Peace picks – August 13 – 19

1. Discussion – Indian Railways and coal: An unsustainable interdependency | Monday, August 13, 2018 | 3:30 pm – 5:00 pm | Brookings Institution | Register Here

Coal is a key part of the equilibrium of Indian Railways since passenger fares don’t cover all the costs. Unfortunately, this equilibrium is at risk. Already the average distance of coal travelled has fallen 30 per cent in five years. Raising coal freight fares disproportionately compared to its distance and volume has led to higher cost of coal delivered and therefore to higher electricity costs for consumers – by approximately 10 paise/kWh across India. This is unsustainable.

Even more worryingly for the equilibrium is the rise of renewable energy and improved efficiency of power plants – these will lead to historical growth of coal transport coming down measurably. Indian Railways business model of “overcharging” coal while keeping passenger fares low could lead to coal (and thus thermal electricity) becoming uncompetitive.

This is a public event. RSVP pkamboj@brookingsindia.org to attend.

Speakers:

Moderator: Rahul Tongia – Fellow, Brookings India

Rakesh Mohan – Distinguished Fellow, Brookings India; former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India; and formerly Chairman, National Transport Development Policy Committee

Vivek Sahai – Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation; and former Chairman, Railway Board

Girish Pillai – Member (Traffic), Railway Board

2. Iran: Protests, Sanctions, and Regime Viability | Wednesday, August 15, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here

On August 6, President Trump officially snapped back sanctions on Iran as part of his “Maximum Pressure” campaign on the country. This is the second concrete step taken by the administration this year, following their formal withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May. The restored sanctions prohibit transactions by countries and private entities involving everything from dollar notes and gold to commercial aircraft. The decision to reimpose these sanctions has drawn opposition from Iran and U.S. allies alike.

Given recent protests in the country over economic woes and ineffective government, the sanctions come at a particularly challenging time for Iran. What remains to be seen is whether new economic pressure will prompt Iran to revive its nuclear ambitions or pressure Tehran into renegotiating a nuclear accord.

On August 15, Hudson Institute will host a panel to discuss Iran, the effectiveness of the U.S. “Maximum Pressure” campaign, the regime’s ability to navigate sanctions, and the country’s widening protests. Panelists will include Michael Pregent, Hudson Institute senior fellow; Alireza Nader, an independent Iran scholar; Behnam Ben Taleblu, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Mariam Memarsadeghi, co-founder and co-director of Tavaana.

3. Brazil’s Election Takes Shape | Thursday, August 16, 2018 | 10:00 am – 10:45 am | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Note: Conference call dial-in information will be sent to participants two days prior to the event. 

Latin America’s largest democracy officially kicks off one of its most consequential presidential contests on August 16. Over 14 candidates are vying for the presidency, with five standouts. How might the campaign take shape in the lead-up to the first round on October 7?

Join us via conference call on the day that the campaign officially begins—Thursday, August 16—for a conversation from 10:00 to 10:45 a.m. EDT, in partnership with the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI), on what to look for during the campaign and how Brazil’s next president may tackle some of the key issues necessary for Brazil to enter a new era of growth and stability.

For a preview of our conversation, keep an eye out for Ricardo Sennes’ Spotlight publication, to be launched on August 9, where he dissects the potential implications of political and economic reform, foreign direct investment, and security policies laid out by Jair Bolsonaro, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Geraldo Alckmin, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the PT nominee.

Speakers:

 Roberta Braga – Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council

Ricardo Sennes – Nonresident Senior Brazil Fellow, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council; Co-Founder, Prospectiva Consulting

Roberto Teixeira da Costa – Member, Board of Trustees, Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)

Henrique Rzezinski – Member, Board of Trustees, Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)

4. Turkey Sanctions – Navigating a Historic Bilateral Crisis | Thursday, August 16, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 2:00 pm | The Washington Institute for Near East Policy | Register Here

Earlier this month, the Trump administration issued sanctions against Turkey for its continued detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson. Ties between the two governments have been under strain for years, but the latest incident has seemingly touched off the most severe crisis in recent memory, including a plunge in Turkish economic indicators. As the historic dispute unfolds, what are the future prospects and pitfalls for the bilateral relationship?

To discuss these issues, The Washington Institute is pleased to host a Policy Forum with Amanda Sloat, Max Hoffman, and Steven Cook, moderated by Institute senior fellow Soner Cagaptay.

Amanda Sloat is a Robert Bosch Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe. Previously, she served as deputy assistant secretary for Southern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean affairs at the State Department.

Max Hoffman is the associate director of national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, focusing on Turkey, the Kurdish regions, and U.S. defense policy, among other issues.

Steven Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. An expert on Turkish politics, he has appeared in numerous international media outlets, including as a columnist with Foreign Policy magazine.

This event will be held at The Washington Institute, 1111 19th Street NW, Suite 500, Washington, DC, 20036. It will also be broadcast live on our website.