peacefare.net

The missing ingredient

Syrian President Assad, thumbing his nose at the US, launched another major chemical attack Saturday, this time against Douma on the outskirts of Damascus, a year and a couple of days after the deadly Khan Shaykhun sarin attack last year. Assad has been using chlorine frequently over the past year. It is not yet clear which chemicals were used in Douma, but dozens died.

This attack attracted President Trump’s attention. First he blamed President Obama for not holding to his red line (actually he said for not crossing the red line, but the literate know he meant the opposite). Then he skipped golf after threatening that Assad would pay a BIG PRICE and blaming in part Vladimir Putin, the first time anyone can remember his criticizing Russia’s president by name.

Last year Trump launched 59 cruise missiles against the base from which the Khan Shaykhun sarin gas attack was launched. There was no serious or lasting impact, except for those unlucky enough to be at the base. It got back to operation quickly and chlorine, but not sarin, attacks continued.

Both Russia and Syria have denied Syria used chemicals on this recent occasion. Moscow issued a stern warning of “gravest consequences” if Syria is attacked. That presumably means US military intervention could precipitate Russian escalation. The Americans have already killed dozens if not hundreds of Russian mercenaries who attempted in February to cross the Euphrates to capture oil and gas fields American allies now control in eastern Syria. Moscow downplayed that incident. This time it is likely to retaliate with escalation of its own. Where that cycle would end is dreadful to contemplate.

I suppose the Americans will be tempted. But even if they double or triple the number of cruise missiles, it won’t make much difference. What was lacking last time around, and is likely to be lacking this time as well, is a viable diplomatic strategy for bringing the Syrian war to an end. Using military force without a political game plan is senseless.

The missing ingredient here is not force. It is diplomacy. The Americans should desist from another one-off with cruise missiles unless they have a serious diplomatic initiative in mind that would benefit from it. Assad is only going to yield at this point if the military balance is significantly altered and he fears he may be unable to hold on to power. It is difficult to imagine how the Americans could make that happen, though depriving Assad of his air force might make a difference.

The first step is to demonstrate unequivocally that the attack originated from Assad-friendly forces. That is not as difficult as it sounds, because only those forces fly airplanes. It is in any event not credible that the Syrian opposition–even its most extreme factions–use chemical weapons only against their own and never against Assad’s forces or their Iranian and Russian supporters. Once responsibility for this particular attack is established for all to see and hear, the Americans need to line up their allies and friends for a sustained campaign, with a political game plan Assad’s only way out.

If we are not willing to do that–and I doubt we are–maybe we had best do nothing beyond the usual condemnation. If we are missing the key ingredient to the secret sauce, force isn’t going to work.