Day: July 6, 2018
Fixing democracy
Fitim Gashi of Pristina daily Koha Ditore asked some questions last week. I answered:
1. Having in mind the growing alarm about the wave of populism sweeping the Europe and USA, as well as the erosion of democratic safeguards in particular European states, such as Hungary, Poland, what can be said about the state of democracy today? Is it fair to say that democracy is in decline?
A: Democracy is facing serious challenges, but it still has capacity to respond to them. Leaders need to listen more carefully to citizens and try to represent them more fully.
2. Why is this happening? Which are the main factors contributing to the decline of the democracy?
A: It seems to me trade and immigration are the main issues, though in many countries corruption is a contributing factor. We should also recognize that racism and xenophobia are important contributing factors.
3. What can be done to prevent the situation from deteriorating?
A: Reducing the negative impacts of trade and immigration on relatively uneducated people in America and Europe would help. So too would more vigorous defense of a trading regime that has raised living standards and greater recognition that both America and Europe need young workers. I really don’t know what to do about racism and corruption. Exposing them may be the best antiseptic.
4. As it was recently seen in Hungary and Turkey, as well as in many cases in the past, leaders who have shown disregard about democratic norms have been reelected through popular vote. How can that be interpreted? Are people losing faith in democracy?
A: In Turkey, the election was certainly not free or fair. I hesitate to comment on Hungary, because I don’t follow it as much. Demagogues are using democratic forms to enhance their power. The only things that can stop that are the voters, parliaments, the media, and the courts.
5. In Balkans, we have leaders who are in power for decades, while the West, preoccupied with its problems, seems to have chosen “stabilitocracy” over democracy. Do you expect this situation to continue?
A: All countries deal with leaders who have come to power through the constitutional system in place, which is true of the current Balkan leaders. Only occasionally, when there is evidence of gross malfeasance, do the US and Europe weigh in against them, as they did recently in Macedonia against Gruevski. The only conscious choice I know for stability over democracy is in Bosnia, where Germany and the UK initiated a reform effort aimed at preventing the Americans from attempting one more time to change the Dayton constitution to make it more democratic.
6. Which is your opinion about the state of democracy in USA itself?
A: I think we have systemic problems. Our constitution favors states with smaller populations, enabling election of a president like Trump (and George W. Bush in his first term) who failed to win a majority of votes. We also have grossly gerrymandered Congressional districts that enable the Republicans to gain many more seats than the Democrats. And we have allowed Russian interference in our elections. These problems are unlikely to get fixed anytime soon. People who want change are going to have to come out to vote.
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This is not a loyal American
President Trump, noting that Putin is KGB, says he’s fine:
I might even end up having a good relationship [with Mr Putin], but they’re going ‘well, president Trump, be prepared, president Putin is KGB’, this and that…Do you know what? Putin’s fine, he’s fine, we’re all fine, we’re people. Will I be prepared? Totally prepared – I have been preparing for this stuff my whole life, they don’t say that.
Even the conservative Heritage Foundation, one of the organizations that helped assemble the list of his possible Supreme Court nominees, is warning that Trump is wrong:
Things to remember before
@realDonaldTrump travels to Europe: -Russia is the aggressor—Ukraine is the victim -Crimea belongs to Ukraine -NATO & US troops in Europe serve our national interests -Europeans must spend more on defense -Putin’s track record shows he can’t be trusted
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Pompeo is in Pyongyang, trying to turn a vague one-page statement from the Singapore summit into a serious plan for denuclearization of North Korea. That would require first an inventory of their nuclear and missile programs as well as years if not decades to dismantle them. There isn’t much chance it is really going to happen. Kim Jong-un is continuing to expand his missile and nuclear capacities, even as Trump was announcing that the danger has passed. There is no record of the North Koreans telling the truth about their strategic weapons, which they regard as guaranteeing the survival of their regime.
As if that were not enough, the US kicked off its trade war with China today, provoking the anticipated (and permitted under international rules) retaliation. So US exports to China now face more serious barriers, while the price of imports from China to American consumers will rise. Both moves hurt core Trump constituencies: agriculture and manufacturing. The trade war also means that China will not maintain strong sanctions on North Korea.
On the home front, the Administration will fail to meet a court-ordered deadline to reunite migrant children with their parents, as it appears to have no idea which children belong with which parents. Even when it succeeds, it hopes to hold even asylum-seeking parents and children together in prison, not free them pending court hearings (for which most asylum-seekers in fact do appear). To boot, EPA Administrator Pruitt has finally resigned. He faced 15 or so ethics investigations, most due to his use of public office for private gain. That is the textbook definition of corruption, though no doubt he’ll drag out the proceedings and eventually be pardoned.
While Trump addresses adoring crowds that cheer his bravado, the United States is declining rapidly in the world’s estimation, especially among America’s friends. Our European allies are girding themselves for the upcoming NATO summit, where Trump is expected to make it clear he has little regard for them (as he did at the recent G7 meeting). They in turn will do everything they can to maintain the nuclear deal with Iran, straining the Alliance further. Trump has abandoned America’s friends in southern Syria, putting Israel and Jordan at risk. His move of the US embassy to Jerusalem has effectively killed any hope of progress with the Palestinians for the foreseeable future.
Relative American power was bound to decline as other countries prosper and acquire more advanced technology. Trump is accelerating that process by abandoning allies, cozying up to adversaries, weakening America’s moral standing, and damaging America’s exporters as well raising prices for its consumers. The President has visited golf clubs more than 100 times while in office but has not once visited US troops in a war zone. What more evidence do we need that he is not a loyal American?
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