Differing agendas

Delvin Kovač of the online Vijesti.ba asked questions; I responded: 

1. Kako biste ocijenili rezultate Općih izbora u Bosni i Hercegovini?

SERWER: Rezultati još uvijek nisu potvrđeni, ali nisu bili ni dobri. Imam osjećaj da oni predstavljaju volju većine Bosanaca, koji se ipak ne slažu oko mnogo čega. U FBiH je došlo do značajnog usitnjavanja političke scene, ali mi je i dalje nejasno šta će to značiti za formiranje vlasti, koje je u parlamentarnim sistemima često otežano i prolongirano.

2. U naredne četiri godine dužnost članova Predsjedništva BiH obnašat će Šefik Džaferović, Željko Komšić i Milorad Dodik. Vaš komentar?

SERWER: Kao i na prethodnim izborima u BiH, rezultati su bili dvosmisleni. U Predsjedništvo su se vratili ljudi sa vrlo različitim programima. Dodik i Komšić su na suprotnim krajevima nacionalnog političkog spektra. Džaferović se, pod pretpostavkom da će nastaviti Izetbegovićevom linijom, nalazi negdje između.

3. Kakva budućnost očekuje BiH s Dodikom u njenom Predsjedništvu? Smatrate li da će on blokirati put BiH ka evropskim i NATO integracijama?

SERWER: Dodik će učiniti sve što je u njegovoj moći da odvoji Republiku Srpsku, ali će to raditi djelomično pokušavajući i pripremiti RS za članstvo u EU. Stoga se nada da će pridobiti simpatije i podršku u Briselu za ideju o odvajanju RS-a od FBiH. Neće ništa učiniti u pogledu članstva BiH u NATO-u i pokušat će da to spriječi ukoliko nekim čudom dođe do takvog scenarija.

Šta bi po Vašem mišljenju mogao biti naredni potez Dodikovog koalicionog partnera Dragana Čovića, nakon što je poražen u trci za člana Predsjedništva BiH iz reda hrvatskog naroda?

SERWER: Pretpostavljam da će Čović pokušati koristiti poziciju HDZ-a da bude kočničar. Ustav BiH pruža mu mnoge mogućnosti u tom pogledu.

Here it is in English: 

1. How did you see the Bosnian 2018 elections results in general?

Results still aren’t confirmed, but they weren’t pretty. My sense so far is that they represent the will of most Bosnians, who don’t agree on a lot of things. There was considerable scatter to non-major parties in the Federation. It is not clear to me yet what this will mean for government formation, which is often difficult and prolonged in parliamentary systems.

2. In the next four years, we will have Željko Komšić, Šefik Džaferović and Milorad Dodik as it’s tripartite Presidency members? What is your comment?

Like previous elections in Bosnia, the results were ambiguous: for the presidency, they returned people with very different agendas. Dodik and Komsic are at opposite ends of the ethnic nationalism political spectrum. Dzaferovic, assuming he will continue Izetbegovic’s line, is somewhere in between.

3. How bright is Bosnian future with Milorad Dodik being member of it’s Presidency? Do you think he is going to try and block Bosnia and Herzegovina on it’s path towards European union and NATO integrations?

Dodik will do everything he can to establish RS’s separateness, but he will do that in part by trying to prepare the RS for EU membership. He thereby hopes to win sympathy and support in Brussels for the idea of separating from the Federation. He will do nothing for NATO membership and try to obstruct it if by some miracle it starts to happen.

4. Since Dodik’s coallition partner Dragan Čović lost the elections and is no more a Presidency member, what do you think will be the next Čović’s move?

I assume Covic will try to use the HDZ’s position as a spoiler. The Bosnian constitution may provide him with ample opportunities to do that.