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Even discussion can destabilize

I did a long interview with Pristina daily Kosova Sot Monday, before I’d heard about Chancellor Merkel’s statement ruling out border changes in the Balkans. It was published today: 

1. Recently, the Kosovo President has discussed the topic of separation in talks with Serbia as well as the idea of ​​the territory exchange. How do you value this?

A: I don’t like it. No country worthy of European Union membership needs to trade away part of its population. Equality under the law has to apply to everyone.

2. President Hashim Thaci is insisting for, as he says, a border correction, by taking the Presevo Valley by Kosovo, but Thaci does not mention what Serbia wins in such a case. How do you comment president Thaci’s policy, knowing the fact that he, until recently, was against partition and border changes?

A: I imagine he is responding to President Vucic’s frequently expressed interest in the four northern municipalities in Kosovo. There can be no one-way swap. It has to be an exchange.

3. Kosovo’s constitution prohibits Kosovo from joining another country while specifying where the borders are. Does that mean that President Thaci is violating the constitution?

A: Anyone can propose an amendment to the constitution. Advocating one does not violate the constitution, but it does put the President in an awkward position of not appearing to defend something he has sworn to uphold.

4. This year, it was necessary to set aside the Special Court that will judge the former KLA leaders, who are today in the main political positions in Kosovo. For many, the opening of territorial bargaining with Serbia is also seen as a consequence of the fear of justice and a kind of bazaar but how much can it be true in this middle and according to you why the Special Court is not yet operating?

A: I think the Special Court is operating, it just hasn’t brought any indictments. You’ll have to ask them why not. I know of no reason why discussion of land swaps would prevent such indictments. Do you?

5. Do you feel that Trump administration has a change of attitude regarding the partition of Kosovo?

A: The change of attitude is not so much about partition as about whether such things should be discussed, or not. An ethnic nationalist Administration, which is what the U.S. currently has, finds it harder to rule out ethnic nationalist solutions like a land swap than a liberal democratic Administration, like those of Obama, Bush and Clinton.

6. There is news that even Prime Minister of Albania Edi Rama interfered in this process of territorial negotiation. Do you really believe that?

A: You’ll need to ask him. I don’t think the politicians in either Pristina or Tirana are going to be much interested in moving to the other place if Greater Albania comes into existence.

7. If the division occurs, what are possible consequences for Kosovo but also for the region? Could this affect the situation in Macedonia, in Bosnia etc?

A: Yes, partition of Kosovo would end the presence of Serbs south of the Ibar, lead to instability in Macedonia and 3-way partition in Bosnia. None of that will occur peacefully.

8. Kosovo has an obligation to make the Association of Serbian Municipalities but is afraid it can bring autonomy within Kosovo, that is, a sort of ‘Bosnification’. Can this be avoided?

A: The constitutional court has made it absolutely clear how this can be avoided.

9. Is it practical the idea of ​​holding a referendum on the end of talks with Serbia?

A: No.

10. There are debates in Kosovo on who should lead the dialogue and there is an opposition to president Thaci. Who should, according to you, make a lead in the dialogue?

A: I think the Unity Team that conducted the Ahtisaari negotiations was a fine idea. I don’t know if it can repeated.

11. Do you believe that the Haradinaj government, which barely has any numbers for its existence, will lead to the end of this process or should a country go to the elections and then enter the dialogue?

A: That’s a question for your President and parliament to answer, not me. The question is whether a new election would produce a clearer and more functional majority. It is hard to know in advance.

12. What influence do you think Russia has in the region and Kosovo through Serbia in these developments?

A: Russia is doing its best to destabilize the region. It is opposing the “North Macedonia” referendum, it is arming Dodik’s police, and it is encouraging partition talk, from which Moscow stands to gain. I wouldn’t rule out another assassination attempt against one or another Balkan leader.

13. Often, from various diplomats, Kosovo is asked to seek creative solutions. What kind of creativity is needed, regarding to you?

A: I’m in favor of the kind of creativity that makes Kosovo a NATO and EU member as soon as possible. That means no partition, equal treatment for all citizens, an Association of Serb Municipalities within the parameters laid out by the constitutional court, and a government committed not just to legislation consistent with the acquis communautaire but also to implementing the acquis as rapidly as possible.

14. What is the role of EU in these developments around the talks, knowing that EU was mediator until now?

A: So far as I am aware, the EU is still mediator and will preside over any discussion of land (and people) swaps. I doubt Vucic and Thaci will come to any agreement. Each one wants what he wants without giving anything up. Thaci will want the north, especially the water supply there, to remain inside Kosovo. Vucic will not want to give municipalities to Kosovo that lie along Serbia’s main route to the sea. But even discussion of land swaps can be destabilizing and lead to serious problems in the region and beyond. If I were Vucic and Thaci, I would want to avoid being blamed for that.