Day: July 11, 2018
Cause to celebrate
Why should you be pleased that NATO has invited Macedonia to join the Alliance? It’s a small country (2 million people) tucked away and landlocked on the Balkan peninsula without even much of a highway running through it. One quarter of its population is Albanian and 10% are all sorts of other things: Serbs, Croats, Vlachs and who knows what. It only declared independence in 1991 and has spent most of its existence squabbling with Greece, which claims Macedonia’s name exclusively for one of its provinces.
First and foremost, the NATO invitation will, one hopes, give both Macedonia and Greece the courage to end the squabbling. Skopje and Athens have negotiated an elaborate agreement that changes the official name (for all uses) to Republic of Northern Macedonia and resolves a host of contentious details concerning the country’s language, cultural history, textbooks, minorities, irredentist claims, economic cooperation….All that is needed is final approval in the two countries’ parliaments and in a referendum in Macedonia. That is a high water mark in a 25-year effort to resolve the issue.
Second, the invitation sends a strong signal in two directions:
- to the other countries in the Balkans who are not yet members of either NATO or the EU.
- to the Russians, who have been determined to slow if not block NATO expansion.
The signal to the rest of the Balkans is just this: if you have the political courage to take on and resolve tough issues, the trans-Atlantic institutions will hold their doors open to you. First NATO, then the EU. Solve your inter-ethnic issues and problems with your neighbors, reform your economies and political systems to reduce corruption and prevent state capture, and you will get a place at the table in the two most important alliances ever created.
To the Russians, the signal is just as clear: you may try to block NATO expansion and try to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, but you will not succeed. Even the relatively weak states in the Balkans will stand up to you. Macedonia has already expelled some of your intelligence agents trying to sow dissension from the “name” agreement. Montenegro last year, Macedonia this year. Maybe Kosovo the year after. Then only Serbia and Republika Srpska will stand between the Alliance and a Balkans whole and free. You can try to shore up your proxies, but they stand to gain more joining the West than continuing to bet on Vladimir Putin.
Third, NATO membership will add Macedonia’s small army and military capabilities to an Alliance that needs them. The Macedonians have already served years embedded in the Vermont National Guard in Afghanistan, where their commanding general thought they performed as well as US troops in combat. Who knows where they will be needed next, whether by NATO or the EU military structure? They are still short of the 2% of GDP goal NATO set for 2024, but their invitation gives Macedonia every incentive to reach it, sooner rather than later.
Of course in the scheme of things, “Northern Macedonia” in NATO is a small victory. It isn’t nearly as earthshaking as an American president who can’t find anything good to say about the Alliance while praising the Russian president who attacked the American electoral system. But it’s a good thing and something to celebrate.
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Who can fix Bosnia?
Delvin Kovač of Bosnian website Vijesti.ba asked questions; I replied:
- Should the international community increase its presence in Bosnia, since Bosnian politicians can’t come to an agreement on any important issues regarding Bosnia’s future?
A: No. It may need to adjust its presence, for example by moving all the EU military forces to Brcko to forestall any attempt to seize it by one entity of the other, but Bosnia’s politicians need to learn to deal with their own problems.
- Will Bosnia be sliding into a constitutional crisis after the autumn elections this year, as some politicians already announced such scenario due to unresolved electoral law issue?
A: No. As I’ve explained, there are adequate provisions in the existing Federation constitution to deal with any issues that may arise.
- Bosnian Croat lawmakers refused to attend a session of the lower house of the Federal Parliament because the body recently adopted an election-related law without them. Is boycotting a Parliament maybe a part of a Croat Democratic Party Leader Dragan Covic’s so called “Plan B”?
A: You’ll have to ask him. For me, boycotting is a way of eliminating yourself from the political equation, not getting what you want. If you want to protect your rights, show up.
- A coalition of parties representing Bosnian Serbs in the Government said that it would not allow Bosnia to enter NATO while neighbouring Serbia is not part of the international alliance. Should Bosnia really depend on neighbouring countries Serbia’s and Croatia’s decisions when it comes to foreign policy issues?
A: No. But it is up to Bosnia’s voters to punish at the polls politicians who want to follow foreign leaders rather than their own.
- Milorad Dodik is no longer the only ally of Russian Federation in Bosnia, since it is expanding an influence in Bosnia and Croatia through the Croat Democratic Party Leader Dragan Covic and the group of lawmakers in the Croatian Parliament. Russian Federation is obviously penetrating NATO countries territory increasingly. Is that to be considered dangerous?
A: Yes, but again it is up to voters to punish at the polls those leaders who kowtow to the Russians.
- Dragan Covic said that local parties cannot agree on the solution for the local election in Mostar and that the local election will almost definitely not be held in this city, which faces an indefinite wait for a new municipal council. What do you think is a adequate solution for this problem?
A: I think an adquate solution for this problem is one Bosnians can agree on. I don’t think you should expect foreigners to be very interested any longer in your municipal elections. I spent a lot of time on Mostar at the Dayton peace talks. It is time for you to invest the political energy needed to overcome the problems there.
- What can Bosnian citizens expect if Milorad Dodik and Dragan Covic become the Serb and the Croat member of the Bosnian tripartite Presidency. They both openly call for the destruction of Bosnia and the creation of a para-state – third entity? Who can confront such dangerous politics of the two?
A: Bosnia’s citizens, principally. But the West can be relied upon not to recognize any state that attempts to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Nor will Croatia or Serbia want that.
PS: Here it is in Bosnian.
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