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Electoral con

Sure, the immigrant caravan is real. It may even have a few thousand people in it. But it represents no serious threat to the United States, which faces such caravans occasionally and handles them properly without significant press attention. In accordance with US law, individuals present their asylum claims, which require a “well-founded fear of persecution,”  at the border. Some will initially be accepted for adjudication, but most will eventually be turned down. Some migrants may try to sneak across the border. Most will be caught and sent home.

The President has pumped up fear of the caravan for electoral purposes. It resonates with his base, which is located mainly in areas with few immigrants. Areas with more know there is little to fear and much to be grateful for: immigrants do jobs most American citizens would prefer not to do and under current conditions of full employment don’t have to do. Thank the Obama expansion, not the slower growth in jobs under Trump, for that. Immigrants have also founded a good number of America’s most iconic and successful companies. 

The deployment of the US military to the border is part of the con, intended to underline the seriousness of the threat and get Trump supporters to the polls. There is no evidence to support the President’s claim that there are “unknown Middle Easterners” in the caravan. The army will do little at the border but administrative and logistical support for Customs and Border Patrol, which might free up a few agents to process asylum claims. There will be no pitched battle with the unarmed, mostly women and children, who are in the caravan, which won’t arrive at the border for a month or more.

The one clear impact of this con so far is that it inspired the murder of 11 Jews in a Pittsburgh synagogue on Saturday. The perpetrator posted what he was doing: he was “going in” to stop the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, which provides assistance to immigrants after they reach the US, from threatening genocide against “his people.” It should be no surprise that Jewish community leaders and the city’s mayor are not welcoming the President’s visit to Pittsburgh today. The Jewish community leaders are saying he should renounce white nationalism first. The mayor is saying the families should bury their dead first.

President Trump has proved himself really good at conning people. The immigration con is but one example. He spent years before coming to office conning people into buying lousy investments. He notoriously failed to pay numerous subcontractors who worked on his hotel construction projects. His most lucrative business has been licensing his name, not providing goods or services. Nice work if you can get it.

Americans go to the polls next Tuesday, though early voting has started in most states and is booming. The Republicans are running on a platform that says they support health insurance for people with pre-existing conditions, something they have consistently opposed, including in court, but now recognize as popular. They are trying to forget about their giant tax cut for the rich. The President even promised one for the middle class before the election, but that canard couldn’t fly: Congress is already out of session and on the hustings.

Polling still suggests the Democrats will win the House while the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate. But Trump’s approval rating dropped sharply this week, along with the stock market. He has invested heavily in the immigration con. Will Americans buy it, or not?