September 17, 2018 - peacefare.net

Day: September 17, 2018

Demilitarized zones aren’t safe

Posted in Daniel Serwer - September 17, 2018 - 0 Comment

The Washington Post reports:

“The territory controlled by the Syrian opposition must be demilitarized,” Erdogan told reporters in the Russian town of Sochi. “But together with Russia, we will put our efforts into clearing those territories of radical elements,” he said, referring to al-Qaeda-linked extremists in Idlib.

What could go wrong?

Everything. Such “safe zones,” where civilians are herded for supposed protection, are vulnerable. There are foreseeable problems:

They can’t protect themselves but will have to rely for protection on Turkish and Russian forces as well as restraint by the regime and Iranian-backed militias. The Russians are unreliable at best. The regime, the Iranians, and their friends are pernicious.
Provocateurs will hide in these safe zones and give nearby Syrian and Iranian-backed forces an excuse to attack them, most likely using barrel bombs and other stand-off weapons.
Eventually, the Syrian opposition people who take refuge in such safe zones will be turned over to a regime that has been killing “reconciled” fighters and likely also civilians.
People who fail to take refuge in what amount to unsafe zones will be subjected to the kind of brutal bombardments that have characterized the regime takeovers of East Ghouta, Aleppo, Daraa and other former opposition-controlled area.

To be effective, civilian protected zones would require the presence and active assistance of impartial military forces, which simply don’t exist in Syria, as well as a kind of restraint neither the regime nor the Iranian-backed forces have shown. Woe betide the innocent civilian who thinks she will be safe in a demilitarized zone.

What would be better? Agreement for the Turks to take over all of Idlib and do what they can to disarm and arrest extremists would be better. Non-extremist fighters would then cooperate with the Turks and ensure the safety of the entire province, provided the regime and its friends would agree not to attack. That is what the regime should want if it looks forward to the eventual reintegration of Idlib with the rest of the country.

But Assad is not into peaceful reintegration. He is trying to prove his state so fierce (the word Steve Heydemann uses to great effect) that no one will ever try to buck his rule again. This is achievable, as the Algerian regime has demonstrated, and Egypt’s President Sisi is trying to confirm. When you’ve gone to war for more than seven years and presided over the deaths of more or less half a million people, people would be stupid not to be afraid. Now all Assad has to do is kill a few thousand more and he’ll have achieved a large part of his objective.

He will still however have a big chunk of his country outside his regime’s: control: the north and east are in the hands of the Turks and Americans, supported by Turkman, Kurdish and Arab allies. If they could somehow act in a unified way, Ankara and Washington would have some serious cards to play in the coming diplomacy over post-war Syria. We’ll have to wait and see whether they can somehow make their common interests in not returning the areas they occupy to Syrian and Iranian control prevail without a political transition in Damascus over their differences with respect to the Kurds. Either they hang together, or they hang separately, in Benjamin Franklin’s striking phrase.

Here are Putin and Erdogan announcing their agreement:

Tags : Syria, Turkey

More on partition

Posted in Daniel Serwer - September 17, 2018 - 1 Comment

I did this interview with Janusz Bugajski for RTK on September 4, but it was only broadcast last Friday, September 14:

I don’t think anything has happened in the interim to change my views.

Tags : Balkans, Democracy and Rule of Law, European Union, Russia, United States

Peace Picks September 17 – 23

Posted in Rory Coleman - September 17, 2018 - 0 Comment

As China becomes more assertive internationally, it has begun to encounter conflict and instability in fragile states worldwide. Nowhere is this truer than in Myanmar, where China is a key actor in the peace process and has come to the defense of the government over the Rohingya crisis in Rakhine State. Assessing China’s role in and perspectives toward Myanmar’s internal conflicts can offer important insights into conflict dynamics inside the country and help inform potential U.S. peace support policies.

For six months this year, USIP convened a group of 13 senior experts to examine China’s involvement in Myanmar’s internal conflicts—particularly those in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan states—and peace process. Join USIP on September 17 for a discussion with the group’s co-chairs on the main findings of their report, which is the first in USIP’s China Senior Study Group series examining China’s influence on conflict dynamics around the world.

Speakers

Nancy Lindborg, opening remarks
President, U.S. Institute of Peace

Ambassador Derek Mitchell
President, National Democratic Institute
Co-chair, USIP China-Myanmar Senior Study Group

Daniel Twining
President, International Republican Institute
Co-chair, USIP China-Myanmar Senior Study Group

David Steinberg
Distinguished Professor of Asian Studies Emeritus, Georgetown University
Member, USIP China-Myanmar Senior Study Group

Jennifer Staats, moderator
Director, East and Southeast Asia Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace
Executive Director, USIP China Senior Study Groups Series

Please join the Center for Strategic and International Studies for a Smart Women, Smart Power conversation with Ambassador (ret.) Ertharin Cousin, former executive director of the World Food Programme. She will discuss global food insecurity and hunger and the role they play in other security issues, including violent extremism.

Ambassador Cousin served as executive director of the World Food Programme from 2012 to 2017. It’s the world’s largest humanitarian organization, with 14,000 staff who aid some 80 million people in 75 countries. She previously served as the U.S. ambassador to the UN Agencies for Food and Agriculture in Rome.
Prior to her global work on food security, Ambassador Cousin was executive vice president and chief operating officer of America’s Second Harvest, which is now known as Feeding America, a confederation of more than 200 U.S. foodbanks that serve more than 50 million meals annually.

She currently serves as the Payne Distinguished Lecturer and Visiting Fellow at the Center on Food Security and Environment and the Center on Democracy, Development and Rule of Law at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. She is also a Distinguished Fellow of Global Agriculture at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ambassador Cousin is a Chicago native and holds degrees from the University of Illinois at Chicago and the University of Georgia School of Law. She was named one of TIME’s “100 Most Influential People,” and Foreign Policy magazine’s “500 Most Powerful People on the Planet.” She has also been named to the Forbes “100 Most Powerful Women” list and as the Fortune “Most Powerful Woman in Food and Drink.”

Featuring:

Kathleen H. Hicks

Senior Vice President; Henry A. Kissinger Chair; Director, International Security Program

Nina Easton

Senior Associate (Non-resident)

Beverly Kirk

Fellow and Director for Outreach, International Security Program, and Director, Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative

U.S. policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is shifting rapidly. After the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference brought Israelis and Palestinians together in direct negotiations for the first time, an international consensus emerged that the eventual solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would involve the creation of a Palestinian state existing in peace and security with the state of Israel. But an actual agreement has proved elusive. Today, the idea of a two-state solution is under serious challenge due to political shifts in the Israeli and Palestinian camps, changes on the ground, and changes in the US stance. Do we need new ideas based on the emerging one-state reality? Or do we need new determination and political will behind a two-state solution?

Please join the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy for a discussion of their latest report on future pathways for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Edward P. Djereijian of the Baker Institute and Marwan Muasher from the Carnegie Endowment will present their findings of their report. An expert panel discussion will follow.

A light lunch will be served from 12:00 to 12:30 p.m. The presentation and panel discussion will begin at 12:30 p.m.

EDWARD P. DJEREJIAN

Edward P. Djerejian is the director of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and the former U.S. ambassador to Israel and Syria.

MARWAN MUASHER

Marwan Muasher is vice president for studies at Carnegie, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East.

NATHAN J. BROWN

Nathan J. Brown is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and a nonresident senior fellow with the Carnegie Middle East Program.

ZAHA HASSAN

Zaha Hassan is a visiting fellow with the Carnegie Middle East Program and human rights lawyer.

GILEAD SHER

Gilead Sher is a former Israeli senior peace negotiator and chief of staff to Prime Minister Ehud Barak. He heads the Center for Applied Negotiations (CAN) of the Institute for National Security Studies.

JOYCE KARAM

Joyce Karam is the Washington correspondent for The National.

The threat of violent extremism is evolving. However, significant knowledge gaps continue to pose obstacles to those seeking to prevent and address it. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace and the RESOLVE Network for the Third Annual RESOLVE Network Global Forum on September 20 to explore new research angles and approaches for prevention and intervention of violent extremism in policy and practice.

As the territorial hold by violent extremist organizations diminishes, new problems are emerging as these groups evolve and others seek to manipulate governance and security vacuums to spread their warped mission to new populations and locations. To effectively address dynamic global trends, policymakers and practitioners require a holistic understanding of the nature of violent extremism at both the global and local level.

This forum will build from the RESOLVE Network’s previous efforts to meet the needs of policymakers and practitioners to better address the significant gaps in research, evidence, and data on drivers of violent extremism and conflict. The forum will convene RESOLVE’s partner organizations, international researchers, practitioners, and policymakers for thought-provoking TED Talk style presentations and salon-style discussions in addition to engaging breakout discussions, presenting an opportunity to learn from experts from across the globe and contribute your own knowledge and expertise to the discussion. Join the conversation on Twitter with #RESOLVEForum.

Agenda

8:30am – 9:00am: Informal RESOLVE Stakeholder Meet and Greet

9:00am – 9:20am: Welcome & Introductory Remarks

Ms. Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace, @nancylindborg
Ms. Leanne Erdberg, Director of CVE, U.S. Institute of Peace

9:20am – 10:30am – Session 1: Individual and Social Conduits of Violent Extremism – TED-Talk Style Presentations

Radicalization & Reintegration: Mr. Jesse Morton, Parallel Networks, @_JesseMorton
Neuroscience & Conflict: Mr. Michael Niconchuk, Beyond Conflict, @mcniconchuk
Social Media & New Threats: Ms. Julia Ebner, Institute for Strategic Dialogue, @julie_renbe
Historical Grievances & Data: Dr. Chris Meserole, Brookings Institute, @chrismeserole

10:30am – 11:30am: Breakout Discussions

11:30am – 1:30pm – Morning Salon: Secularism in the Lake Chad Basin

Dr. Ousmanou Adama, RESOLVE Network Research Fellow – Cameroon
Dr. Brandon Kendhammer, RESOLVE Network Principal Investigator – Cameroon
Dr. Remadji Hoinathy, RESOLVE Network Research Fellow – Chad
Dr. Daniel Eizenga, RESOLVE Network Principal Investigator – Chad
Dr. Medinat Adeola Abdulazeez, RESOLVE Network Research Fellow – Nigeria
Dr. Abdoulaye Sounaye, RESOLVE Network Principal Investigator – Nigeria
Moderator: Dr. Jacob Udo-Udo Jacob

12:30pm – 1:30pm: Lunch

1:30pm – 2:45pm – Session 2: From Complex Systems to Meaningful Interventions – TED-Talk Style Presentations

Role of Traditional Media: Dr. Emma Heywood, University of Sheffield, @emmaheywood7
Everyday Peace Indicators: Dr. Pamina Firchow, George Mason University, @everydaypeacein
Comedy & Creative Communications: Mr. Pryank Mathur, Mythos Labs, @PriyankSMathur
Nonviolent Action: Dr. Maria J. Stephan, U.S. Institute of Peace, @MariaJStephan

2:45pm – 3:45pm: Breakout Discussion

3:45pm – 5:00pm – Afternoon Salon: Practical Applications of Research to Policy and Practice

5:00pm: Closing Remarks & Reception – Mr. Pete Marocco, Deputy Assistant Secretary and Senior Bureau Official for the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations (CSO)

Keynote remarks:

Honorable Randy Schriver
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs

Panel discussion to follow on natural resources, innovation, and cultural and economic power, featuring:

Nancy Sung, Senior Science Advisor, National Science Foundation;
David Rank, Senior Advisor to the Cohen Group and former Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassy Beijing;
Andrew Gulley, Mineral Economist at the United States Geological Survey; and
Leon Clarke, Senior Scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute.

Breakfast will be served.

Recent political tumult and the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency have driven anxious commentators to lament the collapse of a post-1945 liberal world order. Invoking the supposed institution building and multilateralism of the last 70 years, the order’s defenders urge U.S. leaders to restore a battered tradition, uphold economic and security commitments, and promote liberal values. Others caution that nostalgia has obscured our understanding of the old order’s hard edges and its shortcomings, and has forestalled a serious assessment of the changes that will be needed going forward.

Panelists will discuss the core principles of the liberal international order — both as those principles have been professed by its defenders and as they have been practiced by U.S. and world leaders. They will also consider the present and future of the liberal order. What revisions, if any, are necessary? Should U.S. leaders embrace the old liberal international order and reaffirm American leadership within that order? Or is it time to reassess U.S. grand strategy and bring U.S. goals in line with modern-day realities? Join us for an important and timely discussion.

Featuring Patrick Porter, Professor of International Security and Strategy, University of Birmingham and Senior Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute; Michael Mazarr, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation; Jake Sullivan, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Co-chair, National Security Action; moderated by Christopher Preble, Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute.

China’s rising military capabilities and increased assertiveness in the East China Sea pose a challenge to the Japanese Ryukyu Islands and by extension the United States, which maintains a strategic military presence on the largest island of Okinawa. Along with the islands of Taiwan and the Philippines, the Ryukyu Islands represents a geographic chokepoint for China’s naval and civilian activities. As a strategic impediment to China’s power projection, the island chain has been a major focal point of Beijing’s recent military modernization and expansion.

In their recent report U.S.-Japan Strategic and Operational Cooperation on Remote Island Defense, General James Conway USMC (Ret) and Hudson Senior Fellows Seth Cropsey and Jun Isomura lay out recommendations for how the United States and Japan can strengthen their operational and strategic cooperation in defense of the Ryukyus.

Please join Hudson Institute on September 21 for a discussion of the report, the importance of joint U.S.-Japanese defense of Japan’s southwest islands, and the broader significance of the bilateral security relationship between the two countries for the region.

Speakers

General James T. Conway Speaker

Fmr. Commandant, USMC (Ret)

Seth Cropsey Speaker

Senior Fellow and Director, Center for American Seapower

Jun Isomura Speaker

Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Tags : Burma, China, Extremism, Israel/Palestine, Japan, Security

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Day: September 17, 2018

Demilitarized zones aren’t safe

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