The time has come

Kosovo has decided to begin the process of adopting legislation that will eventually convert its lightly-armed Kosovo Security Force into an army. Serbia is opposed and warns of consequences. I hope that is as empty a threat as the the threat Kosovo’s army will pose to Serbia.

Kosovo aims for a force of 5,000, thoroughly integrated into NATO from the first. It will be something like 10 years before that level is reached, and possibly another 10 more before the force is fully capable, provided Pristina can find the financial resources needed. The Kosovo army will never be a match for the Serbian army of more than 40,000 (plus 50,000 reserves). Even if constituted as a territorial defense force, a fully developed and equipped Kosovo army would be able to do little more than slow a Serbian advance for a week or 10 days. The real opposition to a Serbian Army invasion would come from citizen mobilization, not from a formally constituted army.

Nor would a properly constituted Kosovo army integrated with NATO pose a significant threat to Serbs inside Kosovo. The threat from disorder and riot is much larger, as we saw only too well in March 2004 when Albanians attacked Serb communities, churches, and other religious sites. The main instrument for keeping internal order should of course remain the Kosovo Police Force, which is the most trusted institution in the country and has prevented any repetition of the rioting for almost 15 years. May they continue to succeed.

The real reason for Serb opposition to a Kosovo army has to do not with threat to Serbia or Serbs but with Belgrade’s own threat to Kosovo. Serbia still claims all of Kosovo as its sovereign territory and resists any moves that undermine that claim, even the withdrawal of a now largely pointless UN Mission that Belgrade views as symbolizing Security Council resolution 1244, which makes vague and not dispositive reference to Yugoslav sovereignty. 

Belgrade still has levers to pull. Its main effort in recent months has focused on harassing Serbs who join the Kosovo Security Force, in an effort to get them to quit. The intimidation is unfortunately working, since Serbian security forces can reach easily into Serb communities inside Kosovo and have opportunities at the boundary/border to hassle Serbs who live in Kosovo but visit Serbia. 

If Belgrade really were concerned with the threat from a Kosovo army, its best move would be to recognize Kosovo and establish diplomatic relations with it. Kosovo would then design its army not for territorial defense but rather for international deployments, which is really the most important function remaining for the armies of Balkan countries that join NATO. A Kosovo Security Force capable of helping to operate, maintain, and fly the helicopters the Americans want to keep at Camp Bondsteel would be a serious contribution to the Alliance and no threat to Serbia.

The time has come for a Kosovo army. Serbia would do better to reduce the threat environment to which Pristina needs to respond than to continue a quixotic effort to prevent the inevitable.

PS: Here is Petrit Selimi’s summary of Belgrade’s alarmist headlines on the issue: 

Petrit Selimi‏Verified account @Petrit9h9 hours agoMore

Good morning with a taste of fear, loathing and warmongering. Serbian tabloids start the day informing their public “Albanians want war” “Albanians and West will arrest thousands of Serbs” any day now, and that Serbia must “declare occupation of Kosovo if Kosovo gets an army”.

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