Quite a show

At the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday, America’s intelligence chiefs testified that Moscow had indeed intervened to affect the US election in order to secure the victory of Donald Trump. The Senators on both sides of the aisle made it clear they believe this and that the President-elect is wrong to reject the findings and to denigrate the intelligence community, which he has done repeatedly.

I’d be the first to admit our spies make mistakes. One of the many responsibilities Foreign Service officers (I was one for 21 years) face is trying to iron out differences among embassies, the State Department, and the 17 intelligence institutions. I had big problems during the Bosnian war with the Defense Intelligence Agency, some of whose analysts viewed the Muslims as mainly responsible for atrocities in Bosnia and the Serbs as professional soldiers. History has not been kind to those who held this view.

The intelligence community mistake in concluding that Saddam Hussein might soon have nuclear weapons is the one Trump refers to most often. It was a big one. Without it, America might not have invaded Iraq, it might have pursued the war in Afghanistan more successfully, and the Middle East would certainly be a very different place. Then, too, there was bipartisan agreement in Congress. That is no guarantee of accuracy.

But there is a big difference today: we know what Russia is up to in the Baltics, in Ukraine, in Moldova, in Georgia, and in the Balkans. Moscow is threatening its neighbors and destabilizing any country that even begins to think about joining NATO, or even in some cases the EU. President Putin makes no secret of his propaganda, his military provocations, and his efforts to rally ethnonationalist political forces within Russia’s neighbors. It would be surprising if he weren’t interested in doing likewise in the United States. How could he have resisted the opportunity presented by a white nationalist, russophilic candidate for President?

Trump will get his classified intelligence briefing today in New York. He will then have an opportunity to eat crow or continue his stated belief that the case hasn’t been proven. I doubt he’ll change his tune. But he will be under enormous pressure from Republicans in Congress to do so. Doing so would improve his prospects for reforming the intelligence community, as otherwise neither it nor Congress will be amenable. In any event, Trump will want to make it clear that whatever happened it does not explain his great win and should not affect his commitment to improving relations with Russia.

To that he appears still thoroughly committed, without however making it clear what he expects of the Russians other than attacks on the Islamic State. Those they claim they are already undertaking. They should in any event undertake them for their own good reasons. So it is completely unclear at this stage what Trump hopes to get from giving away the store to Moscow. He seems ready to recognize the annexation of Crimea, withdraw support for the Syrian opposition, and limit NATO expansion, without any sign of a quid pro quo other than a pat on the head from Putin.

While Congressional Republicans are clearly uncomfortable with Trump’s russophilia, they are not objecting too loudly, presumably for fear of retribution. The Democrats are doing what they can to pick up the national security football and run with it. This is an upside-down world: Republicans risk becoming the party of concessions to Russia, trade protectionism, and xenophobia. Stay tuned. This still promises to be quite a show.