Peace Picks: October 8 – 12

Posted in Tal Marom - October 8, 2018 - 0 Comment

The future of the rules-based trading system has never looked more uncertain. Due to negotiation paralysis at the World Trade Organization, the rulebook on trade and investment has not been updated in nearly 25 years. There is deep concern that the actions of the two largest economies in the world may further strain the multilateral trading system. China’s rise has not seen the emergence of a market-driven economy. Rather, its market distorting policies have created major trade irritants in areas such as overcapacity for steel production and intellectual property theft. The Trump administration is calling for a complete reset of United States trade policy, skeptical of multilateral trade agreements and the World Trade Organization. It has reverted to managed trade practices and the tariff is its tool of choice. The tariff war that the United States and China are currently engaged in risks escalation and may prove difficult to wind down any time soon.

However, other countries are doubling down on multilateral trade liberalization efforts, producing a series of ambitious mega trade agreements. Japan and the European Union have been at the forefront of this effort, recently signing a trade agreement that covers a third of world GDP and will eliminate on almost all tariffs between them. Japan also led the effort to rescue the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, which is expected to go into effect next year. Against this backdrop, reform of the World Trade Organization has gained greater urgency.

On October 8, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies will host a panel of experts to examine the challenges facing the rules-based trading system in this geopolitical moment. They will discuss how we arrived at this critical juncture with protectionism on the rise, the parallels to previous eras of protectionist backsliding, and the survival of the World Trade Organization and what can be done to reform it. They will also address potential off-ramps for the U.S.-China trade war, how to prevent major rifts between the United States and its trade and security allies, and the role that Japan and others can play in sustaining the rules-based trading system.

Speakers:

Mireya Solis: Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies

Edward Allen: Bernard L. Schwartz Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

Soumaya Keynes: U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist

Toshihiro Nakayama: Professor, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University

Widening inequality and the loss of jobs to trade and technology has left a significant portion of the American workforce disenfranchised and skeptical of governments and corporations alike. These economic shifts are changing what it means—and feels like—to be middle class in America.

On October 10, the Future of the Middle Class Initiative at Brookings will host Governors John Hickenlooper (D-Col.) and John Kasich (R-Ohio) for an event marking the launch of a new book by Brookings Senior Fellow Isabel Sawhill, “The Forgotten Americans: An Economic Agenda for a Divided Nation.”

The event will feature a conversation with Governors Hickenlooper and Kasich, moderated by Brookings Senior Fellow Richard Reeves. The governors will take questions from the audience.

After the governors’ discussion, Sawhill will present her new policy agenda for advancing the economic interests of a group she calls “the forgotten Americans.” The event will conclude with a panel of experts responding to Sawhill’s proposals. Panelists will take audience questions.

Speakers

John R. Allen: President, Brookings Institution

Richard R. Reeves: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies; Director, Future of the Middle Class Initiative

The Hon. John Hickenlooper: Governor, State of Colorado

The Hon. John Kasich: Governor, State of Ohioc

Isabel V. Sawhill: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies; Center on Children and Families

Panel Discussion: Elaine Kamarck, Jared Bernstein, Bill Kristol, Ruth Marcus, and Eric Rodriguez

What will the recent changes in U.S. policy—including recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, terminating assistance to Palestinians and UNRWA, and closing the Palestinian representative office in Washington—mean for the future of U.S.-Palestinian relations and the Palestinian national project? Will the accelerated pace of settlement construction and attempts to normalize Israeli control over the occupied Palestinian territory create irreversible realities with long-term ramifications for Palestinian self-determination and regional security?

Please join Carnegie for a discussion with Hanan Ashrawi, Robert Malley, and Daniel Levy. Michele Dunne will moderate.

Speakers

Hanan Ashrawi is a member of the PLO Executive Committee and the Palestinian Legislative Council and is a writer, activist and scholar.

Daniel Levy is the president of the US/Middle East Peace Project (USMEPP) and former senior adviser to Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and justice minister Yossi Beilin.

Robert Malley is president and CEO of the International Crisis Group and former special assistant to U.S. president Barack Obama and senior adviser for the Counter-ISIL Campaign.

Michele Dunne is the director and senior fellow of the Carnegie Middle East Program.

Stimson Center, UNA National Capital Area, and the Global Challenges Foundation (GCF) are co-hosting a public discussion on the future of global governance. The aim is to reflect on lessons learned from previous reform, innovation, and renewal efforts, to draw attention to new initiatives, and to demonstrate ways that those interested in contributing to reform can become engaged in the movement. The GCF supports risk awareness and facilitates governance innovation aimed at mitigating global catastrophic risks.

Speakers

Brian Finlay, President and CEO, The Stimson Center (Welcome)

Fredrik Karlsson, Executive Director, Global Challenges Foundation (Introduction of the Global Challenges Foundation and New Shape Process)

Panel Discussion With:

Bruce Jones, Vice-President and Director of the Foreign Policy Program, Brookings

Augusto Lopez-Carlos, Senior Fellow, Edmund Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University (on leave from the World Bank)

Brett Schaeffer, Jay Kingham Senior Research Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs, The Heritage Foundation

Kate Sullivan, Head of Partnerships, Global Challenges Foundation

Megan Roberts, Deputy Director for Policy Planning, United Nations Foundation (co-moderator)

Richard Ponzio, Director, Just Security 2020 Program and co-chair, UNA-NCA Peace & Security Committee, The Stimson Center (co-moderator).

The Vatican recently reached a historic agreement with China when it allowed the Chinese government to appoint Catholic bishops in exchange for Beijing acknowledging the Pope as the leader of the Catholic church. On October 11, Hudson Institute will host a discussion to consider papal and Chinese motives for the deal, its diplomatic consequences, and the history of the Vatican’s relations with authoritarian communist nations. While additional details remain unclear, the agreement represents the first major change in relations between the Vatican and China since 1951 when the two states ended diplomatic relations.

Panelists will include Nina Shea, a Hudson Institute senior fellow and director of the Center for Religious Freedom; Daniel Mark, former chairman of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom; and Ted Lipien, president and executive director at FreeMediaOnline.org. The discussion will be moderated by Seth Cropsey, a Hudson senior fellow and director of the Center for American Seapower.

Speakers:

Nina Shea: Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Religious Freedom, Hudson Institute

Daniel Mark: Former Chairman, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom

Seth Crospey: Senior Fellow and Director, Center for American Seapower, Hudson Institute

Ted Lipien: President and Executive Director, FreeMediaOnline.org

In light of polling for the first round of the election on October 7^th, it seems clear that the country will face a stark choice in the presidential runoff between far-right Congressman Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist former mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad. The presidential race has been characterized by an environment of fear and political intolerance. Yet the critical challenges that will confront the victor demand moderation and an ability to appeal to the majority of Brazilians who fall closer to the middle than the extremes of the political spectrum. Given the deteriorating fiscal situation, the next government will need to act quickly to reassure Brazilians and the world that it is up to the task—a task made all the more challenging by the deep partisan divide and widespread popular frustration with the failed political system and political leaders.

Join the Brazil Institute on October 12^th for a discussion of potential economic and political scenarios based on the two final presidential candidates, and a look at what might lie ahead for Brazil after the end of this divisive election cycle.

Speakers

Paulo Sotero: Director, Brazil Institute

Fernando Rodrigues: Executive Director, Poder360

Antonio Britto: Board Member, Brazil Institute Advisory Council

Monica de Bolle: Director of the Latin America Program, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University

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