The problem with Tillerson

Everyone seems concerned that Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, is too close with the Russians and won’t be tough with them. That in my view is not the problem. Anyone who has successfully negotiated oil deals with Moscow on behalf of an American company has had to be tough.

The problems lie elsewhere:

1. with the President-elect himself;
2. in Tillerson’s international experience at Exxon.

Trump, who prides himself on negotiating skills, is approaching Moscow in a way that makes me doubt he has any at all. Rather than making it clear what Moscow needs to do to improve its relationship with the US–an end to destabilization in Europe and the Caucasus, withdrawal of Russian troops from all of Ukraine, real cooperation in reining in Bashar al Assad and attacking the Islamic State in Syria–Trump is putting the cart before the horse: he wants “improved relations” and appears willing to give rather than get. He has cast doubt on US commitment to NATO allies in the Baltics, has suggested he would accept Russian annexation of Crimea, pledged to drop US support for non-extremist opposition in Syria, and neglected to criticize Russia for its failure to attack the Islamic State.

Trump has never to my knowledge stated what he would ask from Russia for the improved relations he seeks. Putin however has made it clear that improved relations will have to be on his terms. He is planning to get without giving.

This fits of course with Trump’s refusal to acknowledge the Russian role and objectives in hacking the Democrats during the election campaign. He is not just soft on Russia. He has adopted Moscow’s views and even aligned himself with Moscow’s Wikileaks proxy, Julian Assange. Trump is doing just about everything he can to convince the world that he is Moscow’s patsy. How could a Secretary of State Tillerson be “tough” with the Russians if his president is their man?

Tillerson himself has proven skillful not only in negotiating with the Russian but also in gaining reserves for Exxon in the developing world, in particular its more autocratic corners. That also requires negotiating skills. What it does not require is any commitment to American values beyond the legal restrictions of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Exxon is famous worldwide for doing straight-up business deals: no do-g0od sweeteners. This has served the company well: it makes most of its money outside the United States, often in less salubrious environments.

Of course Tillerson could learn to mouth commitments to human rights and democracy as well as the next CEO of a major American company. But neither Trump nor a National Security Council run by General Flynn is likely to want him to do so. Even with North Korea, Trump has been far more interested in making a deal than in undoing the dictatorship–he even thought sharing a hamburger with Kim Jong un might seal a deal. So the real problem with Tillerson is again not Tillerson, but his boss, who is committed to the status quo when it comes to dictatorships.