Winds of change in Baghdad?
Tomorrow, Iraq will hold its first national elections since the war with ISIS in 2014.
More than a return to normalcy, tomorrow’s elections mark a potential turning point for Iraqi democracy. In a region where elections typically hold few surprises, tomorrow’s elections may show the winds of change blowing for traditional politics in Baghdad. Some questions to consider as results come in:
- Will Abadi win a majority?
With the Dawa Party split and no clear allies at his side, Haider al-Abadi’s future as Prime Minster is in doubt without a strong showing by his Victory Alliance at the ballot box. While an electoral win doesn’t necessarily mean taking the premiership (as happened to Ayad Allawi in 2010), the knives will be out for Abadi without a clear victory. - Will Maliki be eclipsed by Ameri?
Even if Abadi’s coalition wins a plurality as polling predicts, there is a second contest for leadership in Shiite politics. Nouri al-Maliki, once “Saddam of the Shiites,” has seen his position sharply decline since his ouster in 2014. Maliki is attempting his comeback at the head of a diminished State of Law Coalition, but his rise is challenged by the entry of militia leader Hadi al-Ameri into politics, who is contesting the position as Iran’s most stringent ally in Iraq. While the Ameri and his alliance of Shiite militias are certain to be a force to be reckoned with no matter the results, a poor showing for Maliki would complete his fall into irrelevance. - Will Hakim and Sadr’s rebranding pay dividends?
One of the more surprising developments in Iraqi politics has been attempts by Shiite leaders to break away from the sectarian narrative toward a reformist angle – a trend evident in ISCI head Ammar al-Hakim abandoning his former party (Iran’s old favorite) and Moqtada al-Sadr’s shock alliance with the (questionably relevant) Iraqi Communist Party. Expect this populist trend to continue if Hakim and Sadr prove it can sway voters. - Is this the debut of a Kurdish opposition?
The disastrous results of last year’s independence referendum, adding to dissatisfaction with runaway corruption in the Kurdistan Regional Government, have greatly damaged the reputation of Iraq’s top Kurdish parties. Tomorrow’s parliamentary elections feature the first test for the newly-formed Nishtiman (Homeland) List, a coalition of Kurdish parties seeking to challenge the traditional KDP-PUK duopoly in regional elections this September. Whether or not Nishtiman emerges with more seats over their rivals, a good performance might enable Baghdad to shut out the traditional Kurdish powers in forming a government. - Is the PUK done for?
Compounding their existing problems, the PUK is weakened by a lingering succession crisis in the wake of Jalal Talabani’s death last October, which led to PUK majordomo Barham Salih’s defection to form his own party. More so than the KDP, the PUK has been on a decline since 2014 – if their voters don’t show up tomorrow the PUK’s influence in Baghdad may be at an end. - Will small parties earn enough to gain influence?
With no existing coalition predicted to win an absolute majority, small parties – the kind that have never tasted political power in Baghdad – could play an outsized role in forming a government. With the prospects of a 2010-style grand Shiite coalition unlikely, small parties could emerge as kingmakers with the latitude to push government in novel directions. - Will turnout be down?
While Iraq is at peace since the defeat of ISIS, the devastation brought by the conflict remains. While Baghdad has designed a system to allow displaced persons to vote in their home elections at any polling station across the country, with an estimated two million people still displaced across Iraq it is unlikely that voter turnout will reach the 62% of previous elections. A reasonable turnout in formerly ISIS-held areas will show if Iraq’s Sunnis have faith in the system to deliver results. - Will violence be down?
With ISIS defeated as a military force, Baghdad’s stage-managing of elections without violence will show the extent of their victory over terrorism. Iraq has never seen parliamentary elections entirely free of terrorist attacks, so even low levels will be a telling sign. - Will there be accusations of fraud?
Since 2014, Baghdad adopted a system of electronic voting equipped with biometric detectors as a means to deter low-level voter fraud. While this may succeed in deterring simple forms of fraud, we will see if it lessens accusations thereof. The existence of vote-buying by prominent parties is widely understood, a fact which a losing party could use as an excuse to delegitimize results.
Ultimately, however, what we learn from the electoral results will be only half of the story – the real test will be in the government formation negotiations to follow. But tomorrow’s elections will set the stage for a new order in Baghdad, and potentially major developments for Iraqi democracy.
PS: For more context, here is the half-hour VoA Encounter show Dr. Daniel Serwer did with Bilal Wahab and Carol Castiel Thursday, before the election:
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