30 seconds closer to midnight

The US Treasury today “designated” 13 individuals and 12 companies associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) ballistic missile program and its support to terrorists, in particular Lebanese Hizbollah. Their assets in the US are blocked; Americans and US residents are generally prohibited from dealing with them.  Citizens and residents of other countries may also choose to avoid dealings with them, if only to protect their interests in the US.

This is presumably only the first, and relatively mild, step in a more hawkish American attitude towards Iran, presaged earlier this week by National Security Advisor Flynn putting Tehran “on notice.” While President Obama softened his tone and moderated action against Iran subsequent to the nuclear deal, President Trump is upping the ante, either figuring that Iran will stick with the nuclear deal pretty much no matter what or that it will violate it in whole or in part. That could provide an opportunity for Trump to ditch it altogether.

That would be a bad thing for the US: it would free Iran to pursue nuclear weapons, without much prospect of putting together the multilateral sanctions needed to pressure Tehran to stop. But Iran may well figure it is better off building up its economy now and going for nuclear weapons later. It is already closer to eight than ten years before important parts of the nuclear deal expire. A civilization as old as Iran’s knows how to be patient.

Still, I would expect some reaction. When Trump blocked all travel from Iran last week, the Iranians reciprocated by blocking all travel by Americans. I suppose they might in this case designate some American individuals and companies with whom Iranians should not do business. If Boeing were so designated, that would have a serious impact, as it has sold 80 airplanes in a deal worth over $16 billion. The Iranians also know well how to harass the US navy in the Gulf and the strait of Hormuz, not to mention how to arrest US citizens (especially those who are also Iranian, some of whom are presumably still in Iran) on espionage charges.

We can hope that the escalating spiral of tit-for-tat will end before serious arm is done to peace and security, but there is little or no guarantee of that. Trump, who is surrounded by advisers even more belligerent towards Iran, is looking for an opportunity to demonstrate more “resolve” than Obama, whom he regards as having been wimpish. There is ample support in Congress on both sides of the aisle for a more hawkish stance. Much the same is true in Iran: the Supreme Leader will not want to set a precedent of backing down from a confrontation with the new American president. The Majlis will generally support hawkishness, especially in the run-up to presidential elections due May 19, damaging President Rouhani’s prospects.

Iran and the US are now pursuing the first stages of what we conflict management types call their “Best Alternatives to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA).” The Iran nuclear deal is still in place, but it does not cover either the ballistic missile program or support to terrorism. Both of those are covered by Security Council resolutions whose applicability and interpretation are not agreed. The American BATNA for now is sanctions; the Iranian BATNA we’ll have to wait and see.

There are many good reasons why the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists late last year moved the doomsday clock 30 seconds closer to midnight.