peacefare.net

Trapped

Secretary of State Pompeo spent Tuesday in Riyadh, where he helped the King and Crown Prince shore up their claim that they knew nothing of the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The King’s ignorance may be believable. Mohammed bin Salman’s is not, if the Turkish claim is true that members of his security entourage were among the Saudis who assembled at the consulate the day Khashoggi was killed and left quickly thereafter. We’ll need to await the official results of the Turkish investigation to be sure of that. 

But what we know already is that the US administration has chosen to back the Saudi monarchy to the hilt. It needs the Kingdom for its efforts to counter Iran, fight Sunni extremists, keep oil prices down in the runup to next month’s election, and deliver the Palestinians to a less than satisfactory peace agreement with Israel. Even an American administration less concerned about arms sales and Saudi investments in Trump real estate might hesitate to lower the boom on the Saudis.

President Trump is all in with the Kingdom. He insists on the presumption of innocence and echoes the possibility it was a “rogue operation,” underlining as well that Jamal was a Saudi subject, not a US citizen. Trump says he wants to know what happened, but he hasn’t backed the Khashoggi family call for an international investigation. His interest in protecting journalists from the wave of violence engulfing much of the world is minimal. They are, after all, just “enemies of the people.” He wants this whole thing to blow over as quickly as possible.

Many in Congress on both sides of the aisle are saying they won’t let it happen. Some are calling for the Crown Prince’s head to roll (figuratively, not literally). Others want sanctions, freezing or ditching of arms deals, an end to US support for the war in Yemen, or withdrawal of the US ambassador. Conveniently, there is none–the Deputy Chief of Mission is Charge’ d’affaires. It would not be wise to leave the embassy in the hands of anyone below that level, not least because good communication with the Saudis is vital no matter what Washington decides to do.

None of this is likely to happen anyway. Foreign policy is largely a presidential prerogative. Trump likes the Saudis, who gave him a rousing welcome on his first trip overseas (remember the sword dance?). He also needs them. Son-in-law Jared Kushner’s peace plan isn’t likely to float no matter what, but without the Saudi backing it is nothing. Pushback against Iran using what has come to be termed an “Arab NATO” is meaningless without the Kingdom out front. Ditto the fight against Sunni extremism. The Saudis delivered $100 million for reconstruction in the US-occupied area of eastern Syria the day Pompeo arrived in Riyadh. Oil prices could go to $100 and more just before the November 6 election if the Saudis let it happen. They threatened as much the day after the word “sanctions” was uttered in Washington.

The American administration is trapped by its own objectives into supporting the King and Crown Prince, trying to minimize the fallout from Jamal’s disappearance, and forging ahead to ensure that the Kingdom remains the linchpin of Gulf security. We could still see some movement in Congress, perhaps in favor of an independent international investigation. But neither the monarchy nor the president would want that to happen.

I knew and liked Jamal Khashoggi, who struck me as someone genuinely supportive of the governing system in Saudi Arabia while advocating more space for freedom of expression. Even if he were a complete stranger, I would find it hard to imagine how anyone would want to do him harm for what he wrote in the Washington Post and elsewhere. If the current Turkish-leaked reports are true, or anything like them, what happened is simply unacceptable and those responsible should be held accountable. 

The Americans aren’t the only ones who have trapped themselves: the Saudis have too, in a system that is unable to tolerate even moderate criticism. I hesitate to say dissent because Jamal was far from qualifying as a dissident, even if he expressed doubts about the wisdom of some royal decisions. At least in public and in private conversation, he accepted the Saudi governing system but wanted it to open up. The women who have been imprisoned for organizing the protests against the ban on driving are of the same ilk. For all our sakes, I hope the Kingdom will use this tragedy, whatever its reality turns out to be, to reflect on what is truly needed for state security, and what measures taken in the name of security are not only wrong but may cause serious harm. The Americans should join them in that reflection. 

PS: Here is the The Heat episode I participated in on this subject yesterday: