A bad idea whose time should not come
Kosovo President Thaci has made it clear he intends to discuss changing Kosovo’s borders with Serbian President Vucic. He denies this means ethnic partition of Kosovo and calls it a correction of the border, a euphemism intended to mean an exchange of territory:
If the Kosovo-Serbia border correction and the final agreement on mutual recognition are achieved, if such an agreement is of bilateral and balanced, meaning a win-win for both parties, then no one would be against it.
Presumably he is open to trading some or all of Kosovo’s Serb-majority northern municipalities for Albanian-majority territory in southern Serbia. The deal would of course have to include, prior to the land swap, mutual diplomatic recognition. Only sovereign states can exchange territory.
This idea has been widely circulated in recent weeks, but Thaci’s remarks are the first clear confirmation from the Albanian side of the equation. It would not be happening without US and European concurrence. Brussels and Washington have apparently decided that integrating the northern Serb municipalities with the rest of Kosovo is just too difficult, so they have dropped their previous firm opposition.
The border correction, or whatever you call it, is a bad idea, for many reasons:
- The majority of the Serbs in Kosovo as well as the more important Serb monasteries and other religious sites are not in the north. Those south of the Ibar River will be at risk, both short term and long term, if territory is exchanged.
- The exchange would increase support for those Albanians in Kosovo who favor union with Albanian and for those in Macedonia who would like to join such a Greater Albania, potentially destabilizing Macedonia as well.
- Republika Srpska, the Serb-controlled 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina, will want to follow suit, declaring independence and seeking to join Serbia. That will precipitate a comparable Croat move to have the Croat-majority cantons of Bosnia join Croatia.
- The Russians will point to this correction of borders as precedent for what they would like to do with South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, Transnistria in Moldova, and Donbas as well as Crimea in Ukraine.
- They may even like the idea enough to allow Kosovo into the United Nations, which would be a Pyrrhic victory if it then joins Greater Albania, or if China decides still to veto Kosovo membership.
I am still hoping agreement on this bad idea will prove difficult to achieve. Serbia has good security reasons not to give up territory in southern Serbia that lies adjacent to its main outlet to the sea. The Serb Orthodox Church stands to a big loser if this “correction” proceeds. Kosovo has good reason not to precipitate a series of claims to international border corrections that are unlikely to be peaceful. Nor will Pristina’s current politicians thrive in an environment in which Kosovo’s population is anticipating the end of the country’s statehood by merger into Albania. Vetevendosje, a movement that has advocated the option to join Albania, will be the big winner.
A democratic Kosovo and a democratic Serbia should be able to come to terms on protection of their respective minority populations without this perilous exchange of territory and populations. Of course that is precisely the problem: neither is a consolidated democracy and both are run by ethnic nationalists who still lack adequate respect for minorities. It shouldn’t be a big surprise that an ethnic nationalist administration in the US and an EU in which ethnic nationalism has gained lots of ground weaken in their commitment to democracy and the rule of law, but it is not a welcome development. This is a bad idea whose time should not come.
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13 thoughts on “A bad idea whose time should not come”
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There will be – if at all – minor („cosmetic“) corrections affecting a small number of villages in Bujanovac and Mitrovica environs
Will not change the ethnic make- up of either Country and thus have no such ripple effects outlined in your otherwise excellent assessment
Its the „new realism“ in the Balkans
The real issue is Russian/Hungarian media meddling, the neo-Ottoman forays ( Izetbegovic et al), Gulf states’ investments in BiH ( but also in Serbia) and – above all – China’s rapid expansion in SEE.
The Balkans Silk Road and the 16&1 format are the real challenge both for the region and the EU
Lets thus support a settlement along the Thaci/Vucic lines
I am painfully aware – it is a disappointment for us old Balkans hands. But hey, the times they a-changin’
Wolfgang Petritsch
I do not see any way to limit this to a few villages, or to do it without Serbia gaining the northern municipalities. The ripple effect in my view has nothing to do with changing the ethnic make-up of either country. All of the meddling to which you refer will be made worse, not better, by a concession of this sort to territorial ethnic nationalism.
With all due respect, Mr Petritsch, the fact that you are employed by a Law office in Vienna that lobbies for/advises Mr Vučić does not speak in favour of your objectivity in this case.
http://www.lansky.at/en/team/of-counsel/wolfgangpetritsch-austria-en/
Furthermore your “new realism” conveniently forgets the majority of Kosovo Serbs who live below the proposed partition line and who are, by the partition plan, punished for being the only ones in Kosovo who have so far attempted some sort of inter-ethnic coexistence. Their exodus is unavoidable if the partition does indeed happen, and anyone who has any knowledge of the realities on the ground cannot deny this.
This is not realism but simply an attempt at cruelty and ethnic engineering that will further deteriorate respect for European values in the region.
Finally, thank you, Mr Serwer, for being a voice of reason during these dangerous times for multiethnic Kosovo!
We most certainly need more voices speaking out against this solution, especially on the Kosovo Albanian side. There have been a few, but we surely need more.
Too late! Your own country made this possible. Chaos started at Trump’s inauguration day.
You can not ask Albanians to forget the idea of merging Kosovo and Albania, not anymore. You promised that borders will not be changed…look at our flag, sad.
You are responsable for this. You were indulgent with Serbia, never asked them for apologies.
Now it’s time to make your own critic. We are here because of you, you should have blocked and isolated Serbia untill she recognize Kosovo and asked for apologies. You let them find the right moment to reverse the situation, here we are…
Call it partition or “correction of borders”, a Pandora box will be opened and the situation in the Balkans will trigger a wider European instability as Mr. Serwer wisely pointed out.
The minorities in Kosovo (especially Serbs) will find themselves in even more difficult position as Belgrade would leave them without any concrete protection (nothing has been discussed in Brussels on protection of Orthodox holy sites for example). So far we could see that Kosovo Government does not respect its own laws and will do everything to turn Kosovo into an ethnic clean Albanian territory in a couple of years if not earlier. Eventually this would become a clear ethnic partition.
The change of position vis-a-vis partition scenario by some circles in the EU and US is a tragic mistake which will be just a beginning of much wider series of problems and will not serve neither Serbia, nor Kosovo and particularly not EU. The both protagonist of this quick fix have their history in the Kosovo war in 90ies and cannot be credible contributors to a durable peace. Both societies are autocratic and burdened with collusion of politics and organized crime.
As a result to the Taci-Vucic deal nationalist movements and groups in EU countries will be encouraged in their separatist ideas to “correct” the borders. Belgrade-Pristina dialog will be remembered as a historical example of mismanagement and, definitely…. the new times will begin.
I’m in complete agreement with Serwer here. Partition/land swap/territorial adjustment whatever you want to call it is a bad idea for Kosovo and will negatively affect those Kosovo Serbs living south of the Ibar the worst. Unless this is some elaborate scheme cooked up by Vucic and Thaci to prove that there’s no solution to a frozen conflict, I cannot see anything positive coming from revisiting an option that all sides have categorically dismissed all these years earlier.
Partition is a great idea. It’s a reason to feel that air for ethnic Albania from Gazivoda to Korfu.
As for Serbia, we all know Sandjak and Vojvodina need to declare independence and be free of Serb realm. It’s a matter of time.
As for Republika Srpska, they should dissolve and repopulate the empty land of Sumadija. Croats and Bosniaks need to split the autonomous region of BiH called Srpska in half.
As for Macedonia, no reason to partition it. In a few years it becomes an Albanian majority.
I thank Petrisch and all thinkers of this great partion.
Albanians from Turkey, about six million, should return to Nish /Kurshumlija district. It’s their land.
Pasaluk of Beligrad w tiny Sumadija is never close to realization.
Thank you.
The President of Kosova Hashim Thaci, clearly fears the personal situation with the Special Court.
So he is in agreement with Vucic of Serbia and maybe even with Edi Rama of Albania to find a solurion through third actors in Balkans.
Hashim Thaci is trying to give himself political leverage to negotiate his own situation.
He is open to anything just to guarantee himself political leverage…
Hashim Thaci anyway doesnt trust USA and my personal intuition sends me to a path of thinking that the main game of Hashim Thaci is Erdogan of Turkey.
We know here in Balkans that the influence of Erdogan towards Hashim Thaci, Alexander Vucic and Edi Rama is really huge and very very strong.
This idea of Hashim Thaci to negotiate with Serbia for the correction of borders which means exchange of territories, is dangerous and wellthought I believe, and even wellprepared together with Vucic and maybe Edi Rama.
Hashim Thaci knows very well that this idea opens a lot of trouble in Balkans and even wider…
Thaci knows that all the burden goes to the US and the EU…
Still by openin this topic, he is not just testing the US Administration, he is calling Erdogan to have a role in the new solution in Balkans…
By opening this idea that can bring war in Balkans, Hashim Thaci is trying to call Erdogan in the role of Peacemaker, so this way he will be considered a Regional Absolute Power in Western Balkans…
And after that Erdogan can be the political shelter for the future of Hashim Thaci…
Why do I think that?
Because, it makes no sense for US and EU to have Serbia and Kosova bargain territories now…
It will make their life, their regional and global situation very complicated…
They can not open the Box of Pandora…
The only one whom I believe needs conflictuality so he can confirm himself like the new Father, Fatih, Sultan, is Erdogan…
All I mean by this ideas is that Erdogan’s influence in Balkans will produce a lot of dangerous conflictuality so he can bring here his peace as the indulegence from the Fatih…
Erdoganism is as much dangerous as Putinism in Balkans and more…
Article of mr Serwer is very intelligent. I would add one important point why the “correction” is not going to happen.
Kosovo is still formally a part of Serbia despite the fact that temporary government seized power with foreign assistance. Countries that broke international law to perform aggression on Serbia in 1999 and recognized Kosovo in 2008 will lose power at some moment. Serbia has the obligation to wait for the right moment to overthrow illegal authorities in Pristina and take Kosovo back. Why should Serbia recognize Kosovo to negotiate on these corrections? EU integration is no longer so attractive carrot, as world becomes multi-polar. Times are indeed changing, as Petrich said in his earlier comment.
Мr. Serwer is right. Partition will bring war to the Balkans in the long run. As for Petritsch is a biased, irrelevant bureaucrat. Since when is EU endorsing ethnically clean states?? The biggest fan for Kosovo independence is Vucic. He wants to give away Kosovo in because he promised that to the EU. That is the reason EU is tolerating his dictatorship in Serbia. In return he wants Western support to stay in power. Vucic only wants power he is no better than Joseph Kabila in DR Congo. As for Kosovo status quo is the best option until a suitable moment for Balkans Peace Conference.