The faster the better
The Trump Administration is well into the process of self-destruction. The evidence:
- It can’t decide whether the President himself paid hush money to a porn star or his enforcer/fixer did it without his knowledge.
- The Trump real estate empire disposed of large quantities of cash of uncertain origin in the decade prior to the 2016 election.
- Efforts to negotiate more favorable trade deals with China, Canada and Mexico are bellying up.
- Economic and job growth are slowing and the stock market has stalled.
- Trump has created a lose-lose situation for himself on the Iran nuclear deal and is headed in that direction with North Korea.
Any one of these items would be devastating to most American administrations, but Trump has managed to lower the bar for presidential performance so dramatically it hardly matters at this point.
With regard to items 1 and 2, I’m confident the Special Counsel will find the answers. He has the computers, cell phones and other records of Trump’s personal lawyer. He no doubt also has ample financial records for the Trump enterprises. Let’s wait for his investigation to discover the truth, which I doubt will be pretty.
Trump’s aggressive approach to trade is producing an equally aggressive reaction. The Chinese booted his proposals last week. Mexico and Canada are stiffening their resistance. Trump could end up imposing tariffs that will spark retaliation against American food and other exports, shredding the rural and manufacturing support that was vital to his election. Meanwhile, the trade deficit is up since his election, but no one notices because he makes so much noise.
The same is true for the economy more generally. While the press for some reason continues to laud economic and job growth figures that are no better (and recently worse) than the Obama performance they categorized as “lackluster,” the business cycle is aging and Trump’s initiatives are all inflationary. His tariffs, tax cuts, and overblown budget deficit are generating inflation and will soon cause a rise in interest rates, precipitating a slowdown and likely a recession. This could happen well before the 2020 election, if not before this year’s Congressional contests.
On the nuclear deal with Iran, Trump will either stay in despite his often expressed preference or get out, causing either a major rift with Europe or triggering an Iranian push to get nuclear weapons. That’s a lose-lose. Likewise with North Korea: either he buys what Kim Jong-un is selling, which won’t be the US goal of complete, irreversible or verifiable denuclearization, or he walks away without a Plan B. That too is a lose-lose.
You can’t sell flim flam forever. Sooner or later it all catches with you. That’s what’s happening. The faster the better.
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