Day: May 7, 2018
Peace picks, May 7 – May 13
- War by Other Means: Russian Disinformation Undermining Democracy, Spurring Conflict | Monday, May 7 | 2:00pm – 3:00pm | U.S. Institute for Peace | Register here |
Russia’s concerted disinformation campaign against the West is sowing confusion and distrust and undermining democratic institutions from Ukraine to the United States. Anne Applebaum—a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, thought leader and commentator on politics and foreign policy—and U.S. Institute of Peace Executive Vice President William Taylor will discuss the challenges to the West from Russian aggression and the weapons of disinformation and disruption, and what the United States and its allies need to do to respond. Join USIP for an engaging and timely discussion about Russia’s influence on democratic processes in both Ukraine and the United States. Featuring Anne Applebaum (Washington Post columnist, Pulitzer-Prize winning author and Professor of Practice, Institute of Global Affairs, London School of Economics) and William Taylor (Executive Vice President, USIP).
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- The Future of War and Challenges for Humanitarians – Featuring the President of the ICRC | Monday, May 7 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm | Wilson Center | Register here |
Will tomorrow’s wars be fought on the same terms as today’s? How will humanitarians need to adapt? Digitalization, artificial intelligence, and big data are transforming our world – and new technologies, such as autonomous weapons and the tools of cyber warfare, are new cause for humanitarian concern. Featuring Peter Maurer (President, International Committee of the Red Cross), Ambassador Martin Dahinden (Ambassador of Switzerland to the United States), Amb. Andreas Kellerhals (Director, Europa Institute, University of Zurich), and Robert S. Litwak (Senior Vice President and Director of International Security Studies, Wilson Center), as moderator. With introductory remarks by Jane Harman (Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center).
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- Governance and Security in North Africa and the Sahel | Tuesday, May 8 | 9:00am – 3:30 pm | Carnegie Endowment | Register here |
This conference brings together leading scholars, policy analysts, and practitioners from around the world to address the changing political, socioeconomic, and security dynamics within the Maghreb-Sahel region. Panelists will examine the expanding horizons of insecurity and the challenges of uneven development, political contestation, and socio-religious change. They will also discuss the wider implications of the trends for development, peace, and security in both regions.
Panel 1: Contestation and Adaptation in the Maghreb (9:00am – 10:30am) featuring Anouar Boukhars (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Azzedine Layachi (St. John’s University), Sarah Yerkes (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), and Michele Dunne (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as moderator.
Panel 2: The Challenges of Governance and Security in the Sahel (10:45am – 12:15pm) featuring Boubacar N’Diaye (Wooster College), Ibrahim Yahya Ibrahim (University of Florida), Ousseina Alidou (Rutgers University), Azeez Olaniyan (Ekiti State University, Nigeria), and Cyril Obi (African Peacebuilding Network, Social Science Research Council) as moderator.
Panel 3: Cross-Border Security Challenges (12:45pm – 2:00pm) featuring Jacques Roussellier (American Military University, South Africa), Mohamed Gain (Ibn Tofail University, Morocco), Rawia Tawfik (Cairo University), and Anouar Boukhars (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as moderator.
Panel 4: Libya’s Impact on Sahel-Maghreb Security (2:15pm – 3:30pm) featuring Lydia Sizer (Independent Consultant), Karim Mezran (Atlantic Council), Manal Taha (USIP), and Frederic Wehrey (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as moderator.
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- The Rise of China’s Private Security Companies | Tuesday, May 8| 10:00am –11:30am | Carnegie Endowment | Register here |
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative includes many state-owned enterprises that are operating in foreign countries for the first time and face unprecedented security issues. Instead of relying on the People’s Liberation Army or People’s Armed Police, hundreds of newly formed private security companies (PSCs) have been created to provide security services for these new ventures. Aside from the competence of these PSCs, questions remain regarding their effectiveness as a stand-in for the Chinese military and ability to work in harmony with China’s state interests. Featuring Alessandro Arduino (Co-Director, Security and Crisis Management Program, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences) and Michael D. Swaine (Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
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- Trump and the JCPOA: It’s the End of the World As We Know It? | Wednesday, May 9 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm | Hudson Institute | Register here |
The Trump Administration is expected to announce plans later this month for U.S. participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran Deal. With John Bolton directing the National Security Council, Mike Pompeo confirmed as the new Secretary of State, and Secretary James Mattis at the helm of the Defense Department, the President’s foreign policy team is in place. But while all the President’s men have successfully established their ability to influence the administration’s policy, their recommendations for U.S. participation in the JCPOA have been contradictory to date. Secretary Mattis has signaled that he supports the U.S. remaining in the Iran Deal, while Secretary Pompeo and Bolton seem to support withdrawal. Panelists include Michael Doran (Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute), Michael Pregent (Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute), Richard Goldberg (Senior Advisor, Foundation for Defense of Democracies), and Behnam Ben Taleblu (Research Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies).
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- Forty Years of U.S.-China Relations | Friday, May 11 | 8:30pm – 1:30pm | CSIS | Register here |
The United States and China are approaching the 40th anniversary of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations. To commemorate this historic milestone, CSIS is hosting a half-day event on the morning of May 11, 2018, to discuss the twists and turns in the relationship over the last four decades and the challenges that lay ahead. The conference will feature key policy figures and experts from both the United States and China. It will begin with a keynote address from a current member of Congress, then have two star-studded panels discussing “The First 40 Years” and “The Next 40 Years,” and then wrap up with a luncheon armchair discussion.
Panel 1: The First Forty (9:25 am – 10:40 am) featuring Mr. James Mann (Scholar-in-Residence, Johns Hopkins SAIS), Amb. Charlene Barshefsky (Partner, WilmerHale), Dr. Suisheng (Sam) Zhao (Director, Center for China-U.S. Cooperation, University of Denver), Dr. Wang (Henry) Huiyao (President, Center for China and Globalization) and Dr. Scott Kennedy (Deputy Director, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS) as moderator.
Panel 2: The Next Forty (10:50am – 12:00pm) featuring Mr. Daniel H. Rosen (Partner, The Rhodium Group), Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro (Assistant Professor, Georgetown University), Dr. Chen Dongxiao (President, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies), Mr. Wang Wen (Executive Dean, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China), and Bonnie S. Glaser (Senior Adviser for Asia & Director, China Power Project, CSIS) as moderator.
Luncheon & Armchair Discussion: US-China Relations at a Crossroad (12:00pm – 1:30pm) featuring Sec. William S. Cohen (Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, The Cohen Group), Amb. Cui Tiankai (Chinese Ambassador to the United States), and Mr. Christopher K. Johnson (Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS) as moderator.
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The faster the better
The Trump Administration is well into the process of self-destruction. The evidence:
- It can’t decide whether the President himself paid hush money to a porn star or his enforcer/fixer did it without his knowledge.
- The Trump real estate empire disposed of large quantities of cash of uncertain origin in the decade prior to the 2016 election.
- Efforts to negotiate more favorable trade deals with China, Canada and Mexico are bellying up.
- Economic and job growth are slowing and the stock market has stalled.
- Trump has created a lose-lose situation for himself on the Iran nuclear deal and is headed in that direction with North Korea.
Any one of these items would be devastating to most American administrations, but Trump has managed to lower the bar for presidential performance so dramatically it hardly matters at this point.
With regard to items 1 and 2, I’m confident the Special Counsel will find the answers. He has the computers, cell phones and other records of Trump’s personal lawyer. He no doubt also has ample financial records for the Trump enterprises. Let’s wait for his investigation to discover the truth, which I doubt will be pretty.
Trump’s aggressive approach to trade is producing an equally aggressive reaction. The Chinese booted his proposals last week. Mexico and Canada are stiffening their resistance. Trump could end up imposing tariffs that will spark retaliation against American food and other exports, shredding the rural and manufacturing support that was vital to his election. Meanwhile, the trade deficit is up since his election, but no one notices because he makes so much noise.
The same is true for the economy more generally. While the press for some reason continues to laud economic and job growth figures that are no better (and recently worse) than the Obama performance they categorized as “lackluster,” the business cycle is aging and Trump’s initiatives are all inflationary. His tariffs, tax cuts, and overblown budget deficit are generating inflation and will soon cause a rise in interest rates, precipitating a slowdown and likely a recession. This could happen well before the 2020 election, if not before this year’s Congressional contests.
On the nuclear deal with Iran, Trump will either stay in despite his often expressed preference or get out, causing either a major rift with Europe or triggering an Iranian push to get nuclear weapons. That’s a lose-lose. Likewise with North Korea: either he buys what Kim Jong-un is selling, which won’t be the US goal of complete, irreversible or verifiable denuclearization, or he walks away without a Plan B. That too is a lose-lose.
You can’t sell flim flam forever. Sooner or later it all catches with you. That’s what’s happening. The faster the better.
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More on Bosnia’s election law
Slaven Kovačević writes:
Still another meeting about possible changes of the Election Law of Bosnia and Herzegovina has ended without agreement, which some will consider bad. I think this is the best solution at the moment, because it is not true that without agreement implementation of the future electoral results will be impossible.
That claim is based on the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) incorrect interpretation of the Constitutional Court’s Ljubić decision. The intention is to create pressure for changes to the BiH Election Law that advantage the HDZ, diminishing the basic human rights of a significant number of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina who live in environments beyond the HDZ’s direct political control.
In addition, the HDZ demands that the Election Law be amended to include election of members of the BiH Presidency, whereas the Constitutional Court of BiH rejected that part of the Ljubić appeal. The HDZ also abuses the Venice Commission, which at the end of its opinion made it clear that the current system for choosing members of the Federation House of Peoples is in line with the European electoral principles and standards.
The HDZ arguments are political in nature and not legal. The basic question is this: is the Federation formed from cantons or peoples, as HDZ claims? Under the Washington Agreement, the Federation of BiH is composed of federal units, later established in the Constitution as cantons. Here is an extract from the original Washington Agreement:
Bosniacs and Croats, as constituent peoples (along with others) and citizens of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the exercise of their sovereign rights, transform the internal structure of the territories with a majority of Bosniac and Croat population in the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina into a Federation, which is composed of federal units with equal rights and responsibilities.
The choice of delegates to the House of Peoples is based on the implementation of Annex VII of the Dayton Peace Agreement (return of all expelled citizens to their pre-war homes). As long as this process is not completed, the 1991 census is to be applied, in order to avoid legalizing the results of genocide and ethnic cleansing. This is a constitutional provision that cannot be put out of force unless someone, like the High Representative (HR) or a competent state body, declares the return of expelled citizens ended. As this has not happened, this current legal norm remains in force. The current system under the FBiH Constitution is in line with the judgments of the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. The BiH Constitutional Court cannot contradict the European Court.
All citizens of the Federation of BiH must fully enjoy their civil and political rights, more precisely to elect and be elected to all legislative organs. The HDZ wants a consociational democracy, but one not based on the proportion of Croats throughout the country but rather one based only on four cantons that the HDZ controls. The HDZ’s efforts to change the BiH Election Law were motivated by their wish to legally mark part of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territory as a “third entity.” Croatia and Russia support these efforts, in contradiction to the Dayton Peace Agreement, jeopardizing the entire political system.
The idea of blocking implementation of the election results is political, not legal. The earlier, 2011 HDZ effort to block implementation of electoral results led to the intervention of the High Representative. Annex 10 of the Framework Dayton Peace Agreement would still require the High Representative to intervene again to secure fair and democratic elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which means that he would then be obliged to intervene again.
The elections last until the moment of implementation of the electoral results, which are an integral part of the electoral process. It is important to relieve the public of unnecessary fears about changes to the Election Law of BiH and devote efforts instead to announcing, holding and implementing elections. This would enable other, more important issues to be discussed, such as the motives of tens of thousands of young citizens of Bosnia Herzegovina who leave Bosnia every year and seek for their better life abroad.
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