior to their radicalization and on redirecting them. As the government itself is not particularly successful in communicating these messages the approach needs broadening beyond law enforcement agencies. Local nongovernmental organizations and religious organizations will be helpful partners in identifying those exhibiting patterns of behavior that suggest a move towards violent extremism.
Clarke remarked that to law enforcement’s credit there has not been a major foreign attack on American soil since 2001, however the next president should identify these successful components of the counter extremism program and cut down the excesses and inefficiencies that also plague the program.
Salem considers the Middle East to be in a perfect storm of dysfunction due to the disrupted regional order, the number of failed and fragile states, and underlying stress factors including demographic issues, climate change, and competing ideologies. He suggests some of the concerns in the Middle East that have dominated administrations in the past, such as Weapons of Mass Destruction and the flow of oil through the Gulf, are largely stable at this point, and Russia and China do not pose a direct threat to US security. Therefore the threat of terrorism should continue to be the primary concern of the US in the region.
The next administration, Salem thought, should continue to address IS and then focus on al Qaeda, try to rebuild the regional order, make more concerted efforts to end civil wars, and help to rebuild failed states. Salem agreed wholeheartedly with Clarke that Syria will not be resolved while Assad is still in power, but while waiting for a political solution the US must address the suffering of civilians. He considers President Obama to have failed in addressing humanitarian concerns. In response to a question on the future of the Sykes-Picot borders, Salem explained that the Middle East’s problems are primarily attributable to poor governance and institutions rather than the borders. The current borders are likely to endure but changes such as decentralization and federalism within states will be important.
The problems the next administration will face in the Middle East are complex, but the volume focuses on realistic recommendations for what can be achieved. The US must balance its military strength with non-military assets and smart power. While the Obama administration has cautiously withdrawn the next administration must reassert American leadership in the region and focus on re-establishing a regional order.
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