Jamal’s fate
We still don’t know precisely what Jamal Khashoggi’s fate is: was he abducted in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul? Did he die there or elsewhere? Was he murdered or was his death unintentional?
What we know is that he has disappeared. The last sighting was his entry into the consulate. That makes his fate an issue for the Saudis to clarify. They haven’t bothered. Beyond denying responsibility for his disappearance, Riyadh has said almost nothing.
Others are saying a lot. President Trump, while declaring he will get to the bottom of the disappearance, initially emphasized that Jamal was not a US citizen and that his (grossly exaggerated) $110 billion in arms sales to Riyadh will have to go ahead no matter what. Under pressure, the President is now promising “severe punishment” if Saudi Arabia killed Khashoggi. The Congress is pressing the Administration for an investigation and threatening sanctions against Saudi Arabia.
Turkey is busily leaking videos of suspicious movements of Saudis into and out of Istanbul and the consulate, as well as letting on that they have audio and video of what happened inside the consulate. Jamal’s Washington Post employers and many other news outlets are devoting valuable space to insisting on clarification and expressing their dismay that it has not been forthcoming. Many Washington think-tank colleagues are publishing vociferous protests and testimonials to a courageous journalist.
The paucity of hard facts makes it difficult to say more. Ankara and Riyadh have agreed to a joint committee to pursue the investigation. But there is little likelihood it will come up with anything if the Saudis don’t want it to. That perhaps is the most damning signal at present. If Jamal were alive, or had left the consulate alive, why would Saudi Arabia not have demonstrated that already?
The brouhaha over Jamal’s disappearance is unlikely to amount to much more than verbal protest. Turkey can do little damage to Saudi Arabia, with which it is already at odds. The Trump Administration has wedded itself to the Kingdom, which it needs for the campaign against Iran. Washington still has lots of issues with Turkey, even after the release Friday of an American pastor arrested two years ago. Trump will stick with the Kingdom as his favored ally in the Gulf. He has no real alternative.
The larger significance of Jamal’s still undetermined fate is this: the spirit of open inquiry and freedom of expression that he practiced and championed is evaporating. Russia’s use of chemical weapons against “turncoats” in Britain, Duterte’s murderous rampage against drug dealers in the Philippines, Iran’s arming of Hizbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Syria and Iraq, and Trump’s denunciations of the press as “enemies of the people” are creating new norms: states can violently attack their opponents whenever and wherever they like. Unless they are caught red-handed murdering innocents, the consequences are likely to be minimal. Maybe I should say even if they are caught red-handed.
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It will be interesting to see how this impacts the transition of power in KSA. Salman is still King and the Crown Prince is now on shaky ground. The ineptitude he’s displayed and disruptions to the normal process for the diffusion of power within the royal family may lead to a forced reset for the King. It’s likely that the transition doesn’t go well if the King dies in the near term.