A great deal to gain, and little to lose

Macedonia’s referendum Sunday asks its electorate:

Do you support EU and NATO membership by accepting the agreement between Republic of Macedonia and Republic of Greece?

The “Prespa” agreement in question is one that will change the country’s official name to Republic of North Macedonia and enable it to enter NATO next year and start accession negotiations, with entry whenever it is fully qualified and the existing members ratify its accession. The referendum is nonbinding and needs to pass with 50% voting yes and 50% f registered voters going to the polls.

The majority requirement will likely be met, but a boycott may prevent voting from reaching the 50% of registered voters. Even then the parliament could proceed with the agreement, which will require constitutional changes voted by a 2/3 majority as well as legislation. But proceeding in that way is not pretty and will present enormous challenges.

The agreement changes the country’s official name but leaves its citizens and everyone else with the freedom to continue to call it Macedonia, themselves Macedonians, and their language Macedonian. This to me is analogous to the United States of America, my country’s official name: most of refer to America (the beautiful) from time to time, ourselves Americans (despite Canadian as well as Central and Latin American objections), and our language English (which many English people may doubt but tolerate). Ambiguities and contradictions abound in language and identity.

Some object to this agreement because it entails limitations on sovereignty: the right of the Republic of Macedonia to call itself what it wants, not only internationally but also internally. That is correct, but many international agreements entail limitations on sovereignty. That is the point: sovereigns can do what they find in their interest, including limiting their own sovereign powers. The agreement also entails limitations on Greek sovereignty. It will no longer be able to veto NATO or EU membership. That is the basic bargain here: a change in official name in exchange for an end to the Greek veto of Macedonia’s primary foreign policy goals.

The agreement does other things as well: it ends any irredentist claims to each others’ territory as well as cross-border incitement, it affirms the distinct historical and cultural contexts in which “Macedonian” and “Macedonian” are used (thus ending Greek claims to exclusivity in their use), it provides a mechanism for reviewing and revising historical and other presentations (including textbooks), and significantly increases bilateral diplomatic, political, economic, scientific, and other cooperation. This is an agreement that aims to end a more than 25-year dispute that has plagued the Balkans and caused serious delays in Macedonia’s political and economic progress.

The Balkans has suffered in the past decade from a sense of stagnation, disappointment, and even despair. The agreement, if implemented, will also give new momentum to the region. While Macedonia’s citizens should of course be concerned first and foremost with their own interests, they should also be aware that the Prespa agreement will re-energize the Euroatlantic ambitions of others, especially in Kosovo, Serbia, and even Bosnia and Herzegovina. Forward motion is what keeps bicycles, and Balkan countries, from instability.

So I would urge Macedonia’s citizens to turn out and vote yes. I will continue to call your country Macedonia until you ask me to stop. Your culture and history will suffer no harm from this agreement, as its main provisions on those issues are subject to future negotiation and Macedonian approval. Your entry into NATO will reduce ethnic tensions and give your army enormous opportunities to improve its effectiveness and contribute to peace and security worldwide. Your opening of negotiations for EU accession will encourage vital political and economic reform. You have a great deal to gain, and little to lose.