Day: September 24, 2017
Peace picks September 25 – 29
- The Trump Administration and the Middle East: What Should America Do Next? | Monday, September 25 | 12:00 – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here | “Donald Trump promised to do a great deal more in the Middle East than his immediate predecessors, but with much less,” Hudson Institute fellows Michael Doran and Peter Rough wrote recently in Mosaic magazine. “That is, he would achieve significantly more than Barack Obama at a much smaller sacrifice of blood and treasure than was incurred under George W. Bush. This he would accomplish by defining American interests sharply and pursuing them aggressively, not to say ruthlessly. The result would be a global restoration of American credibility and, as Trump never ceased to remind voters, renewed global respect.” Nearly nine months into his term in his office, has President Trump followed through on his promises regarding Middle East policy? Doran and Rough argue that America’s big problem in the region is still Iran. In a written response to the article, Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution contends that America is not in a zero-sum contest with the Iranians. On September 25, join us for a frank discussion on the future of U.S. Middle East policy with Doran, Rough, and O’Hanlon. Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Lee Smith will moderate the panel.
- Rethinking Political Islam | Monday, September 25 | 5:30 – 8:00 pm | Brookings Institution | Register Here | The rapid succession of events of the past four years have challenged conventional wisdom on political Islam. In “Rethinking Political Islam” (Oxford University Press, 2017), Shadi Hamid and William McCants have gathered together the leading specialists in the field to examine how Islamist movements around the world are rethinking some of their basic assumptions. The contributors, who include Islamist activists and leaders themselves, describe how groups are considering key strategic questions, including gradual versus revolutionary approaches to change; the use of tactical or situational violence; attitudes toward the state; and how ideology and politics interact. On September 25, Graeme Wood of The Atlantic and Kristin Diwan of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington will join Hamid and McCants for a panel discussion on the book’s findings and conclusions. After the discussion, the panel will take audience questions. A reception and book signing will follow. Attendees may purchase “Rethinking Political Islam” at an exclusive 10 percent discount, with the option of pre-ordering a signed copy online
- Confronting the Next Wave of Violent Extremism | Wednesday, September 27 | 9:00 am – 4:30 pm | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here | Join the U.S. Institute of Peace and the RESOLVE Network of global experts on violent extremism for the consortium’s annual forum on Wednesday, September 27, to discuss issues such as the risks in hotspots across Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe.The forum will feature preeminent international scholars and experts from across the network’s 20-plus partner organizations around the world. In addition to offering opportunities to connect with leading thinkers, practitioners and policymakers involved in developing responses to violent extremism, the day of panels and roundtable discussions will highlight findings from a year-long study on the rise of violent extremism in Bangladesh and preview upcoming research on the politics of religion in the Lake Chad Basin region. Panelists will address questions including what do we know about how and when terrorists decide to enter and exit violence, and how do the politics of religion, migration, and identity factor into efforts to counter violent extremism.
- Tunisia’s Road to Reform | Thursday, September 28 | 12:00 pm | Atlantic Council | Register Here | Please join the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East for a panel discussion on the new Tunisian government and prime minister shuffle. As part of a four-year IMF approved loan, the new government and cabinet must enact fiscal reforms to continue receiving a $2.9 billion loan aimed at strengthening job creation and economic growth. Will the so-called “war government” geared towards reform succeed in this effort? Is enough being done to address corruption and strengthen good governance? What are the major challenges and obstacles facing the Tunisian government in its effort to bring the country back to economic and political stability? The panel will address these and other concerns related to Tunisia’s ongoing transition. Panelists include Oussama Romdhani of the Arab Weekly, independent journalist Fadil Aliriza, and Sarah Yerkes of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace. The event will be introduced by Ambassador Frederic C. Hof of the Atlantic Council and moderated by Karim Mezran of the Atlantic Council.
- Iran’s Land Bridge: Countering a Growing Influence in the Middle East | Friday, September 29 | 12:00 – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here | The threat of an Iranian land bridge through Iraq and Syria—measured both in established influence and a physical presence—has become a reality. Iran’s goal for regional hegemony, a strategic plan more than three decades in the making, has come to fruition. With such a route in place, Iran can increase logistical and operational support to Lebanese Hezbollah and other IRGC-directed proxies. Is it possible to disrupt this route, and can it be done without provoking further conflict? On September 29, Hudson Institute will host a discussion assessing these and other elements of Iran’s strategic posture in the region. Hudson fellows Michael Pregent, Hillel Fradkin, and Lee Smith will join Ilan Berman of the American Foreign Policy Council to discuss the changing situation in the Middle East and the appropriate U.S. policy response.
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Trump needs an Iran policy
In the second of two panels organized by the Atlantic Council on Thursday, September 14, Mara Karlin of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Kenneth Pollack of the American Enterprise Institute, and Ambassador Susan Ziadeh were joined by moderator David Sanger of the New York Times to discuss the report “US Strategy Options for Iran’s Regional Challenge.” The panelists summarized points from the publication, offered analysis on Iran’s role in the Middle East and the US administration’s current strategy to counter its perceived threat, and provided Pollack, who co-authored the report with the Middle East Institute’s Bilal Saab, with feedback.
According to Karlin, Iran is currently seeing success on a number of fronts. It has been involved in the fight against ISIS primarily through its militias in Iraq, putting Iran at the forefront of the victory there. Bashar Al-Assad and Hezbollah’s successes in Syria, both of whom Iran has supported in the fight against opposition forces, also further Iran’s influence and power in the region. The forces with the most means to challenge Iran, the countries of the GCC, have had their power undermined by the current Qatar crisis, which has suggested that the GCC countries are unable to effectively cooperate to combat Iran’s threat in the region.
Iran’s power comes from a number of sources, which makes it important to view the Middle East holistically. The Trump administration considers Iran itself as the only problem in the region, consequently overlooking other actors and challenges. Pollack explained that the administration, for example, has for the most part ignored the Syria conflict. President Trump has sought to undermine the nuclear deal with Iran (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JCPOA) and has been meeting with European leaders, the majority of whom are supportive of the JCPOA as it stands, in an effort to convince them of the need to renegotiate the deal, as their support would be needed.
By failing to establish a presence in different countries and conflicts, the US has allowed Iran to fill the space and establish itself as a major player in the region. Pollack went on to remind that, while a problem from an American perspective, Iran’s power is not the biggest problem in the region, and that if the US does not address other, more pressing issues, it may find itself in a situation where it will regret not establishing such influence. Karlin agreed, emphasizing that Iran is not in actuality an “existential threat” to the US, as the administration believes.
In beginning to provide practical policy recommendations, the panelists emphasized the importance of giving the GCC countries a role, with Karlin describing them as an “anchor,” and Ziadeh pointing out their willingness to cooperate with the US. In fact, she explained, even when GCC countries opposed the Obama administration’s policies in the region, they still expected the US to engage with them and sought to further ties, particularly with regards to the military. As a result of the US focus on Iran and the nuclear deal, elaborated Karlin, GCC countries have been under the impression that the US is not willing to pay attention to their concerns, which may cost the US advantageous partnerships in the region.
Many of the recommendations given by the panelists and the report included adopting a more holistic perspective on the Middle East. Pollack outlined the importance of working with regional allies, as well as ensuring that US actions preserve the JCPOA. Ziadeh agreed, reiterating that the US should adopt a strong approach while ensuring that it does not jeopardize the JCPOA.
Karlin restated some recommendations made by the report. One of these strategies is “minimalist containment,” defined in the report as continuing current policies, such as maintaining “bare minimum” US military presence in the region and preserving the JCPOA. Another, “sandbagging,” is defined as the prevention of Iranian victories in the region, which would include supporting the Syrian opposition. Finally, Karlin also mentioned “pushback,” a strategy that seeks to weaken and remove Iran from states where it currently holds influence.
The panel ended with additional suggestions and thoughts from panelists and the audience on the recommendations included in the report. US relations and approaches to Iran are complex, and finding the proper strategy will need careful deliberation and assessment, a process that the Trump administration would be wise to begin soon.
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