Denial changes nothing and everything

Republika Srpska President Dodik Tuesday got the entity’s Assembly to revoke a 2004 report that confirmed its army’s murder of about 8000 mostly men and boys near Srebrenica in 1995.

The Assembly action changes nothing. The murders occurred, most of the remains have been identified, and the murderer in chief, Ratko Mladic, as well as his political overseer Radovan Karadzic have been convicted at the International Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. Dodik and his minions cannot change the facts or undo the convictions. The mass graves containing bodies with hands tied and gunshot wounds to the back of their heads do not disappear because of a speech or a resolution in an Assembly.

At the same time, it should change everything. Genocide deniers should have no place in power in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina. Most of the country’s population cannot be expected to tolerate official acts that challenge the dignity and humanity of mass murder victims. Dodik has confirmed what his enemies always say: Republika Srpska is founded on atrocities against its enemies that it denies and should not have been allowed to continue to exist after the 1995 peace agreement.

It was however permitted to remain, as one of two constitutional “entities” within Bosnia and Herzegovina, occupying 49% of its territory with a population that is now 83% Serb due to ethnic cleansing during the war and resistance to non-Serbs returning after the war. There is nothing that can be done to change that, short of renewed warfare no one wants.

Dodik should not however get off untouched. The Americans have already levied travel and financial sanctions against him. They should now expand those to include all members of the Republika Srpska National Assembly who voted to revoke the Srbrenica report. The Europeans need to act as well. They have been hesitant about sanctioning individuals, partly due I understand to judicial challenges. If it is impossible to reach agreement at the level of the European Union, individual European states should prohibit travel and financial sanctions by all supporters of revoking the report. The US and EU should also join together in denying World Bank funding for projects in Republika Srpska, until it reinstates the Srbrenica report.

Some will argue this would be over-reacting. If the Assembly action changed nothing, why should anyone get excited about it? The answer is that Dodik and his minions are pushing the envelope. They are trying to see how far they can go without precipitating a serious response. They have made it eminently clear that their escalation ladder will culminate in a declaration of independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, a move that is guaranteed to restart the war and absorb gigantic international resources. It would be far better to stop the escalation now than to let it go further.

Dodik has been emboldened in part by talk about “border correction,” “land swaps,” and “ethic partition” in Kosovo. German Chancellor Merkel ruled out border changes in the Balkans earlier this week, but the Americans have still not been heard from on the subject. They need to speak out forcefully against such propositions. Doing so would not only calm the situation in Kosovo but also send a clear signal to Dodik and his Russian backers.

It is hard to get excited about anything in the Balkans these days, as the rest of the world is in such miserable shape. The State Department has issued a strong statement. But words no longer suffice. Stopping instability before it starts and grows is far cheaper and easier than intervening afterwards. Dodik menaces a peace that has held for 23 years. The Americans and Europeans can still stop him from creating havoc. They should do it.