Trump will fail

I’ve been in Israel and Palestine for the past two weeks, contrary to the State Department’s unequivocal guidance. It would be foolish of me to suggest that I know what people here think. Khalil Shikaki’s polling will serve you much better. But personal contact and conversation also have their virtue.

One Israeli early in my time here suggested that he knew why the conflict has lasted so long and proved so intractable. While many here refer pejoratively to the “peace industry” that grew up around and after the Oslo accords, there is also now a war industry: politicians so attached to derogatory images of the other side that they don’t believe they can survive without it. Yitzhak Rabin, assassinated by an ultra-nationalist supporter of settlements in the West Bank in 1995, was the last Prime Minister to have both the political clout and the confidence in the peace process to deliver.

This rings true to me. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas need each other for political survival: Netanyahu’s over the top positions provide Abu Mazen with what he needs to remind Palestinians, many of whom are not fond of the PA, that the Israeli state does not treat them fairly. When Netanyahu says Jerusalem has been the capital of the Jews for 3000 years, the more than 35% of the population that is Arab runs (figuratively) to embrace the PA. When Abbas says he intends to end security cooperation with Israel, many Jews embrace Netanyahu’s hard line.

Netanyahu is also fond of saying he has no negotiating partner. The Palestinians feel the same way. Their view is that Israel wants to hang on to the West Bank and East Jerusalem, allowing the Palestinians self-governance but preventing them from joining the Palestinian citizens of Israel (20% or so of the population) in having the right to vote. Netanyahu confirmed that is his one-state plan at Davos yesterday. This from the Palestinian perspective is no better than apartheid, since it denies Arabs equal political rights within a single state.

President Trump signaled that he supports this idea when he tried to take Jerusalem off the table by American support for Israeli sovereignty over the entire city. He thought this would facilitate negotiations, which he described as stuck on Jerusalem. That is false. Jerusalem has never really been on the negotiating agenda as it was always left for last of the so-called “final status” issues. Even so, the various negotiations since Oslo have made significant progress on defining shared solutions for the city, as Israeli scholar Lior Lehrs points out. As usual, Trump upset the apple cart, but to no apparent purpose, while also proposing the barbaric idea of cutting humanitarian assistance for refugees.

The result is that people here are gloomy about the prospects, but most are also enjoying the relative peace and stability of the past few years. Many Jews like the separation wall that keeps the Palestinians separate, though tens of thousands cross it daily both legally and illegally to work in Israel. Many Palestinians are resentful of Israeli restrictions on their freedom of movement, of which the wall is but one example: West Bankers need special permission to visit Jerusalem and some even need permission to leave Ramallah. Palestinians regard the West Bank and Gaza as “occupied” and many believe violence in resisting occupation is justified.

But few in the West Bank take up arms, which are not generally available, while virtually all Israelis have weapons and its security forces have excellent intelligence capabilities. Instead, the Palestinians are pursuing non-violent means: international acceptance of the Palestinian state as well as a campaign for boycott, disinvestment and sanctions (BDS) against Israel and the West Bank settlements. Israel finds that much harder to respond to than terrorist acts, and Jews worldwide are uncomfortable to the point of complaining about “de-legitimization” of Israel.

Neither side at this point has the kind of leadership or strategy that could lead to a negotiated peace. Netanyahu regards the current situation as better than anything he can get at the negotiating table. It allows him to continue expanding settlements on the West Bank, to the glee of his right-wing coalition partners, and to pursue an anti-Iran coalition with Sunni Arab states. Abbas is serving the ninth year of a four-year term, validated only by a vote of the Palestine Liberation Organization’s Central Council. His relatively moderate strategy may make Jews uncomfortable, but it hasn’t raise the costs to Netanyahu significantly. The US, whose proper role in the negotiations is to deliver its ally Israel to an otherwise unsatisfactory outcome, has chosen instead to align itself with Trump.

I do think peace is possible, despite the enormous power asymmetry. But not now. Until the US, PA and Israel have new leaders committed to a negotiated outcome, all three will muddle through, with the Israelis changing the reality on the ground and the Palestinians trying to undermine Israel’s international legitimacy while increasing their own. Trump will fail to deliver the deal of the century, as he has at everything but enriching himself and gaining enormous notoriety.

PS: For a marginally more optimistic view, see Chatham House’s recent commentary.