Balderdash

Secretary of State Pompeo today tried to fill the gaping hole of Iran strategy, which the Trump Administration has neglected despite its frequent Tehran-bashing. Here are the American objectives Pompeo outlined:

First, Iran must declare to the IAEA a full account of the prior military dimensions of its nuclear program, and permanently and verifiably abandon such work in perpetuity.

Second, Iran must stop enrichment and never pursue plutonium reprocessing. This includes closing its heavy water reactor.

Third, Iran must also provide the IAEA with unqualified access to all sites throughout the entire country.

Iran must end its proliferation of ballistic missiles and halt further launching or development of nuclear-capable missile systems.

Iran must release all U.S. citizens, as well as citizens of our partners and allies, each of them detained on spurious charges.

Iran must end support to Middle East terrorist groups, including Lebanese Hizballah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Iran must respect the sovereignty of the Iraqi Government and permit the disarming, demobilization, and reintegration of Shia militias.

Iran must also end its military support for the Houthi militia and work towards a peaceful political settlement in Yemen.

Iran must withdraw all forces under Iranian command throughout the entirety of Syria.

Iran, too, must end support for the Taliban and other terrorists in Afghanistan and the region, and cease harboring senior al-Qaida leaders.

Iran, too, must end the IRG Qods Force’s support for terrorists and militant partners around the world.

And too, Iran must end its threatening behavior against its neighbors – many of whom are U.S. allies. This certainly includes its threats to destroy Israel, and its firing of missiles into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It also includes threats to international shipping and destructive – and destructive cyberattacks.

This giant wish-list is to be achieved by “the strongest sanctions in history.”

I certainly understand why the Administration wants these things. But sorry, but no way. There is no reason at all to believe that China, Russia, or India will join in those sanctions, which means Iran will be able to export oil to its main customers and obtain required technology–admittedly not the world’s best–from one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers. Europe is also moving to set up mechanisms to circumvent any secondary US sanctions by avoiding the US financial system. That’s been tried before without much success, but this time there are giant incentives to make it work so that European companies can deal with Iran.

Pompeo also said, apropos of uranium enrichment:

So we’re not asking anything other than that Iranian behavior be consistent with global norms, global norms widely recognized before the JCPOA. And we want to eliminate their capacity to threaten our world with those nuclear activities.

This is just false. There is no global norm against enrichment, which can be done by dozens of countries that aren’t pursuing nuclear weapons.

And he openly appealed for regime change, strangely suggesting it should come from the top:

Iran’s leaders can change all of this if they choose to do so. Ali Khamenei has been supreme leader since 1989. He will not live forever, nor will the Iranian people abide the rigid rules of tyrants forever. For two generations, the Iranian regime has exacted a heavy toll on its own people and the world. The hard grip of repression is all that millions of Iranians have ever known.

Now is the time for the supreme leader and the Iranian regime to summon the courage to do something historically beneficial for its own people, for this ancient and proud nation.

Pompeo concluded with a bizarre appeal to Iran based on Administration policy vis-a-vis North Korea, which is visibly failing:

If anyone, especially the leaders of Iran, doubts the President’s sincerity or his vision, let them look at our diplomacy with North Korea. Our willingness to meet with Kim Jong-un underscores the Trump administration’s commitment to diplomacy to help solve the greatest challenges, even with our staunchest adversaries. But that willingness, that willingness has been accompanied by a painful pressure campaign that reflects our commitment to resolve this challenge forever.

The US would need virtually universal support from others to do even one-tenth of what Pompeo has outlined. The goals are clear. The means are inadequate, based on an over-estimate of US power vis-a-vis both Iran and North Korea. Balderdash.