Assad will fight to the last Iranian

I did this interview last week for Nozhan Etezadosaltaneh of the Islamic Republic’s Tehran daily Iran. I was informed today that it has been published. I’ll appreciate it if anyone can let me know whether it has been fully and accurately translated into Farsi: 

1. As a experienced Counselor who knows about the functioning of international institutions, do you think the UN can help to end the Syria crisis ? Some people say institutions like UN don’t have executive power and can not take positive steps toward peace in conflict regions. What is your opinion about the view?

A: The UN is already playing important roles: it provides a great deal of humanitarian assistance in Syria and to refugees in neighboring countries, it has a commission that has reported extensively on human rights violations in Syria, it has established an international, impartial and independent mechanism to assist in investigating and prosecuting international crimes committed in Syria, and it also sponsors the Geneva talks on political transition. Behind the scenes it has played a role in some particular ceasefires and other agreements that have saved lives. Of course it lacks executive power to determine the outcome of the war, but is doing things that lessen the war’s impact, make it possible to hold parties accountable for their wartime behavior, and may lead to an end to the fighting. Those aren’t bad things, they just aren’t all I might hope for.

2. After the end of ISIS in Raqqa, which actor can take control of the city and restore order and public services? Iran and Russia along with the Syrian government, the Kurdish forces or the Syrian armed opposition and their Western allies?

A: My impression is that initial control of Raqqa lies with the Kurdish-led but partly Arab-manned Syrian Democratic Forces, with support from the Western coalition. In the east, Iran and Russia have focused on Deir Azour.

3. Do you think the American troops will enter Syria directly after ISIS defeat in the country?

A: American troops have been in Syria for months fighting ISIS. I don’t know if they will stay. The Trump Administration might prefer that they withdraw, but that will leave US allies open to attacks from both the regime coalition (including Russia and Iran) as well as Turkey, which regards the Kurds who fought against ISIS under US protection as terrorists because they are connected to the PKK inside Turkey. If the Americans stay, it will be to ensure ISIS does not return, to restrain the Kurds, protect Arabs who have fought ISIS, and to prevent attacks from either Turkey or the regime coalition.

4. What will be the consequences of ISIS defeat for the neighboring countries in the region in your opinion? Do you think we should expect more confrontations and problems or it could help to bring stability and peace in the region?

A: I am not seeing an end to instability yet. With Assad still in power, I expect an insurgency to  continue against his dictatorship, by both relatively moderate and extremist forces. Assad will not be happy with US troops in the east and Turkish troops in northern Syria and Idlib, or relatively moderate rebels in the south. Turkey, Iran and Russia, which have collaborated in recent months, may have a falling out, as their visions of a future Syria may well conflict.

4. Analysis shows that for example around six thousand Tunisian joined to ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Do you think the jihadists will return to their countries and cause trouble for their countries?

A: Trouble from jihadis returning to their home countries is certainly to be expected. Local grievances in those countries played an important role in recruitment. Now that they are trained and deadly, their return could generate big problems.

5. Do you think that ISIS defeat in Syria will be an opportunity for re-rise of Al-Qaeda in the country and the region?

A: Al Qaeda has played a savvier game in Syria and elsewhere by embedding itself with local forces, whereas ISIS sought a monopoly on power and was content to be led and partly manned by people who were not native to the country they were fighting in. But I also think a lot of people are fed up with the jihadis and will get rid of them if empowered to do. That is certainly true in parts of Idlib.

6. Some analysts believe that the Arab countries of the region especially Saudi Arabia have directly and indirectly contributed to ISIS. Do you agree with the opinion? What will the effect of ISIS failure in Syria on Saudi Arabia?

A: Wahhabi ideology has had a role in generating ISIS, but it has been clear for some time now that ISIS and Al Qaeda are enemies of the Saudi monarchy and Saudi Arabia does not support them through official channels. There may be Saudi private individuals who do however, including of course Osama bin Laden. This, too, the Saudis have tried to stop.

7. Saudi Arabia consistently criticized Obama’s policy toward the Syria crisis and and accused Obama of passivity and strengthening Hizbollah and Iran in the region. What do you think about current Saudi Arabia approach about US policy on Syria ? do you think Trump is able to satisfy the Saudis in this regard ? What will be the impact of the recent US and Saudi Arabia getting closer to each other on the future of Syria?

A: The Saudis haven’t shown a lot of interest in Syria lately. Trump has doubled down on what Obama started–the drone war plus cooperation with the Kurds and their Arab allies against ISIS–but I haven’t heard a lot of applause from Riyadh, which is far more focused for now on Yemen. That said, the Saudis clearly prefer Trump to Obama, because they think he will do more to counter Iranian influence in the region, even if not in Syria.

8. Which one will be winner in a possible conflict in Syria in your opinion? Iran or US?

Both will win the war they are fighting: the US will win its war against ISIS; Iran will win its war to keep Assad in power, at least for now. Tehran may also gain its desired land bridge through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, as well as a permanent presence for Hizbollah in Syria. Washington has, oddly, not yet begun to counter those efforts in a serious and concerted way.

9. What do you think about Israel policy after ISIS defeat in Syria? It seems that ISIS presence in Syria to have benefited Israel. What do you think about the view? Do you think Israel will get into the phase of military operation in Syria fearing that Hizbollah will be closer to Golan and the borders of that country? Will ISIS failure be a threat for Israel?

A: I don’t think the Israelis think they benefited from ISIS in Syria. They do not want ISIS on the border. Nor do they want Hizbollah on their border. Many have thought they would prefer Assad, who has done nothing against Israel despite a lot of talk. Hizbollah and ISIS are both threats to Israel, and I expect it to take what measures it needs to protect itself. Assad has shown little will or ability to respond effectively.

10. Recently, The King of Saudi Arabia traveled to Russia. Some believe that in exchange for economic privileges he urged Russia to persuade Iran to withdraw from Syria and limit its role in the country. Do you think he has succeeded in convincing Putin on the matter?

A: I think the Russians already want to withdraw some of their forces from Syria, no matter what the Saudis say. Syria has cost Moscow quite a bit in money and lives. I don’t expect Iran to reduce its influence (presence is a different matter), so long as Assad is in power. He is now essentially an Iranian puppet.

11. What will Russia program for Syria after the ISIS defeat in your opinion? How long will Russia be able to move between the Shiite and Sunni poles? Don’t you think Putin finally will have  to choose one side? Do you think Russia will leave Tehran and cooperate with Saudi Arabia and Sunni countries or will continue to cooperate with Iran on the Syria issue?

A: Russia has already chosen the Shiite side, though it maintains Sunni links even inside Syria. So long as Iran is not hostile to Russia’s military presence in Syria, I think Moscow will continue to cooperate with Tehran.

12. Do you think the situation of Syria without ISIS will be better for all of the region or this is only beginning a new phase of war among the main international and regional actors? Are you optimistic about the future of Syria after ISIS and the consequences?

A: I don’t see that any of the underlying causes of war have been resolved, so I expect war to continue in one form or another, at least until the international powers–Russia, Iran, Turkey and the US–come to some sort of modus vivendi. Syria lacks the resources required to reconstruct its battered cities, infrastructure, and countryside. Damascus has lost control of much of its already declining oil and gas production. Russia and Iran are not willing to provide the $200 billion or more required. Nor will the West do so. Assad wants to restore his dictatorship and is unwilling to see a political transition to a more inclusive form of government.

13. Are you optimistic about the future of Syria after the ISIS defeat?

A: No, I am not optimistic about Syria. Let’s be clear: Assad has not been fighting ISIS, and for the most part ISIS hasn’t been fighting Assad. The main target of the Syrian/Iranian/Russian coalition has been the moderate Syrian opposition, which was fighting Assad. It is the Western-led coalition that has fought ISIS to defeat, because ISIS had targeted the West and its friends.

14. You served many years in US Department of State as special envoy for peacemaking in conflict zones in the world. Among most important conflict zones for example Bosnia, Afghanistan and Sudan which country had similar situation of current Syria? What is your recommendation to US and EU for the first step in helping to bring peace to Syria?

A: I don’t think the US and the EU are in a position to help bring peace to Syria, but the first step they wanted is clear: political transition to an inclusive governing body with full executive powers. That is what Assad, Iran and Russia have fought so hard against (and won), at enormous cost to the Syrian people.

Now it is up to Damascus, Tehran and Moscow to bring peace to Syria, including paying for reconstruction. They broke it, they bought it. The Americans and Europeans–who have paid an enormous price in humanitarian relief for refugees and displaced people chased from their homes by Damascus, Tehran and Moscow–will need to figure out how to protect their interests in preventing a resurgence of ISIS, a permanent split in the NATO alliance (with Turkey going its own way), and returning at least some of the refugees to areas in side Syria.

15. For the end, you have many years experience in facilitating dialogue. Do you think dialogue between Syrian opposition and the Syrian Government after ISIS defeat will be possible while even we see differences between the various factions in Syrian opposition? Do you think there is any opportunity for compromise between the parties of conflict in post – ISIS era after many years bloody war ?

A: The fragmentation of the Syrian opposition is a problem, but not an insurmountable one. On vital issues like political transition, the non-extremist portion of the opposition has spoken clearly with one voice. They of course also struggle among themselves for predominance, but so too do factions in Tehran and Washington.

There has always been a possibility of compromise, but Assad saw no reason to do it. He had the support he felt he needed to win. The Syrian opposition is defeated on the battlefield. His problem is that he has not won, but as Ibrahim al Assil put it in the Washington Post, he has merely prevented anyone else from winning. The political struggle will go on, as will the military fight at a lower level. Assad will fight the moderate opposition to the last Iranian and Russian available to help him.