Tea leaves won’t say who won

In a post last month, I attempted to forecast the outcome of Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections. With the final count in, what do the results reveal?

1. Will Abadi win a majority?

No – Far from first place, Abadi’s coalition landed in an embarrassing third, beaten both by populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and militia leader Hadi al-Ameri. This puts Abadi’s future as prime minister in question, but it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s done for. Abadi can count himself lucky, in fact, that electoral victory went to the only coalition without an obvious pick for prime minister. Abadi’s likely path forward will be to ally with Sadr and parlay his international reputation to win a high position, possibly the prime ministry, in a Sadrist-aligned government.

2. Will Maliki be eclipsed by Ameri?

Yes – With Ameri winning nearly twice the number of seats, Maliki comes out of this election greatly diminished. Much like Abadi, Maliki’s political future depends on his ability to build alliances with stronger figures in order to remain relevant, although Maliki’s divisive reputation gives him far fewer avenues to explore.

3. Will Hakim and Sadr’s rebranding pay dividends?

Emphatically yes – Sadr’s victory, however narrow, also means a victory for his strategy of cross-sectarian anti-corruption populism. While Hakim’s seventh-place showing hasn’t won him the same attention as Sadr, his new party can claim a small victory in winning more seats (19) than Hakim’s former associates in ISCI and Badr combined.

4. Is this the debut of a Kurdish opposition?

No, with qualifications – With a paltry 9 seats between them, this election marks a massively disappointing debut for the upstart Nishtiman alliance. So disappointing, in fact, that multiple Kurdish parties have called the results of the election into question. While tangible evidence is scarce, six out of seven major Kurdish parties (all but for the PUK) have called for a recount of votes in Kurdish-majority areas, particularly those controlled by the PUK.

5. Is the PUK done for?

No, with qualifications – With a loss of only 3 seats since previous elections, the PUK appears to have emerged unscathed from its recent crisis. This steady appearance is undermined, however, by allegations of vote rigging targeting the PUK strongholds in particular. While these allegations have been mostly vague on specific claims, charges have been widespread enough that the they may force the PUK to respond. Much depends on the next few weeks, but it appears for now that the PUK remains strong.

6. Will small parties earn enough to gain influence?

Unclear – While Sadr’s coalition has achieved an undisputed victory, it is far from overwhelming. Sadr’s low numbers (54 of a total 329 seats) mean he could still be outmaneuvered by his rivals in negotiations to form a government. See Ameri and Maliki’s meeting with delegates from the KDP and PUK – an alliance between these four groups would corral an impressive 162 seats (only 3 seats short of an absolute majority). Smaller parties – that is, those with fewer than 10 seats – make up 19.5% of parliament. Their support may become valuable but it hardly seems decisive at this point.

7. Was turnout down?

Emphatically yes – With a measured turnout of 44.5%, this election had the lowest turnout of any Iraq has seen. Anecdotal evidence suggests that voters stayed home not due to lack of interest, but due to skepticism that voting will bring change. Notably, this depressed turnout is clearest in Shiite-majority regions – the voting rate in the capital in particular dropping by over 30%. More than sectarian discontent, disenchantment with politics seems to have spread across Iraqi society.

8. Was violence down?

Emphatically yes – The near-complete absence of violence around May 12’s vote may be the most important underreported fact around Iraq’s elections. It’s even telling how unsurprising this fact is. While many voters stayed home, it was not fear that kept them away from the ballot box. Whatever Abadi’s political future, history will mark the successful handling of these elections as another point to his legacy.

9. Will there be accusations of fraud?

Yes, with qualifications – As mentioned above, fraud allegations have spread among Kurdish parties. While Iraq’s High Elections Commission has responded to various reports of electoral violations across the country, it has expressed confidence in the general results. Though parliament has been discussing the matter, the IHEC’s statements suggest they believe the impact of fraud was minor. Whether this will settle distrust in the Kurdistan region, which is due for regional elections this September, we can only wait to see.

With elections now over, the real trial begins. Iraq’s newly-elected parliament now begins the arduous process of government formation, where party leaders jostle for influence in the new body. How long until a government emerges is anyone’s guess – much like the May’s elections, the sensible approach is to expect the unexpected.