You decide

Below are some comments on the results of Sunday’s Bosnian elections. But as a prelude I should note that almost no one in Washington is paying attention to them. America’s focus is elsewhere: on the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs, on military and economic competition from China, and on a fractured domestic polity headed for its own important elections November 6. The United States will want Bosnians to find their own solutions to their own political problems, within the context of a sovereign Bosnia and Herzegovina. Europeans and Americans may be able to help, but you have to decide how your country is to be governed.    

Erdin Halimic of Sarajevo daily Dnevni Avaz asked questions. I answered: 

Q: Can we ask you for a comment on the election results in BiH? Can you comment individually on each new Member of the BiH Presidency? Šefik Džaferović? Milorad Dodik? Željko Komšić?

A: All I’ve seen so far is the presidency results: Dodik, Dzaferovic, and Komsic. That is not enough to comment on more than the presidency. Dodik and Komsic come from very different places: one favors independence for Republika Srpska, which would make it an unrecognized Russian puppet state, and the other a Bosnia and Herzegovina with serious European ambitions. Dzaferovic is widely thought to represent continuity with Izetbegovic. We’ll have to wait and see what they are able to do together. It is not very promising.

Q: Do you expect a government crisis in the coming period and why?

Government formation in parliamentary systems is often difficult. We’ll have to see the results at all levels to make an informed guesstimate, but even then we could be wrong.

Amil Ducic of web portal Klix.ba also asked questions, to which I replied: 

Q: Milorad Dodik is elected as member of Presidency of BIH. Is this kind of paradox for you because he stated enormous times that BiH is impossible, now he is head of this state?

A: It is potentially a serious problem if he uses his position to prevent functional governance in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But we’ll have to wait and see.

Q: Željko Komšić is elected as well, for the third time. This is slap in face of Dragan Covic. As we expected the reactions are harsh from HDZ. Is it for you a surprise that prime minister of Croatia Andrej Plenkovic showed a very harsh reaction that Komsic is not a good choice for BiH?

A: Of course the reaction from the HDZ is harsh. They lost. Maybe they should worry more about the program they run on than about whether it is a slap in the face of Covic. Plenkovic’s reaction is no surprise. He too is HDZ.

Q:  This year’s elections could be result of big election fraud: There is plenty of information about it. What is your comment?

A: I’ll be guided mainly by the OSCE on this issue. They saw problems but so far as I understand have not said that the presidential results were strongly affected by fraud. The main problem with elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not at the polling places, but in the political system, which mainly rewards nationalist parties that control state patronage. But the elections are competitive and people have other options. They don’t use them as much as I might like, but that is a their choice, not mine.